Publish party-position estimates and validation materials

2026-08-13 15:26:21 +00:00
commit 7666224565
119 changed files with 87813 additions and 0 deletions
@@ -0,0 +1,76 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env bash
+set -euo pipefail
+
+repo_root="$(cd "$(dirname "${BASH_SOURCE[0]}")/.." && pwd -P)"
+cd "$repo_root"
+
+if [[ "${PARTY2D_APPROVE_MODEL_FIT:-}" != "YES" ]]; then
+  echo "Refusing to start a Stan fit without explicit approval." >&2
+  echo "After approval, rerun with PARTY2D_APPROVE_MODEL_FIT=YES." >&2
+  exit 64
+fi
+
+run_dir="${1:-$repo_root/_local/validation/blocked_party}"
+mkdir -p "$run_dir" "$repo_root/_local/tmp/blocked_validation"
+
+if pgrep -af 'stan_model_2dim_v6.*sample|src/julia/01_run_model.jl' | grep -v "$$" >/dev/null; then
+  echo "Refusing to start: another party2d model process appears to be running." >&2
+  pgrep -af 'stan_model_2dim_v6.*sample|src/julia/01_run_model.jl' >&2 || true
+  exit 1
+fi
+
+if [[ -f "$run_dir/model_fit.complete" ]]; then
+  echo "Blocked validation already marked complete: $run_dir/model_fit.complete" >&2
+  exit 1
+fi
+
+required_kb=$((80 * 1024 * 1024))
+available_kb="$(df -Pk "$run_dir" | awk 'NR==2 {print $4}')"
+if (( available_kb < required_kb )); then
+  echo "Refusing to start: less than 80 GiB free on the run volume." >&2
+  exit 1
+fi
+
+julia --project=. validation/prepare_blocked_validation.jl "$run_dir"
+sha256sum "$run_dir"/text_data.csv "$run_dir"/expert.csv "$run_dir"/lr_data.csv \
+  "$run_dir"/expert_test.csv "$run_dir"/lr_data_test.csv \
+  > "$run_dir/input_sha256sums.txt"
+
+export CMDSTAN_HOME="${CMDSTAN_HOME:-/opt/agent-tools/cmdstan-2.39.0}"
+export TMPDIR="$repo_root/_local/tmp/blocked_validation"
+export JULIA_NUM_THREADS="${JULIA_NUM_THREADS:-4}"
+export STAN_NUM_THREADS=1
+export STAN_REFRESH="${STAN_REFRESH:-50}"
+export PARTY2D_NUM_CHAINS="${PARTY2D_NUM_CHAINS:-4}"
+export PARTY2D_NUM_WARMUP="${PARTY2D_NUM_WARMUP:-1000}"
+export PARTY2D_NUM_SAMPLES="${PARTY2D_NUM_SAMPLES:-1000}"
+
+if [[ ! -x "$CMDSTAN_HOME/bin/stanc" ]]; then
+  echo "Refusing to start: no executable stanc compiler at $CMDSTAN_HOME/bin/stanc" >&2
+  exit 1
+fi
+"$CMDSTAN_HOME/bin/stanc" --version > "$run_dir/stanc_version.txt"
+
+date --iso-8601=seconds > "$run_dir/model_fit.started"
+echo "$$" > "$run_dir/model_fit.pid"
+echo "CMDSTAN_HOME=$CMDSTAN_HOME" > "$run_dir/model_fit.environment"
+echo "JULIA_NUM_THREADS=$JULIA_NUM_THREADS" >> "$run_dir/model_fit.environment"
+echo "STAN_NUM_THREADS=$STAN_NUM_THREADS" >> "$run_dir/model_fit.environment"
+echo "PARTY2D_NUM_CHAINS=$PARTY2D_NUM_CHAINS" >> "$run_dir/model_fit.environment"
+echo "PARTY2D_NUM_WARMUP=$PARTY2D_NUM_WARMUP" >> "$run_dir/model_fit.environment"
+echo "PARTY2D_NUM_SAMPLES=$PARTY2D_NUM_SAMPLES" >> "$run_dir/model_fit.environment"
+
+set +e
+nice -n 10 julia --project=. src/julia/01_run_model.jl --data-dir "$run_dir" \
+  2>&1 | tee "$run_dir/model_fit.log"
+status="${PIPESTATUS[0]}"
+set -e
+
+echo "$status" > "$run_dir/model_fit.exit_code"
+if [[ "$status" -eq 0 ]]; then
+  rm -f "$run_dir/model_fit.failed"
+  date --iso-8601=seconds > "$run_dir/model_fit.complete"
+else
+  date --iso-8601=seconds > "$run_dir/model_fit.failed"
+fi
+exit "$status"