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party2d/validation/CASE_SELECTION.md
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2026-08-14 12:26:07 +00:00

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Scale-example selection and interpretation

The scale examples are selected to make the two released dimensions substantively interpretable. They are illustrative reference cases rather than a representative sample or an independent validation of the posterior coordinates. Published party-history research supports the qualitative interpretation of the cases, not their exact estimated values.

Trajectory figure

The connected paths show recognizable changes across countries and political traditions:

  • Hungary: Fidesz (PartyFacts 1691), 1990--2022.
  • Denmark: Social Democratic Party (PartyFacts 379), 2007--2019.
  • United States: Democratic Party (PartyFacts 432), 1944--2020.

All election-year posterior means in these windows form the connected paths. The labelled endpoints include 95% latent-position credible intervals. The manuscript uses published historical research to interpret the broad movements without treating the estimates as causal evidence.

Two-dimensional landmarks

The standalone anchors cover low, middle and high regions of both scales and include cross-pressured combinations:

  • German The Left: 2021 (PartyFacts 1545).
  • German Christian Democratic Union: 2021 (PartyFacts 1375).
  • Polish Law and Justice: 2019 (PartyFacts 1565).
  • UK Conservative Party: 1979 (PartyFacts 1567).
  • French National Front: 2022 (PartyFacts 433).
  • US Republican Party: 2020 (PartyFacts 809).

Every anchor must match the requested party-year exactly. Horizontal and vertical bars show 95% latent-position credible intervals. The machine-readable plotting table retains every path observation and anchor.