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Publish party-position estimates and validation materials

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Armin Seimel
2026-08-13 15:26:21 +00:00
commit 7666224565
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validation/outputs/ppc/posterior_predictive_by_dimension_decade.csv
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dim_idx,decade,n,covered,missed,observed_coverage,coverage_ci_lower,coverage_ci_upper,mean_interval_width,share_of_all_misses
2,2010,4426,3635,791,0.8212833258020786,0.8097191383350175,0.8322902734687816,0.3388606652193509,0.2530390275111964
2,2000,3965,3341,624,0.8426229508196721,0.8309569390844841,0.8536256857297689,0.3664093299406367,0.19961612284069097
2,1990,3485,2978,507,0.854519368723099,0.8424226784176309,0.8658353290539608,0.3726416336018931,0.16218809980806143
1,2010,2407,2172,235,0.9023680930619028,0.8898612031705257,0.9135926612393135,0.3280651483947886,0.07517594369801664
2,1970,1633,1407,226,0.8616044090630741,0.8440053082890357,0.8775061684476257,0.4100766908612706,0.07229686500319897
2,1980,1772,1557,215,0.878668171557562,0.8626405756384113,0.8930574550868514,0.3911340626362346,0.06877799104286628
1,2000,1758,1572,186,0.89419795221843,0.8789500150085333,0.9077268349421094,0.37352581840447835,0.05950095969289827
1,1990,1454,1279,175,0.8796423658872077,0.8619091688241086,0.8953747500872463,0.38904226378561896,0.05598208573256558
1,1980,712,633,79,0.8890449438202247,0.863854361551315,0.9100598675183562,0.4071944285210122,0.02527191298784389
1,1970,658,580,78,0.8814589665653495,0.8545183231638509,0.9039713214882834,0.4300185935903554,0.02495201535508637
2,2020,258,252,6,0.9767441860465116,0.9502000825748488,0.9892992177655097,0.235360349124426,0.0019193857965451055
1,2020,466,462,4,0.9914163090128756,0.9781395065563742,0.9966571057487091,0.2480109465949484,0.0012795905310300703
1 dim_idx decade n covered missed observed_coverage coverage_ci_lower coverage_ci_upper mean_interval_width share_of_all_misses
2 2 2010 4426 3635 791 0.8212833258020786 0.8097191383350175 0.8322902734687816 0.3388606652193509 0.2530390275111964
3 2 2000 3965 3341 624 0.8426229508196721 0.8309569390844841 0.8536256857297689 0.3664093299406367 0.19961612284069097
4 2 1990 3485 2978 507 0.854519368723099 0.8424226784176309 0.8658353290539608 0.3726416336018931 0.16218809980806143
5 1 2010 2407 2172 235 0.9023680930619028 0.8898612031705257 0.9135926612393135 0.3280651483947886 0.07517594369801664
6 2 1970 1633 1407 226 0.8616044090630741 0.8440053082890357 0.8775061684476257 0.4100766908612706 0.07229686500319897
7 2 1980 1772 1557 215 0.878668171557562 0.8626405756384113 0.8930574550868514 0.3911340626362346 0.06877799104286628
8 1 2000 1758 1572 186 0.89419795221843 0.8789500150085333 0.9077268349421094 0.37352581840447835 0.05950095969289827
9 1 1990 1454 1279 175 0.8796423658872077 0.8619091688241086 0.8953747500872463 0.38904226378561896 0.05598208573256558
10 1 1980 712 633 79 0.8890449438202247 0.863854361551315 0.9100598675183562 0.4071944285210122 0.02527191298784389
11 1 1970 658 580 78 0.8814589665653495 0.8545183231638509 0.9039713214882834 0.4300185935903554 0.02495201535508637
12 2 2020 258 252 6 0.9767441860465116 0.9502000825748488 0.9892992177655097 0.235360349124426 0.0019193857965451055
13 1 2020 466 462 4 0.9914163090128756 0.9781395065563742 0.9966571057487091 0.2480109465949484 0.0012795905310300703