# Diagnostics report

Generated: 2026-06-15 16:21:39 CEST
Release: v0
Model positions source: `party_positions_2026-06-12_16-35-01.csv`

## Overview

This report collects the large technical diagnostics that support the Scientific Data Data Descriptor. It follows the structure of the earlier technical appendix: data and item coverage, coding and scale orientation, party-union harmonization, model convergence, and validation. The report is generated from the model-ready inputs and completed model outputs; it is not part of the raw-data setup workflow.

## Data and item coverage

The model combines text-coded item counts, dimension-specific expert placements, and general left-right expert placements. Text items enter as positive/sample counts, expert items enter as aggregated ratings with scale and expert-count information, and general left-right ratings anchor the relationship between the two dimensions.

| source_file | dimension | items |
| --- | --- | --- |
| expert.csv | cultural cosmopolitan--traditionalist | 7 |
| expert.csv | economic left-right | 5 |
| lr_data.csv | general left-right | 3 |
| text_data.csv | cultural cosmopolitan--traditionalist | 11 |
| text_data.csv | economic left-right | 6 |

### Source coverage

| source_file | source | items | observations | party_years | parties | countries | min_year | max_year |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| expert.csv | CHES | 2 | 2639 | 1320 | 390 | 44 | 1999 | 2024 |
| expert.csv | GPS | 2 | 538 | 271 | 271 | 62 | 2019 | 2019 |
| expert.csv | POPPA | 1 | 413 | 413 | 225 | 31 | 2018 | 2023 |
| expert.csv | V-Party | 7 | 21488 | 3076 | 589 | 65 | 1970 | 2019 |
| lr_data.csv | CHES | 1 | 1320 | 1320 | 390 | 44 | 1999 | 2024 |
| lr_data.csv | Morgan | 1 | 471 | 471 | 72 | 11 | 1945 | 1973 |
| lr_data.csv | POPPA | 1 | 416 | 416 | 225 | 31 | 2018 | 2023 |
| text_data.csv | Manifesto Project | 8 | 36008 | 4501 | 713 | 65 | 1920 | 2025 |
| text_data.csv | PolDem | 9 | 2194 | 406 | 93 | 15 | 1972 | 2017 |

## Data coding and item orientation

All indicators are oriented toward the two reported dimensions: economic left-right and cultural cosmopolitan--traditionalist. For interpretability, generated diagnostics report whether higher observed values point toward the public high pole or are reversed for reporting. Original source variable names are preserved in the tables.

### Reversed items

| item | source | dimension | higher_values_indicate | observations | min_year | max_year |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| internationalism_manifesto | Manifesto Project | cultural cosmopolitan--traditionalist | cosmopolitan | 4501 | 1920 | 2025 |
| multiculturalism_manifesto | Manifesto Project | cultural cosmopolitan--traditionalist | cosmopolitan | 4501 | 1920 | 2025 |
| economic_intervention_manifesto | Manifesto Project | economic left-right | pro_welfare | 4501 | 1920 | 2025 |
| social_services_manifesto | Manifesto Project | economic left-right | pro_welfare | 4501 | 1920 | 2025 |
| cultlib_poldem | PolDem | cultural cosmopolitan--traditionalist | cosmopolitan | 299 | 1972 | 2017 |
| euro_poldem | PolDem | cultural cosmopolitan--traditionalist | cosmopolitan | 93 | 1978 | 2017 |
| europe_poldem | PolDem | cultural cosmopolitan--traditionalist | cosmopolitan | 217 | 1972 | 2017 |
| immig_poldem | PolDem | cultural cosmopolitan--traditionalist | cosmopolitan | 236 | 1972 | 2017 |
| welfare_poldem | PolDem | economic left-right | pro_welfare | 349 | 1972 | 2017 |

## Party unions and electoral coalitions

Alliance and union labels are handled through constituent mappings so the released party identifiers represent individual parties. Shared text evidence can inform constituent parties through the union mapping while expert data continue to constrain individual parties directly.

| metric | category | value |
| --- | --- | --- |
| constituent_mappings | all | 106 |
| unique_union_or_alliance_ids | all | 76 |
| unique_constituent_party_ids | all | 100 |
| mappings_by_country | AR | 5 |
| mappings_by_country | AU | 2 |
| mappings_by_country | BA | 1 |
| mappings_by_country | BE | 4 |
| mappings_by_country | BG | 5 |
| mappings_by_country | BR | 6 |
| mappings_by_country | CH | 1 |
| mappings_by_country | CL | 8 |
| mappings_by_country | CZ | 4 |
| mappings_by_country | DE | 3 |
| mappings_by_country | EC | 1 |
| mappings_by_country | EE | 3 |
| mappings_by_country | ES | 3 |
| mappings_by_country | FR | 4 |
| mappings_by_country | GR | 3 |
| mappings_by_country | HR | 4 |
| mappings_by_country | IE | 1 |
| mappings_by_country | IL | 2 |
| mappings_by_country | IT | 8 |
| mappings_by_country | LK | 3 |
| mappings_by_country | LT | 4 |
| mappings_by_country | LU | 1 |
| mappings_by_country | LV | 6 |
| mappings_by_country | MD | 1 |
| mappings_by_country | ME | 1 |
| mappings_by_country | MX | 2 |
| mappings_by_country | NL | 1 |

## Party-family coverage

Party-family classifications are used for construct-validity diagnostics and coverage summaries. The table below reports coverage in the completed model output by family code.

| family | parties | party_years | countries | min_year | max_year |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| soc | 86 | 2892 | 37 | 1944 | 2025 |
| con | 82 | 2425 | 34 | 1944 | 2024 |
| lib | 81 | 2063 | 35 | 1944 | 2025 |
| chr | 41 | 1596 | 24 | 1945 | 2025 |
| com | 49 | 1241 | 27 | 1944 | 2025 |
| right | 50 | 975 | 26 | 1946 | 2025 |
| eco | 30 | 723 | 24 | 1960 | 2024 |
| agr | 12 | 592 | 10 | 1944 | 2024 |
| spec | 25 | 520 | 14 | 1949 | 2024 |
| other | 2 | 40 | 2 | 1992 | 2024 |

### Construct-validity family means

Substantive party-family means provide a construct-validity check: families should follow the expected ordering on the economic left-right and cultural cosmopolitan--traditionalist dimensions.

| family_name | n_parties | n_obs | mean_economic | sd_economic | mean_cultural | sd_cultural |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Communist/Far Left | 49 | 1241 | 0.12 | 0.09 | 0.383 | 0.18 |
| Green/Ecological | 30 | 723 | 0.267 | 0.115 | 0.251 | 0.092 |
| Social Democratic | 86 | 2892 | 0.331 | 0.124 | 0.378 | 0.138 |
| Christian Democratic | 41 | 1596 | 0.596 | 0.119 | 0.529 | 0.14 |
| Radical Right | 50 | 975 | 0.622 | 0.19 | 0.72 | 0.151 |
| Conservative | 82 | 2425 | 0.652 | 0.178 | 0.538 | 0.143 |
| Liberal | 81 | 2063 | 0.657 | 0.152 | 0.371 | 0.132 |

### Temporal-stability flags

The model permits movement through random walks, but unusually large one-year changes are flagged for inspection rather than treated as automatic errors.

| party_id | country | dimension | year_from | year_to | val_from | val_to | annual_change |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 556 | LT | cultural cosmopolitan--traditionalist | 2019 | 2020 | 0.771 | 0.529 | 0.242 |
| 1663 | IL | cultural cosmopolitan--traditionalist | 2021 | 2022 | 0.142 | 0.356 | 0.214 |
| 455 | IL | cultural cosmopolitan--traditionalist | 1997 | 1998 | 0.457 | 0.643 | 0.186 |
| 455 | IL | cultural cosmopolitan--traditionalist | 1996 | 1997 | 0.277 | 0.457 | 0.18 |
| 8393 | LV | cultural cosmopolitan--traditionalist | 2018 | 2019 | 0.439 | 0.263 | 0.176 |
| 281 | BE | cultural cosmopolitan--traditionalist | 1977 | 1978 | 0.671 | 0.843 | 0.173 |
| 556 | LT | cultural cosmopolitan--traditionalist | 2001 | 2002 | 0.319 | 0.491 | 0.172 |
| 964 | IS | economic left-right | 2016 | 2017 | 0.691 | 0.521 | 0.17 |
| 298 | NL | cultural cosmopolitan--traditionalist | 2018 | 2019 | 0.761 | 0.593 | 0.168 |
| 901 | FI | economic left-right | 1992 | 1993 | 0.486 | 0.647 | 0.161 |
| 467 | SI | cultural cosmopolitan--traditionalist | 2018 | 2019 | 0.564 | 0.404 | 0.16 |
| 1221 | IT | economic left-right | 2007 | 2008 | 0.56 | 0.4 | 0.159 |
| 901 | FI | economic left-right | 1991 | 1992 | 0.327 | 0.486 | 0.159 |
| 455 | IL | cultural cosmopolitan--traditionalist | 1998 | 1999 | 0.643 | 0.797 | 0.154 |
| 1221 | IT | economic left-right | 2006 | 2007 | 0.709 | 0.56 | 0.149 |
| 2211 | UA | economic left-right | 2006 | 2007 | 0.417 | 0.562 | 0.145 |
| 631 | CH | economic left-right | 2018 | 2019 | 0.613 | 0.757 | 0.144 |
| 298 | NL | cultural cosmopolitan--traditionalist | 2019 | 2020 | 0.593 | 0.735 | 0.142 |
| 556 | LT | cultural cosmopolitan--traditionalist | 2000 | 2001 | 0.181 | 0.319 | 0.138 |
| 1417 | IL | cultural cosmopolitan--traditionalist | 1968 | 1969 | 0.498 | 0.635 | 0.137 |

## Model convergence diagnostics

Convergence is assessed using split R-hat and effective sample size over monitored parameters.

| metric | count | percentage |
| --- | --- | --- |
| R-hat < 1.01 | 35258 | 100 |
| R-hat 1.01-1.05 | 0 | 0 |
| R-hat > 1.05 | 0 | 0 |
| ESS > 1000 | 34853 | 98.85 |
| ESS 400-1000 | 405 | 1.15 |
| ESS < 400 | 0 | 0 |

### Convergence by parameter group

| dimension | parameters | mean_rhat | max_rhat | min_ess_bulk | mean_ess_bulk |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| cultural cosmopolitan--traditionalist | 17585 | 1.001 | 1.006 | 810.509 | 6889.246 |
| economic left-right | 17585 | 1 | 1.004 | 670.708 | 5573.456 |
| lr_country_offset | 65 | 1.001 | 1.004 | 1078.198 | 5434.868 |
| lr_decade_offset | 8 | 1 | 1.001 | 2069.676 | 3372.016 |
| lr_sigma | 3 | 1.001 | 1.002 | 1956.611 | 2582.401 |
| lr_source_offset | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3477.519 | 3814.374 |
| lr_weight | 3 | 1.002 | 1.002 | 1540.806 | 1560.217 |
| mean_sigma | 6 | 1.005 | 1.009 | 534.811 | 918.502 |

## Posterior uncertainty

The completed party-position output reports posterior standard errors and interval endpoints for both dimensions. These summaries describe the typical uncertainty in the release file used by the report.

| rows | parties | countries | min_year | max_year | mean_economic_se | median_economic_se | mean_cultural_se | median_cultural_se |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 17585 | 708 | 65 | 1944 | 2025 | 0.065 | 0.063 | 0.058 | 0.055 |

## Validation diagnostics

The validation diagnostics combine convergent and discriminant comparisons with expert surveys, posterior predictive coverage, construct checks, and out-of-sample validation when the corresponding outputs are available.

| diagnostic | dimension | n | pearson_r | spearman_r | mae | coverage |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| convergent validity | economic left-right | 4637 | 0.904 | 0.901 | 0.076 | NA |
| convergent validity | cultural cosmopolitan--traditionalist | 1425 | 0.96 | 0.967 | 0.079 | NA |
| posterior predictive coverage | economic left-right | 7455 | NA | NA | NA | 0.899 |
| posterior predictive coverage | cultural cosmopolitan--traditionalist | 15539 | NA | NA | NA | 0.848 |

### Discriminant validity

| model_dim | expert_dim | r_pearson | r_spearman | n | type | diagnostic |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| economic left-right | economic | 0.904 | 0.901 | 4637 | convergent | discriminant validity |
| cultural cosmopolitan--traditionalist | economic | 0.422 | 0.435 | 4637 | discriminant | discriminant validity |
| cultural cosmopolitan--traditionalist | cultural cosmopolitan--traditionalist | 0.96 | 0.967 | 1425 | convergent | discriminant validity |
| economic left-right | cultural cosmopolitan--traditionalist | 0.393 | 0.398 | 1425 | discriminant | discriminant validity |

### External validation correlations

| var | dimension | n | pearson_r | mean_absolute_error | coverage_95 |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| culsup_vparty | cultural cosmopolitan--traditionalist | 536 | 0.812 | 0.128 | 0.384 |
| galtan_ches | cultural cosmopolitan--traditionalist | 222 | 0.959 | 0.079 | 0.523 |
| gender_vparty | cultural cosmopolitan--traditionalist | 545 | 0.563 | 0.169 | 0.29 |
| immig_vparty | cultural cosmopolitan--traditionalist | 537 | 0.743 | 0.103 | 0.49 |
| lgbt_vparty | cultural cosmopolitan--traditionalist | 541 | 0.794 | 0.094 | 0.551 |
| relig_vparty | cultural cosmopolitan--traditionalist | 548 | 0.676 | 0.303 | 0.047 |
| lrecon_ches | economic left-right | 223 | 0.974 | 0.055 | 0.812 |
| lrecon_poppa | economic left-right | 74 | 0.98 | 0.066 | 0.662 |
| lrecon_vparty | economic left-right | 534 | 0.866 | 0.088 | 0.674 |
| welf_vparty | economic left-right | 534 | 0.682 | 0.176 | 0.363 |

## Generated tables

- `alliance_union_harmonization.csv`
- `construct_family_positions.csv`
- `construct_temporal_stability_flags.csv`
- `external_validation_correlations.csv`
- `item_coding_orientation.csv`
- `item_coverage.csv`
- `model_convergence_by_dimension.csv`
- `model_convergence_summary.csv`
- `party_family_coverage.csv`
- `party_year_source_coverage.csv`
- `posterior_uncertainty_summary.csv`
- `posterior_validation_convergent_summary.csv`
- `posterior_validation_discriminant_summary.csv`
- `posterior_validation_uncertainty_summary.csv`
- `reversed_items.csv`
- `source_coverage.csv`