Simplify scale figure with accessible colors

2026-08-14 12:38:03 +00:00
parent 1909da3720
commit 9f809bad1e
6 changed files with 31 additions and 69 deletions
@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 # Scale-example selection and interpretation

-The scale examples are selected to make the two released dimensions substantively interpretable. They are illustrative reference cases rather than a representative sample or an independent validation of the posterior coordinates. Published party-history research supports the qualitative interpretation of the cases, not their exact estimated values.
+The scale examples are selected to make the two released dimensions substantively interpretable without overloading the display. They are illustrative trajectories rather than a representative sample or an independent validation of the posterior coordinates. Published party-history research supports the qualitative interpretation of the cases, not their exact estimated values.

 ## Trajectory figure

@@ -12,15 +12,4 @@ The connected paths show recognizable changes across countries and political tra

 All election-year posterior means in these windows form the connected paths. The labelled endpoints include 95% latent-position credible intervals. The manuscript uses published historical research to interpret the broad movements without treating the estimates as causal evidence.

-## Two-dimensional landmarks
-
-The standalone anchors cover low, middle and high regions of both scales and include cross-pressured combinations:
-
- German The Left: 2021 (PartyFacts 1545).
- German Christian Democratic Union: 2021 (PartyFacts 1375).
- Polish Law and Justice: 2019 (PartyFacts 1565).
- UK Conservative Party: 1979 (PartyFacts 1567).
- French National Front: 2022 (PartyFacts 433).
- US Republican Party: 2020 (PartyFacts 809).
-
-Every anchor must match the requested party-year exactly. Horizontal and vertical bars show 95% latent-position credible intervals. The machine-readable plotting table retains every path observation and anchor.
+The figure deliberately omits standalone party-year anchors. Colour-blind-safe colours distinguish the three paths, while redundant line types and point shapes preserve legibility in monochrome reproduction. Horizontal and vertical bars show 95% latent-position credible intervals at each labelled endpoint. The machine-readable plotting table retains every path observation.
@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 id,topic,input,output,status
 1,country coverage,release v0 election-year panel,metadata/country_coverage_v0.csv,complete
-2,historical scale anchors and trajectories,release v0 election-year panel,validation/figures/party_scale_examples.pdf,complete
+2,historical party trajectories,release v0 election-year panel,validation/figures/party_scale_examples.pdf,complete
 4,research workflow,documented source and release workflow,validation/figures/research_workflow.pdf,complete
 5,party-blocked validation,guarded blocked fit with 82 parties and completed post-estimation extraction,validation/outputs/blocked_validation_summary.csv,complete_with_convergence_limitation
 6,predictive coverage,production posterior run run_2026-06-12_09-34-03,validation/outputs/ppc/posterior_predictive_by_dimension_item.csv,complete
@@ -20,7 +20,7 @@ The validation fit retains the production warmup length and four-chain design bu

 ## Reproduction Entry Points

- `plot_scale_examples.R`: historically anchored party paths and scale-reference cases generated from the released election-year panel.
+- `plot_scale_examples.R`: three historically interpretable party paths generated from the released election-year panel.
 - `run_postprocessing.R`: country coverage, scale examples, V-Party sensitivity and partially pooled source-support diagnostics.
 - `validate_uncertainty.jl`: production-chain predictive coverage, calibration and source/item/country/decade breakdowns.
 - `prepare_blocked_validation.jl`: deterministic party-blocked train/test construction.
@@ -50,9 +50,3 @@
 432,"Democratic Party","US",2014,"US Democrats","trajectory",FALSE,"",0.462867505375,0.326761075,0.602355425,0.389843067375,0.309037225,0.471238225,"both_direct_or_nearby"
 432,"Democratic Party","US",2016,"US Democrats","trajectory",FALSE,"",0.388854405625,0.2650008,0.511855575,0.371516706875,0.296737875,0.446610025,"both_direct_or_nearby"
 432,"Democratic Party","US",2020,"US Democrats","trajectory",TRUE,"US Democrats 2020",0.299892256625,0.1963003,0.410606025,0.3345769065,0.263694925,0.405684575,"both_direct_or_nearby"
-1545,"The Left","DE",2021,"Standalone anchors","anchor",TRUE,"The Left 2021",0.05463340125125,0.0205853625,0.104672875,0.2266517688,0.13204575,0.336095325,"both_direct_or_nearby"
-1375,"Christian Democratic Union","DE",2021,"Standalone anchors","anchor",TRUE,"CDU 2021",0.57714137175,0.45681705,0.69505505,0.536185121875,0.433751725,0.636189175,"text_only_direct_or_nearby"
-1565,"Law and Justice","PL",2019,"Standalone anchors","anchor",TRUE,"PiS 2019",0.230162367175,0.159245575,0.300962375,0.841737028125,0.78973335,0.891444425,"both_direct_or_nearby"
-1567,"Conservative Party","GB",1979,"Standalone anchors","anchor",TRUE,"UK Conservatives 1979",0.863733304625,0.78370345,0.932120225,0.58421918175,0.47261405,0.691922375,"both_direct_or_nearby"
-433,"National Front","FR",2022,"Standalone anchors","anchor",TRUE,"French National Front 2022",0.524320955125,0.398589175,0.645052275,0.829604491,0.73907015,0.911430725,"both_direct_or_nearby"
-809,"Republican Party","US",2020,"Standalone anchors","anchor",TRUE,"US Republicans 2020",0.8507495345,0.77742365,0.917357075,0.721311676375,0.65728435,0.78442835,"both_direct_or_nearby"
@@ -49,31 +49,13 @@ trajectory_rows <- lapply(seq_len(nrow(trajectory_spec)), function(i) {
 })
 trajectories <- do.call(rbind, trajectory_rows)

-anchor_spec <- data.frame(
-  party_id = c(1545, 1375, 1565, 1567, 433, 809),
-  year = c(2021, 2021, 2019, 1979, 2022, 2020),
-  label = c(
-    "The Left 2021", "CDU 2021", "PiS 2019",
-    "UK Conservatives 1979", "French National Front 2022",
-    "US Republicans 2020"
-  )
-)
-
-anchors <- merge(anchor_spec, panel, by = c("party_id", "year"), all.x = TRUE, sort = FALSE)
-if (anyNA(anchors$economic_lr) || anyNA(anchors$galtan)) {
-  stop("One or more declared scale anchors are absent from the release panel")
-}
-anchors$series <- "Standalone anchors"
-anchors$display_role <- "anchor"
-anchors$is_labelled <- TRUE
-
 plot_columns <- c(
  "party_id", "party_name_english", "country", "year", "series",
  "display_role", "is_labelled", "label", "economic_lr",
  "economic_lr_q025", "economic_lr_q975", "galtan", "galtan_q025",
  "galtan_q975", "source_support_class"
 )
-plot_data <- rbind(trajectories[plot_columns], anchors[plot_columns])
+plot_data <- trajectories[plot_columns]
 write.csv(
  plot_data,
  file.path(output_dir, "party_scale_example_plot_data.csv"),
@@ -86,21 +68,15 @@ label_positions <- data.frame(
  label = c(
    "Fidesz 1990", "Fidesz 2022",
    "Danish Social Democrats 2007", "Danish Social Democrats 2019",
-    "US Democrats 1944", "US Democrats 2020",
-    "The Left 2021", "CDU 2021", "PiS 2019",
-    "UK Conservatives 1979", "French National Front 2022",
-    "US Republicans 2020"
+    "US Democrats 1944", "US Democrats 2020"
  ),
  plot_label = c(
    "Fidesz\n1990", "Fidesz\n2022",
    "Danish Social Democrats\n2007", "Danish Social Democrats\n2019",
-    "US Democrats\n1944", "US Democrats\n2020",
-    "The Left\n2021", "CDU\n2021", "PiS\n2019",
-    "UK Conservatives\n1979", "French National Front\n2022",
-    "US Republicans\n2020"
+    "US Democrats\n1944", "US Democrats\n2020"
  ),
-  label_x = c(.84, .36, .12, .33, .73, .36, .11, .65, .14, .84, .58, .88),
-  label_y = c(.36, .93, .32, .49, .33, .27, .16, .48, .93, .51, .91, .78)
+  label_x = c(.84, .36, .12, .33, .73, .36),
+  label_y = c(.36, .93, .32, .49, .33, .27)
 )
 labelled <- merge(labelled, label_positions, by = "label", all.x = TRUE, sort = FALSE)
 if (anyNA(labelled$label_x) || anyNA(labelled$label_y)) {
@@ -113,39 +89,34 @@ trajectories$series <- factor(trajectories$series, levels = trajectory_levels)
 p <- ggplot() +
  geom_path(
    data = trajectories,
-    aes(x = economic_lr, y = galtan, group = series, linetype = series),
-    colour = "grey25", linewidth = .7,
+    aes(x = economic_lr, y = galtan, group = series, colour = series, linetype = series),
+    linewidth = .85,
    arrow = grid::arrow(type = "closed", length = grid::unit(.065, "inches"))
  ) +
  geom_point(
    data = trajectories,
-    aes(x = economic_lr, y = galtan),
-    colour = "grey35", size = 1.1
+    aes(x = economic_lr, y = galtan, colour = series, shape = series),
+    size = 1.4
  ) +
  geom_errorbar(
    data = labelled,
-    aes(x = economic_lr, ymin = galtan_q025, ymax = galtan_q975),
-    width = 0, colour = "grey45", alpha = .65
+    aes(x = economic_lr, ymin = galtan_q025, ymax = galtan_q975, colour = series),
+    width = 0, alpha = .75
  ) +
  geom_errorbar(
    data = labelled,
-    aes(y = galtan, xmin = economic_lr_q025, xmax = economic_lr_q975),
-    orientation = "y", width = 0, colour = "grey45", alpha = .65
+    aes(y = galtan, xmin = economic_lr_q025, xmax = economic_lr_q975, colour = series),
+    orientation = "y", width = 0, alpha = .75
  ) +
  geom_point(
-    data = anchors,
-    aes(x = economic_lr, y = galtan),
-    shape = 21, fill = "white", colour = "black", size = 2.5, stroke = .7
-  ) +
-  geom_point(
-    data = labelled[labelled$display_role == "trajectory", ],
-    aes(x = economic_lr, y = galtan),
-    shape = 16, colour = "black", size = 2.1
+    data = labelled,
+    aes(x = economic_lr, y = galtan, colour = series, shape = series),
+    size = 2.4
  ) +
  geom_segment(
    data = labelled,
-    aes(x = economic_lr, y = galtan, xend = label_x, yend = label_y),
-    colour = "grey55", linewidth = .25
+    aes(x = economic_lr, y = galtan, xend = label_x, yend = label_y, colour = series),
+    linewidth = .3, show.legend = FALSE
  ) +
  geom_text(
    data = labelled,
@@ -155,12 +126,20 @@ p <- ggplot() +
  scale_linetype_manual(
    values = c("Fidesz" = "solid", "Danish Social Democrats" = "dashed", "US Democrats" = "dotdash")
  ) +
+  scale_colour_manual(
+    values = c("Fidesz" = "#D55E00", "Danish Social Democrats" = "#009E73", "US Democrats" = "#0072B2")
+  ) +
+  scale_shape_manual(
+    values = c("Fidesz" = 16, "Danish Social Democrats" = 17, "US Democrats" = 15)
+  ) +
  scale_x_continuous(limits = c(0, 1), breaks = c(0, .25, .5, .75, 1)) +
  scale_y_continuous(limits = c(0, 1), breaks = c(0, .25, .5, .75, 1)) +
  labs(
    x = "Economic: left (0) to right (1)",
    y = "Cultural: cosmopolitan (0) to traditionalist (1)",
-    linetype = "Election-year path"
+    colour = "Election-year path",
+    linetype = "Election-year path",
+    shape = "Election-year path"
  ) +
  theme_minimal(base_size = 9) +
  theme(