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Publish party-position estimates and validation materials

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Armin Seimel
2026-08-13 15:26:21 +00:00
commit 7666224565
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validation/outputs/ppc/posterior_predictive_residual_patterns.csv
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"dim_idx","group_type","group","n","covered","observed_coverage","mean_interval_width","mean_fitted_value","mean_expert_count"
1,"fitted_bin","<0.10",186,173,0.93010752688172,0.201343935349587,0.0742982979906544,6.90860215053763
2,"fitted_bin","<0.10",1136,1057,0.930457746478873,0.199591148849266,0.0563123796238274,4.14700704225352
1,"fitted_bin","0.10--0.25",1048,951,0.907442748091603,0.314041549598746,0.184525433560757,5.61927480916031
2,"fitted_bin","0.10--0.25",2188,1825,0.834095063985375,0.317890840699561,0.178618057950006,5.16499085923218
1,"fitted_bin","0.25--0.50",3246,2901,0.893715341959335,0.386906127490127,0.378663668829021,6.03789279112754
2,"fitted_bin","0.25--0.50",5968,5095,0.853719839142091,0.398286462549822,0.386935866391175,5.08176943699732
1,"fitted_bin","0.50--0.75",2556,2275,0.890062597809077,0.375315993025779,0.611178265471442,6.72339593114241
2,"fitted_bin","0.50--0.75",5355,4448,0.83062558356676,0.392888401688966,0.602719664402968,5.07581699346405
1,"fitted_bin","0.75--0.90",412,393,0.953883495145631,0.285225609283457,0.795682066295318,8.87621359223301
2,"fitted_bin","0.75--0.90",782,647,0.827365728900256,0.325761069731583,0.802604598684315,6.67519181585678
1,"fitted_bin",">=0.90",7,5,0.714285714285714,0.16328375744906,0.916229942632867,10.1428571428571
2,"fitted_bin",">=0.90",110,98,0.890909090909091,0.152884501861608,0.932790231810077,13.6545454545455
1,"expert_count_bin","1",426,349,0.81924882629108,0.65481986066405,0.448917410089667,1
2,"expert_count_bin","1",771,720,0.933852140077821,0.639913191413526,0.504472582940748,1
1,"expert_count_bin","2--3",1983,1740,0.877458396369138,0.444902409806459,0.421601867407412,2.65708522440746
2,"expert_count_bin","2--3",4733,4075,0.860976125079231,0.435003218496791,0.406494180618051,2.56665962391718
1,"expert_count_bin","4--5",2194,1936,0.882406563354603,0.354391432832638,0.434501893246095,4.43208751139471
2,"expert_count_bin","4--5",5503,4597,0.835362529529348,0.344489930932836,0.411151430784599,4.34017808468108
1,"expert_count_bin","6--10",1564,1436,0.918158567774936,0.30087431789946,0.455534718410825,7.46227621483376
2,"expert_count_bin","6--10",3122,2531,0.810698270339526,0.291057091853021,0.468603655803318,7.02274183215887
1,"expert_count_bin",">10",1288,1237,0.960403726708075,0.226032177926726,0.496678494666528,15.9906832298137
2,"expert_count_bin",">10",1410,1247,0.884397163120567,0.225590440713733,0.484677797077863,15.258865248227
1,"interval_width_quartile","Q1",2082,1964,0.943323727185399,0.234836823506568,0.427252900199234,12.5168107588857
2,"interval_width_quartile","Q1",3667,3137,0.855467684755931,0.224611599610499,0.336836104500498,9.18571038996455
1,"interval_width_quartile","Q2",1752,1598,0.912100456621005,0.32623893175719,0.439056079092374,5.82020547945205
2,"interval_width_quartile","Q2",3996,3316,0.82982982982983,0.325761369694064,0.451615985560038,5.59934934934935
1,"interval_width_quartile","Q3",1868,1641,0.87847965738758,0.387666656091502,0.460880414112048,4.06477516059957
2,"interval_width_quartile","Q3",3880,3252,0.838144329896907,0.389151519326864,0.455512300134519,3.92216494845361
1,"interval_width_quartile","Q4",1753,1495,0.85282373074729,0.522398307318929,0.463810195053108,2.18824871648602
2,"interval_width_quartile","Q4",3996,3465,0.867117117117117,0.510368641582237,0.479130318116811,2.24374374374374
1 dim_idx group_type group n covered observed_coverage mean_interval_width mean_fitted_value mean_expert_count
2 1 fitted_bin <0.10 186 173 0.93010752688172 0.201343935349587 0.0742982979906544 6.90860215053763
3 2 fitted_bin <0.10 1136 1057 0.930457746478873 0.199591148849266 0.0563123796238274 4.14700704225352
4 1 fitted_bin 0.10--0.25 1048 951 0.907442748091603 0.314041549598746 0.184525433560757 5.61927480916031
5 2 fitted_bin 0.10--0.25 2188 1825 0.834095063985375 0.317890840699561 0.178618057950006 5.16499085923218
6 1 fitted_bin 0.25--0.50 3246 2901 0.893715341959335 0.386906127490127 0.378663668829021 6.03789279112754
7 2 fitted_bin 0.25--0.50 5968 5095 0.853719839142091 0.398286462549822 0.386935866391175 5.08176943699732
8 1 fitted_bin 0.50--0.75 2556 2275 0.890062597809077 0.375315993025779 0.611178265471442 6.72339593114241
9 2 fitted_bin 0.50--0.75 5355 4448 0.83062558356676 0.392888401688966 0.602719664402968 5.07581699346405
10 1 fitted_bin 0.75--0.90 412 393 0.953883495145631 0.285225609283457 0.795682066295318 8.87621359223301
11 2 fitted_bin 0.75--0.90 782 647 0.827365728900256 0.325761069731583 0.802604598684315 6.67519181585678
12 1 fitted_bin >=0.90 7 5 0.714285714285714 0.16328375744906 0.916229942632867 10.1428571428571
13 2 fitted_bin >=0.90 110 98 0.890909090909091 0.152884501861608 0.932790231810077 13.6545454545455
14 1 expert_count_bin 1 426 349 0.81924882629108 0.65481986066405 0.448917410089667 1
15 2 expert_count_bin 1 771 720 0.933852140077821 0.639913191413526 0.504472582940748 1
16 1 expert_count_bin 2--3 1983 1740 0.877458396369138 0.444902409806459 0.421601867407412 2.65708522440746
17 2 expert_count_bin 2--3 4733 4075 0.860976125079231 0.435003218496791 0.406494180618051 2.56665962391718
18 1 expert_count_bin 4--5 2194 1936 0.882406563354603 0.354391432832638 0.434501893246095 4.43208751139471
19 2 expert_count_bin 4--5 5503 4597 0.835362529529348 0.344489930932836 0.411151430784599 4.34017808468108
20 1 expert_count_bin 6--10 1564 1436 0.918158567774936 0.30087431789946 0.455534718410825 7.46227621483376
21 2 expert_count_bin 6--10 3122 2531 0.810698270339526 0.291057091853021 0.468603655803318 7.02274183215887
22 1 expert_count_bin >10 1288 1237 0.960403726708075 0.226032177926726 0.496678494666528 15.9906832298137
23 2 expert_count_bin >10 1410 1247 0.884397163120567 0.225590440713733 0.484677797077863 15.258865248227
24 1 interval_width_quartile Q1 2082 1964 0.943323727185399 0.234836823506568 0.427252900199234 12.5168107588857
25 2 interval_width_quartile Q1 3667 3137 0.855467684755931 0.224611599610499 0.336836104500498 9.18571038996455
26 1 interval_width_quartile Q2 1752 1598 0.912100456621005 0.32623893175719 0.439056079092374 5.82020547945205
27 2 interval_width_quartile Q2 3996 3316 0.82982982982983 0.325761369694064 0.451615985560038 5.59934934934935
28 1 interval_width_quartile Q3 1868 1641 0.87847965738758 0.387666656091502 0.460880414112048 4.06477516059957
29 2 interval_width_quartile Q3 3880 3252 0.838144329896907 0.389151519326864 0.455512300134519 3.92216494845361
30 1 interval_width_quartile Q4 1753 1495 0.85282373074729 0.522398307318929 0.463810195053108 2.18824871648602
31 2 interval_width_quartile Q4 3996 3465 0.867117117117117 0.510368641582237 0.479130318116811 2.24374374374374