party2d_estimates agent notes

For repositories on git.seimel.app, use the existing Tea/Gitea token from ~/.config/tea/config.yml for authenticated git push/git fetch operations.
Do not print, log, or expose the token.
Prefer token-authenticated HTTPS over unauthenticated HTTPS or SSH when pushing to git.seimel.app.
Python is forbidden for this project. Public workflow code and documentation must use R, Julia, Stan, and shell only; do not add Python scripts or Python references.
data-setup/run_data_setup.sh is intentionally a no-option public entry point. It downloads script-accessible sources, checks local raw files, rebuilds generated inputs under _local/, compares them to committed data/, and never replaces committed inputs automatically.
This is a public release repository. Commit only publication-ready code, data, documentation, figures, and release metadata. Keep working notes, private correspondence, assessment records, decision logs, draft response material, and non-public planning outside this repository.
Before every public push, run bash scripts/check_public_content.sh. Install the version-controlled pre-push guard with bash scripts/install_public_guard.sh in each local clone.
If material was committed here in error, stop publication work. Removing it in a later commit is insufficient: create a clean replacement history or repository before resuming publication.