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Clarify validation figure labels

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Armin
2026-08-13 21:00:17 +00:00
parent 57eed473c6
commit 9677612a19
8 changed files with 60 additions and 61 deletions
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validation/figures/party_landmarks.pdf
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validation/figures/party_trajectories.pdf
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validation/figures/predictive_coverage_by_item.pdf
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validation/figures/research_workflow.pdf
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validation/outputs/party_landmark_plot_data.csv
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"party_id","target_year","label","status","actual_year","party_name","country","economic_lr","economic_lower","economic_upper","galtan","galtan_lower","galtan_upper","source_support_class","era" "party_id","target_year","label","status","actual_year","party_name","country","economic_lr","economic_lower","economic_upper","galtan","galtan_lower","galtan_upper","source_support_class","era"
383,1972,"SPD 1972","exact",1972,"Social Democratic Party of Germany","DE",0.271573270375,0.162936225,0.38761415,0.370199619125,0.2680677,0.473299475,"both_direct_or_nearby","Historical & Cold War Era (1970–1999)" 383,1972,"German Social Democrats 1972","exact",1972,"Social Democratic Party of Germany","DE",0.271573270375,0.162936225,0.38761415,0.370199619125,0.2680677,0.473299475,"both_direct_or_nearby","Historical & Cold War Era (1970–1999)"
383,2021,"SPD 2021","exact",2021,"Social Democratic Party of Germany","DE",0.2363366825,0.148430575,0.330595375,0.36824540875,0.27656695,0.461600275,"both_direct_or_nearby","Contemporary Era (2000–2022)" 383,2021,"German Social Democrats 2021","exact",2021,"Social Democratic Party of Germany","DE",0.2363366825,0.148430575,0.330595375,0.36824540875,0.27656695,0.461600275,"both_direct_or_nearby","Contemporary Era (2000–2022)"
1375,1983,"CDU 1983","exact",1983,"Christian Democratic Union","DE",0.704186118875,0.559885375,0.832835125,0.6167079735,0.5088347,0.716463575,"text_only_direct_or_nearby","Historical & Cold War Era (1970–1999)" 1375,1983,"German Christian Democrats 1983","exact",1983,"Christian Democratic Union","DE",0.704186118875,0.559885375,0.832835125,0.6167079735,0.5088347,0.716463575,"text_only_direct_or_nearby","Historical & Cold War Era (1970–1999)"
1375,2021,"CDU 2021","exact",2021,"Christian Democratic Union","DE",0.57714137175,0.45681705,0.69505505,0.536185121875,0.433751725,0.636189175,"text_only_direct_or_nearby","Contemporary Era (2000–2022)" 1375,2021,"German Christian Democrats 2021","exact",2021,"Christian Democratic Union","DE",0.57714137175,0.45681705,0.69505505,0.536185121875,0.433751725,0.636189175,"text_only_direct_or_nearby","Contemporary Era (2000–2022)"
1516,1983,"Labour 1983","exact",1983,"Labour Party","GB",0.259080600525,0.1453436,0.3814767,0.34731692875,0.243851525,0.45443645,"both_direct_or_nearby","Historical & Cold War Era (1970–1999)" 1516,1983,"Labour 1983","exact",1983,"Labour Party","GB",0.259080600525,0.1453436,0.3814767,0.34731692875,0.243851525,0.45443645,"both_direct_or_nearby","Historical & Cold War Era (1970–1999)"
1516,1997,"Labour 1997","exact",1997,"Labour Party","GB",0.540093913375,0.45312245,0.63004375,0.50597976425,0.44681665,0.566031675,"both_direct_or_nearby","Historical & Cold War Era (1970–1999)" 1516,1997,"Labour 1997","exact",1997,"Labour Party","GB",0.540093913375,0.45312245,0.63004375,0.50597976425,0.44681665,0.566031675,"both_direct_or_nearby","Historical & Cold War Era (1970–1999)"
1567,1979,"Conservatives 1979","exact",1979,"Conservative Party","GB",0.863733304625,0.78370345,0.932120225,0.58421918175,0.47261405,0.691922375,"both_direct_or_nearby","Historical & Cold War Era (1970–1999)" 1567,1979,"Conservatives 1979","exact",1979,"Conservative Party","GB",0.863733304625,0.78370345,0.932120225,0.58421918175,0.47261405,0.691922375,"both_direct_or_nearby","Historical & Cold War Era (1970–1999)"
1567,2019,"Conservatives 2019","exact",2019,"Conservative Party","GB",0.734806347125,0.6674518,0.805338225,0.604817389125,0.5601045,0.6518521,"both_direct_or_nearby","Contemporary Era (2000–2022)" 1567,2019,"Conservatives 2019","exact",2019,"Conservative Party","GB",0.734806347125,0.6674518,0.805338225,0.604817389125,0.5601045,0.6518521,"both_direct_or_nearby","Contemporary Era (2000–2022)"
487,1994,"Swedish SAP 1994","exact",1994,"Social Democratic Labour Party","SE",0.58329747225,0.45880465,0.706358175,0.323307833,0.22678185,0.42106565,"both_direct_or_nearby","Historical & Cold War Era (1970–1999)" 487,1994,"Swedish Social Democrats 1994","exact",1994,"Social Democratic Labour Party","SE",0.58329747225,0.45880465,0.706358175,0.323307833,0.22678185,0.42106565,"both_direct_or_nearby","Historical & Cold War Era (1970–1999)"
487,2022,"Swedish SAP 2022","exact",2022,"Social Democratic Labour Party","SE",0.271161611625,0.18001335,0.364595125,0.431600183875,0.333020475,0.530597425,"both_direct_or_nearby","Contemporary Era (2000–2022)" 487,2022,"Swedish Social Democrats 2022","exact",2022,"Social Democratic Labour Party","SE",0.271161611625,0.18001335,0.364595125,0.431600183875,0.333020475,0.530597425,"both_direct_or_nearby","Contemporary Era (2000–2022)"
409,2010,"Sweden Democrats 2010","exact",2010,"Sweden Democrats","SE",0.57402493025,0.47088145,0.681297275,0.721373298875,0.653960175,0.78768305,"both_direct_or_nearby","Contemporary Era (2000–2022)" 409,2010,"Sweden Democrats 2010","exact",2010,"Sweden Democrats","SE",0.57402493025,0.47088145,0.681297275,0.721373298875,0.653960175,0.78768305,"both_direct_or_nearby","Contemporary Era (2000–2022)"
409,2022,"Sweden Democrats 2022","exact",2022,"Sweden Democrats","SE",0.609638368125,0.490017925,0.7238046,0.753425659,0.653108875,0.84672335,"both_direct_or_nearby","Contemporary Era (2000–2022)" 409,2022,"Sweden Democrats 2022","exact",2022,"Sweden Democrats","SE",0.609638368125,0.490017925,0.7238046,0.753425659,0.653108875,0.84672335,"both_direct_or_nearby","Contemporary Era (2000–2022)"
433,1988,"French FN 1988","exact",1988,"National Front","FR",0.78687783275,0.6924592,0.8758855,0.797982186375,0.7315981,0.86105335,"both_direct_or_nearby","Historical & Cold War Era (1970–1999)" 433,1988,"French National Front 1988","exact",1988,"National Front","FR",0.78687783275,0.6924592,0.8758855,0.797982186375,0.7315981,0.86105335,"both_direct_or_nearby","Historical & Cold War Era (1970–1999)"
433,2022,"French FN 2022","exact",2022,"National Front","FR",0.524320955125,0.398589175,0.645052275,0.829604491,0.73907015,0.911430725,"both_direct_or_nearby","Contemporary Era (2000–2022)" 433,2022,"French National Front 2022","exact",2022,"National Front","FR",0.524320955125,0.398589175,0.645052275,0.829604491,0.73907015,0.911430725,"both_direct_or_nearby","Contemporary Era (2000–2022)"
1545,2021,"The Left 2021","exact",2021,"The Left","DE",0.05463340125125,0.0205853625,0.104672875,0.2266517688,0.13204575,0.336095325,"both_direct_or_nearby","Contemporary Era (2000–2022)" 1545,2021,"The Left 2021","exact",2021,"The Left","DE",0.05463340125125,0.0205853625,0.104672875,0.2266517688,0.13204575,0.336095325,"both_direct_or_nearby","Contemporary Era (2000–2022)"
432,2020,"US Democrats 2020","exact",2020,"Democratic Party","US",0.299892256625,0.1963003,0.410606025,0.3345769065,0.263694925,0.405684575,"both_direct_or_nearby","Contemporary Era (2000–2022)" 432,2020,"US Democrats 2020","exact",2020,"Democratic Party","US",0.299892256625,0.1963003,0.410606025,0.3345769065,0.263694925,0.405684575,"both_direct_or_nearby","Contemporary Era (2000–2022)"
809,2020,"US Republicans 2020","exact",2020,"Republican Party","US",0.8507495345,0.77742365,0.917357075,0.721311676375,0.65728435,0.78442835,"both_direct_or_nearby","Contemporary Era (2000–2022)" 809,2020,"US Republicans 2020","exact",2020,"Republican Party","US",0.8507495345,0.77742365,0.917357075,0.721311676375,0.65728435,0.78442835,"both_direct_or_nearby","Contemporary Era (2000–2022)"
1 party_id target_year label status actual_year party_name country economic_lr economic_lower economic_upper galtan galtan_lower galtan_upper source_support_class era
2 383 1972 SPD 1972 German Social Democrats 1972 exact 1972 Social Democratic Party of Germany DE 0.271573270375 0.162936225 0.38761415 0.370199619125 0.2680677 0.473299475 both_direct_or_nearby Historical & Cold War Era (1970–1999)
3 383 2021 SPD 2021 German Social Democrats 2021 exact 2021 Social Democratic Party of Germany DE 0.2363366825 0.148430575 0.330595375 0.36824540875 0.27656695 0.461600275 both_direct_or_nearby Contemporary Era (2000–2022)
4 1375 1983 CDU 1983 German Christian Democrats 1983 exact 1983 Christian Democratic Union DE 0.704186118875 0.559885375 0.832835125 0.6167079735 0.5088347 0.716463575 text_only_direct_or_nearby Historical & Cold War Era (1970–1999)
5 1375 2021 CDU 2021 German Christian Democrats 2021 exact 2021 Christian Democratic Union DE 0.57714137175 0.45681705 0.69505505 0.536185121875 0.433751725 0.636189175 text_only_direct_or_nearby Contemporary Era (2000–2022)
6 1516 1983 Labour 1983 exact 1983 Labour Party GB 0.259080600525 0.1453436 0.3814767 0.34731692875 0.243851525 0.45443645 both_direct_or_nearby Historical & Cold War Era (1970–1999)
7 1516 1997 Labour 1997 exact 1997 Labour Party GB 0.540093913375 0.45312245 0.63004375 0.50597976425 0.44681665 0.566031675 both_direct_or_nearby Historical & Cold War Era (1970–1999)
8 1567 1979 Conservatives 1979 exact 1979 Conservative Party GB 0.863733304625 0.78370345 0.932120225 0.58421918175 0.47261405 0.691922375 both_direct_or_nearby Historical & Cold War Era (1970–1999)
9 1567 2019 Conservatives 2019 exact 2019 Conservative Party GB 0.734806347125 0.6674518 0.805338225 0.604817389125 0.5601045 0.6518521 both_direct_or_nearby Contemporary Era (2000–2022)
10 487 1994 Swedish SAP 1994 Swedish Social Democrats 1994 exact 1994 Social Democratic Labour Party SE 0.58329747225 0.45880465 0.706358175 0.323307833 0.22678185 0.42106565 both_direct_or_nearby Historical & Cold War Era (1970–1999)
11 487 2022 Swedish SAP 2022 Swedish Social Democrats 2022 exact 2022 Social Democratic Labour Party SE 0.271161611625 0.18001335 0.364595125 0.431600183875 0.333020475 0.530597425 both_direct_or_nearby Contemporary Era (2000–2022)
12 409 2010 Sweden Democrats 2010 exact 2010 Sweden Democrats SE 0.57402493025 0.47088145 0.681297275 0.721373298875 0.653960175 0.78768305 both_direct_or_nearby Contemporary Era (2000–2022)
13 409 2022 Sweden Democrats 2022 exact 2022 Sweden Democrats SE 0.609638368125 0.490017925 0.7238046 0.753425659 0.653108875 0.84672335 both_direct_or_nearby Contemporary Era (2000–2022)
14 433 1988 French FN 1988 French National Front 1988 exact 1988 National Front FR 0.78687783275 0.6924592 0.8758855 0.797982186375 0.7315981 0.86105335 both_direct_or_nearby Historical & Cold War Era (1970–1999)
15 433 2022 French FN 2022 French National Front 2022 exact 2022 National Front FR 0.524320955125 0.398589175 0.645052275 0.829604491 0.73907015 0.911430725 both_direct_or_nearby Contemporary Era (2000–2022)
16 1545 2021 The Left 2021 exact 2021 The Left DE 0.05463340125125 0.0205853625 0.104672875 0.2266517688 0.13204575 0.336095325 both_direct_or_nearby Contemporary Era (2000–2022)
17 432 2020 US Democrats 2020 exact 2020 Democratic Party US 0.299892256625 0.1963003 0.410606025 0.3345769065 0.263694925 0.405684575 both_direct_or_nearby Contemporary Era (2000–2022)
18 809 2020 US Republicans 2020 exact 2020 Republican Party US 0.8507495345 0.77742365 0.917357075 0.721311676375 0.65728435 0.78442835 both_direct_or_nearby Contemporary Era (2000–2022)
validation/outputs/party_trajectory_plot_data.csv
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@@ -20,27 +20,27 @@
1567,"United Kingdom: Conservatives","GB",2017,"both_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.680683625125,0.607886575,0.758350075 1567,"United Kingdom: Conservatives","GB",2017,"both_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.680683625125,0.607886575,0.758350075
1567,"United Kingdom: Conservatives","GB",2019,"both_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.734806347125,0.6674518,0.805338225 1567,"United Kingdom: Conservatives","GB",2019,"both_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.734806347125,0.6674518,0.805338225
1567,"United Kingdom: Conservatives","GB",2024,"both_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.696441988625,0.611536275,0.7845477 1567,"United Kingdom: Conservatives","GB",2024,"both_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.696441988625,0.611536275,0.7845477
383,"Germany: SPD","DE",1949,"text_only_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.2594422284125,0.124083075,0.416025325 383,"Germany: Social Democrats","DE",1949,"text_only_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.2594422284125,0.124083075,0.416025325
383,"Germany: SPD","DE",1953,"text_only_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.3044620151625,0.172417475,0.44553015 383,"Germany: Social Democrats","DE",1953,"text_only_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.3044620151625,0.172417475,0.44553015
383,"Germany: SPD","DE",1957,"text_only_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.364714905375,0.217271,0.518439625 383,"Germany: Social Democrats","DE",1957,"text_only_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.364714905375,0.217271,0.518439625
383,"Germany: SPD","DE",1961,"text_only_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.45071135275,0.3107251,0.58867 383,"Germany: Social Democrats","DE",1961,"text_only_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.45071135275,0.3107251,0.58867
383,"Germany: SPD","DE",1965,"text_only_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.40004889475,0.253314775,0.5547562 383,"Germany: Social Democrats","DE",1965,"text_only_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.40004889475,0.253314775,0.5547562
383,"Germany: SPD","DE",1969,"text_only_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.36430581075,0.234999825,0.496653 383,"Germany: Social Democrats","DE",1969,"text_only_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.36430581075,0.234999825,0.496653
383,"Germany: SPD","DE",1972,"both_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.271573270375,0.162936225,0.38761415 383,"Germany: Social Democrats","DE",1972,"both_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.271573270375,0.162936225,0.38761415
383,"Germany: SPD","DE",1976,"both_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.22760841445,0.1408578,0.317522325 383,"Germany: Social Democrats","DE",1976,"both_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.22760841445,0.1408578,0.317522325
383,"Germany: SPD","DE",1980,"both_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.2854944402625,0.176353725,0.402044875 383,"Germany: Social Democrats","DE",1980,"both_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.2854944402625,0.176353725,0.402044875
383,"Germany: SPD","DE",1983,"both_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.3201057485,0.198932275,0.449359525 383,"Germany: Social Democrats","DE",1983,"both_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.3201057485,0.198932275,0.449359525
383,"Germany: SPD","DE",1987,"both_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.3082503073875,0.1890146,0.43586885 383,"Germany: Social Democrats","DE",1987,"both_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.3082503073875,0.1890146,0.43586885
383,"Germany: SPD","DE",1990,"both_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.2997481731625,0.1826493,0.42186305 383,"Germany: Social Democrats","DE",1990,"both_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.2997481731625,0.1826493,0.42186305
383,"Germany: SPD","DE",1994,"both_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.344258320125,0.247450525,0.440361825 383,"Germany: Social Democrats","DE",1994,"both_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.344258320125,0.247450525,0.440361825
383,"Germany: SPD","DE",1998,"both_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.42037938775,0.335025575,0.504438225 383,"Germany: Social Democrats","DE",1998,"both_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.42037938775,0.335025575,0.504438225
383,"Germany: SPD","DE",2002,"both_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.354348980875,0.285402475,0.419218875 383,"Germany: Social Democrats","DE",2002,"both_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.354348980875,0.285402475,0.419218875
383,"Germany: SPD","DE",2005,"both_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.408510935875,0.326714325,0.4912897 383,"Germany: Social Democrats","DE",2005,"both_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.408510935875,0.326714325,0.4912897
383,"Germany: SPD","DE",2009,"both_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.2258038923125,0.154613,0.2986832 383,"Germany: Social Democrats","DE",2009,"both_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.2258038923125,0.154613,0.2986832
383,"Germany: SPD","DE",2013,"both_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.2547526295,0.177729475,0.3305311 383,"Germany: Social Democrats","DE",2013,"both_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.2547526295,0.177729475,0.3305311
383,"Germany: SPD","DE",2017,"both_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.2187940564125,0.150431,0.288139 383,"Germany: Social Democrats","DE",2017,"both_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.2187940564125,0.150431,0.288139
383,"Germany: SPD","DE",2021,"both_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.2363366825,0.148430575,0.330595375 383,"Germany: Social Democrats","DE",2021,"both_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.2363366825,0.148430575,0.330595375
383,"Germany: SPD","DE",2025,"both_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.24988987125,0.155485225,0.353246025 383,"Germany: Social Democrats","DE",2025,"both_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.24988987125,0.155485225,0.353246025
379,"Denmark: Social Democrats","DK",1945,"text_only_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.39289630125,0.306313775,0.4744366 379,"Denmark: Social Democrats","DK",1945,"text_only_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.39289630125,0.306313775,0.4744366
379,"Denmark: Social Democrats","DK",1947,"text_only_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.4133295765,0.326647125,0.497578325 379,"Denmark: Social Democrats","DK",1947,"text_only_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.4133295765,0.326647125,0.497578325
379,"Denmark: Social Democrats","DK",1950,"text_only_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.402314539625,0.313989,0.48990055 379,"Denmark: Social Democrats","DK",1950,"text_only_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.402314539625,0.313989,0.48990055
@@ -93,27 +93,27 @@
1567,"United Kingdom: Conservatives","GB",2017,"both_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.550617655875,0.503622825,0.597269 1567,"United Kingdom: Conservatives","GB",2017,"both_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.550617655875,0.503622825,0.597269
1567,"United Kingdom: Conservatives","GB",2019,"both_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.604817389125,0.5601045,0.6518521 1567,"United Kingdom: Conservatives","GB",2019,"both_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.604817389125,0.5601045,0.6518521
1567,"United Kingdom: Conservatives","GB",2024,"both_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.64147235475,0.568830525,0.717038025 1567,"United Kingdom: Conservatives","GB",2024,"both_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.64147235475,0.568830525,0.717038025
383,"Germany: SPD","DE",1949,"text_only_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.4562653665,0.29105445,0.6148909 383,"Germany: Social Democrats","DE",1949,"text_only_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.4562653665,0.29105445,0.6148909
383,"Germany: SPD","DE",1953,"text_only_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.41201424225,0.239960775,0.59720855 383,"Germany: Social Democrats","DE",1953,"text_only_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.41201424225,0.239960775,0.59720855
383,"Germany: SPD","DE",1957,"text_only_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.361933815225,0.2020638,0.530546125 383,"Germany: Social Democrats","DE",1957,"text_only_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.361933815225,0.2020638,0.530546125
383,"Germany: SPD","DE",1961,"text_only_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.3403875836625,0.189634975,0.502483725 383,"Germany: Social Democrats","DE",1961,"text_only_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.3403875836625,0.189634975,0.502483725
383,"Germany: SPD","DE",1965,"text_only_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.349500525125,0.197610625,0.519782425 383,"Germany: Social Democrats","DE",1965,"text_only_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.349500525125,0.197610625,0.519782425
383,"Germany: SPD","DE",1969,"text_only_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.367453271375,0.2312429,0.51644905 383,"Germany: Social Democrats","DE",1969,"text_only_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.367453271375,0.2312429,0.51644905
383,"Germany: SPD","DE",1972,"both_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.370199619125,0.2680677,0.473299475 383,"Germany: Social Democrats","DE",1972,"both_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.370199619125,0.2680677,0.473299475
383,"Germany: SPD","DE",1976,"both_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.28787436475,0.21332925,0.364130925 383,"Germany: Social Democrats","DE",1976,"both_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.28787436475,0.21332925,0.364130925
383,"Germany: SPD","DE",1980,"both_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.346500680875,0.245533525,0.448428875 383,"Germany: Social Democrats","DE",1980,"both_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.346500680875,0.245533525,0.448428875
383,"Germany: SPD","DE",1983,"both_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.3643932085,0.2585273,0.474535775 383,"Germany: Social Democrats","DE",1983,"both_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.3643932085,0.2585273,0.474535775
383,"Germany: SPD","DE",1987,"both_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.373242374375,0.266124675,0.479610175 383,"Germany: Social Democrats","DE",1987,"both_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.373242374375,0.266124675,0.479610175
383,"Germany: SPD","DE",1990,"both_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.354967389625,0.25200245,0.460687325 383,"Germany: Social Democrats","DE",1990,"both_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.354967389625,0.25200245,0.460687325
383,"Germany: SPD","DE",1994,"both_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.410000861625,0.3313879,0.488224525 383,"Germany: Social Democrats","DE",1994,"both_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.410000861625,0.3313879,0.488224525
383,"Germany: SPD","DE",1998,"both_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.458140040875,0.389836225,0.525399375 383,"Germany: Social Democrats","DE",1998,"both_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.458140040875,0.389836225,0.525399375
383,"Germany: SPD","DE",2002,"both_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.442940016,0.3876151,0.4964075 383,"Germany: Social Democrats","DE",2002,"both_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.442940016,0.3876151,0.4964075
383,"Germany: SPD","DE",2005,"both_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.456470195875,0.39176415,0.5189629 383,"Germany: Social Democrats","DE",2005,"both_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.456470195875,0.39176415,0.5189629
383,"Germany: SPD","DE",2009,"both_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.389663805625,0.32557465,0.451253625 383,"Germany: Social Democrats","DE",2009,"both_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.389663805625,0.32557465,0.451253625
383,"Germany: SPD","DE",2013,"both_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.2109102855,0.15503785,0.268407625 383,"Germany: Social Democrats","DE",2013,"both_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.2109102855,0.15503785,0.268407625
383,"Germany: SPD","DE",2017,"both_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.40809383225,0.35346185,0.45866175 383,"Germany: Social Democrats","DE",2017,"both_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.40809383225,0.35346185,0.45866175
383,"Germany: SPD","DE",2021,"both_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.36824540875,0.27656695,0.461600275 383,"Germany: Social Democrats","DE",2021,"both_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.36824540875,0.27656695,0.461600275
383,"Germany: SPD","DE",2025,"both_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.3699090585,0.27155195,0.46999925 383,"Germany: Social Democrats","DE",2025,"both_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.3699090585,0.27155195,0.46999925
379,"Denmark: Social Democrats","DK",1945,"text_only_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.367253073125,0.222935775,0.513292475 379,"Denmark: Social Democrats","DK",1945,"text_only_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.367253073125,0.222935775,0.513292475
379,"Denmark: Social Democrats","DK",1947,"text_only_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.38745918675,0.234832075,0.545806525 379,"Denmark: Social Democrats","DK",1947,"text_only_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.38745918675,0.234832075,0.545806525
379,"Denmark: Social Democrats","DK",1950,"text_only_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.3968814625,0.2531828,0.544707225 379,"Denmark: Social Democrats","DK",1950,"text_only_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.3968814625,0.2531828,0.544707225
1 party_id party_label country year source_support_class dimension estimate lower upper
20 1567 United Kingdom: Conservatives GB 2017 both_direct_or_nearby Economic 0.680683625125 0.607886575 0.758350075
21 1567 United Kingdom: Conservatives GB 2019 both_direct_or_nearby Economic 0.734806347125 0.6674518 0.805338225
22 1567 United Kingdom: Conservatives GB 2024 both_direct_or_nearby Economic 0.696441988625 0.611536275 0.7845477
23 383 Germany: SPD Germany: Social Democrats DE 1949 text_only_direct_or_nearby Economic 0.2594422284125 0.124083075 0.416025325
24 383 Germany: SPD Germany: Social Democrats DE 1953 text_only_direct_or_nearby Economic 0.3044620151625 0.172417475 0.44553015
25 383 Germany: SPD Germany: Social Democrats DE 1957 text_only_direct_or_nearby Economic 0.364714905375 0.217271 0.518439625
26 383 Germany: SPD Germany: Social Democrats DE 1961 text_only_direct_or_nearby Economic 0.45071135275 0.3107251 0.58867
27 383 Germany: SPD Germany: Social Democrats DE 1965 text_only_direct_or_nearby Economic 0.40004889475 0.253314775 0.5547562
28 383 Germany: SPD Germany: Social Democrats DE 1969 text_only_direct_or_nearby Economic 0.36430581075 0.234999825 0.496653
29 383 Germany: SPD Germany: Social Democrats DE 1972 both_direct_or_nearby Economic 0.271573270375 0.162936225 0.38761415
30 383 Germany: SPD Germany: Social Democrats DE 1976 both_direct_or_nearby Economic 0.22760841445 0.1408578 0.317522325
31 383 Germany: SPD Germany: Social Democrats DE 1980 both_direct_or_nearby Economic 0.2854944402625 0.176353725 0.402044875
32 383 Germany: SPD Germany: Social Democrats DE 1983 both_direct_or_nearby Economic 0.3201057485 0.198932275 0.449359525
33 383 Germany: SPD Germany: Social Democrats DE 1987 both_direct_or_nearby Economic 0.3082503073875 0.1890146 0.43586885
34 383 Germany: SPD Germany: Social Democrats DE 1990 both_direct_or_nearby Economic 0.2997481731625 0.1826493 0.42186305
35 383 Germany: SPD Germany: Social Democrats DE 1994 both_direct_or_nearby Economic 0.344258320125 0.247450525 0.440361825
36 383 Germany: SPD Germany: Social Democrats DE 1998 both_direct_or_nearby Economic 0.42037938775 0.335025575 0.504438225
37 383 Germany: SPD Germany: Social Democrats DE 2002 both_direct_or_nearby Economic 0.354348980875 0.285402475 0.419218875
38 383 Germany: SPD Germany: Social Democrats DE 2005 both_direct_or_nearby Economic 0.408510935875 0.326714325 0.4912897
39 383 Germany: SPD Germany: Social Democrats DE 2009 both_direct_or_nearby Economic 0.2258038923125 0.154613 0.2986832
40 383 Germany: SPD Germany: Social Democrats DE 2013 both_direct_or_nearby Economic 0.2547526295 0.177729475 0.3305311
41 383 Germany: SPD Germany: Social Democrats DE 2017 both_direct_or_nearby Economic 0.2187940564125 0.150431 0.288139
42 383 Germany: SPD Germany: Social Democrats DE 2021 both_direct_or_nearby Economic 0.2363366825 0.148430575 0.330595375
43 383 Germany: SPD Germany: Social Democrats DE 2025 both_direct_or_nearby Economic 0.24988987125 0.155485225 0.353246025
44 379 Denmark: Social Democrats DK 1945 text_only_direct_or_nearby Economic 0.39289630125 0.306313775 0.4744366
45 379 Denmark: Social Democrats DK 1947 text_only_direct_or_nearby Economic 0.4133295765 0.326647125 0.497578325
46 379 Denmark: Social Democrats DK 1950 text_only_direct_or_nearby Economic 0.402314539625 0.313989 0.48990055
93 1567 United Kingdom: Conservatives GB 2017 both_direct_or_nearby Cultural 0.550617655875 0.503622825 0.597269
94 1567 United Kingdom: Conservatives GB 2019 both_direct_or_nearby Cultural 0.604817389125 0.5601045 0.6518521
95 1567 United Kingdom: Conservatives GB 2024 both_direct_or_nearby Cultural 0.64147235475 0.568830525 0.717038025
96 383 Germany: SPD Germany: Social Democrats DE 1949 text_only_direct_or_nearby Cultural 0.4562653665 0.29105445 0.6148909
97 383 Germany: SPD Germany: Social Democrats DE 1953 text_only_direct_or_nearby Cultural 0.41201424225 0.239960775 0.59720855
98 383 Germany: SPD Germany: Social Democrats DE 1957 text_only_direct_or_nearby Cultural 0.361933815225 0.2020638 0.530546125
99 383 Germany: SPD Germany: Social Democrats DE 1961 text_only_direct_or_nearby Cultural 0.3403875836625 0.189634975 0.502483725
100 383 Germany: SPD Germany: Social Democrats DE 1965 text_only_direct_or_nearby Cultural 0.349500525125 0.197610625 0.519782425
101 383 Germany: SPD Germany: Social Democrats DE 1969 text_only_direct_or_nearby Cultural 0.367453271375 0.2312429 0.51644905
102 383 Germany: SPD Germany: Social Democrats DE 1972 both_direct_or_nearby Cultural 0.370199619125 0.2680677 0.473299475
103 383 Germany: SPD Germany: Social Democrats DE 1976 both_direct_or_nearby Cultural 0.28787436475 0.21332925 0.364130925
104 383 Germany: SPD Germany: Social Democrats DE 1980 both_direct_or_nearby Cultural 0.346500680875 0.245533525 0.448428875
105 383 Germany: SPD Germany: Social Democrats DE 1983 both_direct_or_nearby Cultural 0.3643932085 0.2585273 0.474535775
106 383 Germany: SPD Germany: Social Democrats DE 1987 both_direct_or_nearby Cultural 0.373242374375 0.266124675 0.479610175
107 383 Germany: SPD Germany: Social Democrats DE 1990 both_direct_or_nearby Cultural 0.354967389625 0.25200245 0.460687325
108 383 Germany: SPD Germany: Social Democrats DE 1994 both_direct_or_nearby Cultural 0.410000861625 0.3313879 0.488224525
109 383 Germany: SPD Germany: Social Democrats DE 1998 both_direct_or_nearby Cultural 0.458140040875 0.389836225 0.525399375
110 383 Germany: SPD Germany: Social Democrats DE 2002 both_direct_or_nearby Cultural 0.442940016 0.3876151 0.4964075
111 383 Germany: SPD Germany: Social Democrats DE 2005 both_direct_or_nearby Cultural 0.456470195875 0.39176415 0.5189629
112 383 Germany: SPD Germany: Social Democrats DE 2009 both_direct_or_nearby Cultural 0.389663805625 0.32557465 0.451253625
113 383 Germany: SPD Germany: Social Democrats DE 2013 both_direct_or_nearby Cultural 0.2109102855 0.15503785 0.268407625
114 383 Germany: SPD Germany: Social Democrats DE 2017 both_direct_or_nearby Cultural 0.40809383225 0.35346185 0.45866175
115 383 Germany: SPD Germany: Social Democrats DE 2021 both_direct_or_nearby Cultural 0.36824540875 0.27656695 0.461600275
116 383 Germany: SPD Germany: Social Democrats DE 2025 both_direct_or_nearby Cultural 0.3699090585 0.27155195 0.46999925
117 379 Denmark: Social Democrats DK 1945 text_only_direct_or_nearby Cultural 0.367253073125 0.222935775 0.513292475
118 379 Denmark: Social Democrats DK 1947 text_only_direct_or_nearby Cultural 0.38745918675 0.234832075 0.545806525
119 379 Denmark: Social Democrats DK 1950 text_only_direct_or_nearby Cultural 0.3968814625 0.2531828 0.544707225
validation/plot_workflow.R
+3 -4
View File
@@ -58,7 +58,7 @@ grid.newpage()
# =========================================================================== # ===========================================================================
draw_section(.5, .865, .94, .21, "1. Data Acquisition") draw_section(.5, .865, .94, .21, "1. Data Acquisition")
draw_box(.27, .84, .42, .12, "Text Data Projects", c("• Manifesto platforms", "• Campaign media text")) draw_box(.27, .84, .42, .12, "Text Data Projects", c("• Manifesto platforms", "• Campaign media text"))
draw_box(.73, .84, .42, .12, "Expert Survey Projects", c("• CHES, V-Party, POPPA & GPS", "• Morgan historical survey")) draw_box(.73, .84, .42, .12, "Expert Survey Projects", c("• Contemporary expert surveys", "• Historical expert survey"))
arrow(.5, .76, .5, .72) arrow(.5, .76, .5, .72)
@@ -86,11 +86,10 @@ arrow(.5, .29, .5, .25)
# Area 4: Data Extraction & Validation # Area 4: Data Extraction & Validation
# =========================================================================== # ===========================================================================
draw_section(.5, .135, .94, .20, "4. Data Extraction & Validation") draw_section(.5, .135, .94, .20, "4. Data Extraction & Validation")
draw_box(.20, .11, .30, .12, "Primary Panel Release", c("• 1944–2025 election panel", "• Posterior means & CIs")) draw_box(.20, .11, .30, .12, "Primary Panel Release", c("• 1944–2025 election panel", "• Posterior means & credible intervals"))
draw_box(.50, .11, .26, .12, "Secondary Output", c("• Annual trajectories", "• Composition metadata")) draw_box(.50, .11, .26, .12, "Secondary Output", c("• Annual trajectories", "• Composition metadata"))
draw_box(.80, .11, .28, .12, "Validation & Diagnostics", c("• Blocked holdout & PPC", "• Ablation & sensitivity")) draw_box(.80, .11, .28, .12, "Validation & Diagnostics", c("• Blocked holdout & predictive coverage", "• Ablation & sensitivity"))
dev.off() dev.off()
message("Wrote validation/figures/research_workflow.pdf") message("Wrote validation/figures/research_workflow.pdf")
validation/run_postprocessing.R
+7 -7
View File
@@ -296,7 +296,7 @@ ggsave(file.path(figure_dir, "vparty_sensitivity_countries.pdf"), p_vparty,
trajectory_ids <- c(383, 1567, 379, 409) trajectory_ids <- c(383, 1567, 379, 409)
traj <- panel[panel$party_id %in% trajectory_ids, ] traj <- panel[panel$party_id %in% trajectory_ids, ]
traj$party_label <- factor(traj$party_id, levels = trajectory_ids, traj$party_label <- factor(traj$party_id, levels = trajectory_ids,
labels = c("Germany: SPD", "United Kingdom: Conservatives", "Denmark: Social Democrats", "Sweden: Sweden Democrats")) labels = c("Germany: Social Democrats", "United Kingdom: Conservatives", "Denmark: Social Democrats", "Sweden: Sweden Democrats"))
traj_long <- rbind( traj_long <- rbind(
data.frame(traj[c("party_id","party_label","country","year","source_support_class")], data.frame(traj[c("party_id","party_label","country","year","source_support_class")],
dimension="Economic", estimate=traj$economic_lr, dimension="Economic", estimate=traj$economic_lr,
@@ -321,9 +321,9 @@ ggsave(file.path(figure_dir, "party_trajectories.pdf"), p_traj,
landmark_spec <- data.frame( landmark_spec <- data.frame(
party_id = c(383,383,1375,1375,1516,1516,1567,1567,487,487,409,409,433,433,1545,432,809), party_id = c(383,383,1375,1375,1516,1516,1567,1567,487,487,409,409,433,433,1545,432,809),
target_year = c(1972,2021,1983,2021,1983,1997,1979,2019,1994,2022,2010,2022,1988,2022,2021,2020,2020), target_year = c(1972,2021,1983,2021,1983,1997,1979,2019,1994,2022,2010,2022,1988,2022,2021,2020,2020),
label = c("SPD 1972","SPD 2021","CDU 1983","CDU 2021","Labour 1983","Labour 1997", label = c("German Social Democrats 1972","German Social Democrats 2021","German Christian Democrats 1983","German Christian Democrats 2021","Labour 1983","Labour 1997",
"Conservatives 1979","Conservatives 2019","Swedish SAP 1994","Swedish SAP 2022", "Conservatives 1979","Conservatives 2019","Swedish Social Democrats 1994","Swedish Social Democrats 2022",
"Sweden Democrats 2010","Sweden Democrats 2022","French FN 1988","French FN 2022", "Sweden Democrats 2010","Sweden Democrats 2022","French National Front 1988","French National Front 2022",
"The Left 2021","US Democrats 2020","US Republicans 2020") "The Left 2021","US Democrats 2020","US Republicans 2020")
) )
@@ -386,9 +386,9 @@ if (file.exists(ppc_item_file) && file.exists(ppc_calibration_file)) {
ppc_items <- read.csv(ppc_item_file, check.names = FALSE) ppc_items <- read.csv(ppc_item_file, check.names = FALSE)
ppc_items$dimension <- ifelse(ppc_items$dim_idx == 1, "Economic", "Cultural") ppc_items$dimension <- ifelse(ppc_items$dim_idx == 1, "Economic", "Cultural")
ppc_items$item_label <- c( ppc_items$item_label <- c(
gender_vparty="V-Party gender", relig_vparty="V-Party religion", gender_vparty="V-Party gender-policy item", relig_vparty="V-Party religion-policy item",
welf_vparty="V-Party welfare", culsup_vparty="V-Party cultural superiority", welf_vparty="V-Party welfare-position item", culsup_vparty="V-Party cultural-superiority item",
immig_vparty="V-Party immigration", lgbt_vparty="V-Party LGBT", immig_vparty="V-Party immigration-policy item", lgbt_vparty="V-Party LGBT-policy item",
lrecon_vparty="V-Party economic LR", galtan_ches="CHES GAL--TAN", lrecon_vparty="V-Party economic LR", galtan_ches="CHES GAL--TAN",
lrecon_ches="CHES economic LR", libcon_gps="GPS cultural", lrecon_ches="CHES economic LR", libcon_gps="GPS cultural",
lrecon_gps="GPS economic LR", lrecon_poppa="POPPA economic LR" lrecon_gps="GPS economic LR", lrecon_poppa="POPPA economic LR"