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Publish party-position estimates and validation materials

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Armin Seimel
2026-08-13 15:26:21 +00:00
commit 7666224565
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validation/outputs/ppc/posterior_predictive_by_dimension_country.csv
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dim_idx,country,n,covered,missed,observed_coverage,coverage_ci_lower,coverage_ci_upper,mean_interval_width,share_of_all_misses
2,DK,591,475,116,0.8037225042301185,0.7697822014838583,0.8337398117714353,0.34096506583821323,0.037108125399872044
2,SE,502,397,105,0.7908366533864541,0.753115778828177,0.8241400261510892,0.32724096117398543,0.03358925143953935
2,FI,441,362,79,0.8208616780045351,0.7823477062456757,0.8538338019585928,0.3521254779175972,0.02527191298784389
2,MX,295,219,76,0.7423728813559322,0.6895752975947299,0.7889390725598938,0.23095838836601693,0.02431222008957134
2,NO,361,287,74,0.7950138504155124,0.7503670542041302,0.8334479493480963,0.33480773282277126,0.023672424824056303
2,IL,363,294,69,0.8099173553719008,0.7663888096836808,0.8469549332287913,0.4807755515181515,0.022072936660268713
2,CO,217,153,64,0.7050691244239631,0.6412522930429461,0.7617514888532184,0.29239857298387406,0.020473448496481125
1,SE,251,189,62,0.7529880478087649,0.6960862604122187,0.8022625178092335,0.3335369874622401,0.01983365323096609
2,ES,387,327,60,0.8449612403100775,0.8055273129985262,0.8776138879381191,0.3107361818602786,0.019193857965451054
2,IT,383,325,58,0.8485639686684073,0.8092123043857011,0.8809926787391749,0.3441826985021345,0.018554062699936022
2,CL,258,200,58,0.7751937984496124,0.720430827244006,0.8218817770175019,0.31159594428182186,0.018554062699936022
2,NL,435,379,56,0.871264367816092,0.836511468769764,0.8995172030790307,0.4367839392800082,0.017914267434420986
2,BR,253,198,55,0.782608695652174,0.7277600585652945,0.8290033317889162,0.24562835228921992,0.017594369801663467
2,AU,201,146,55,0.7263681592039801,0.6609221915218342,0.7833235085703347,0.36215838398291056,0.017594369801663467
2,AT,344,290,54,0.8430232558139535,0.8008177602522767,0.8776519799973083,0.3791623669084359,0.01727447216890595
1,IL,153,99,54,0.6470588235294118,0.5685792981324436,0.7183343778310765,0.5109246037503151,0.01727447216890595
2,DE,357,305,52,0.8543417366946778,0.813976063945657,0.8871626074270449,0.3340690683828169,0.016634676903390915
2,JP,388,337,51,0.8685567010309279,0.8312932037080444,0.8985935668645543,0.4148813702986318,0.016314779270633396
2,CA,310,259,51,0.8354838709677419,0.7901543445561301,0.8726003699240408,0.3782700950769002,0.016314779270633396
2,SI,308,259,49,0.8409090909090909,0.7958964745844647,0.877522338043485,0.3439481482100814,0.015674984005118364
2,HU,257,208,49,0.8093385214007782,0.756893380649556,0.8526719647554714,0.2526512872355091,0.015674984005118364
2,EC,335,287,48,0.8567164179104477,0.8151479493922225,0.8901963766881642,0.31209065712944917,0.015355086372360844
2,BE,576,529,47,0.9184027777777778,0.8931769082838773,0.9380845948576705,0.45352564314113547,0.015035188739603326
2,US,252,207,45,0.8214285714285714,0.769423454713083,0.8637808404445456,0.35592321773190133,0.014395393474088292
1,ES,216,171,45,0.7916666666666666,0.7326437318548641,0.8404962016245138,0.28009124799851126,0.014395393474088292
2,PT,337,293,44,0.8694362017804155,0.8292615059623852,0.9012831223928391,0.34994401527984337,0.014075495841330775
2,AR,263,219,44,0.8326996197718631,0.7828705798229194,0.8729492023999423,0.23254374135152828,0.014075495841330775
2,CZ,232,189,43,0.8146551724137931,0.7596723391458756,0.8593872330415587,0.27542780150490975,0.013755598208573257
2,CH,281,240,41,0.8540925266903915,0.8080433555086604,0.890590551898123,0.49418992032134257,0.013115802943058221
1,DK,295,255,40,0.864406779661017,0.820624444905585,0.8988202374947235,0.31889580286763275,0.012795905310300703
2,BG,202,164,38,0.8118811881188119,0.7523552233480405,0.8597659416642799,0.2916225124605349,0.01215611004478567
2,NZ,290,253,37,0.8724137931034482,0.8290883168210503,0.906001609179897,0.3441802885816895,0.011836212412028152
2,RO,223,186,37,0.8340807174887892,0.7796821754591453,0.8771638351491381,0.3520977133829108,0.011836212412028152
2,GR,209,172,37,0.8229665071770335,0.7655271590394533,0.8687473436893366,0.3215915809769824,0.011836212412028152
2,RU,148,111,37,0.75,0.6745102200876807,0.812839755149672,0.3104110864331615,0.011836212412028152
2,TR,232,196,36,0.8448275862068966,0.7926604826623701,0.8857609663101608,0.3406844407917753,0.011516314779270634
2,FR,213,177,36,0.8309859154929577,0.774896736757214,0.8753474968215827,0.35875318414230967,0.011516314779270634
2,IE,262,227,35,0.8664122137404581,0.8198790673988694,0.9023555264344509,0.35141007918500533,0.011196417146513116
2,UA,136,101,35,0.7426470588235294,0.6632160993617318,0.808746463995667,0.29217432021539236,0.011196417146513116
1,SI,160,128,32,0.8,0.7313136012818623,0.8546181767281181,0.3333656098062828,0.010236724248240563
1,IT,205,174,31,0.848780487804878,0.7933527545694111,0.8913767246148127,0.3345779215287422,0.009916826615483045
2,LT,254,224,30,0.8818897637795275,0.8363971467325418,0.9160027763209918,0.3252855971515445,0.009596928982725527
2,SK,236,206,30,0.8728813559322034,0.8243302433439933,0.9094874096403097,0.33529897312785345,0.009596928982725527
2,PL,226,196,30,0.8672566371681416,0.8168254685843553,0.9054110630095772,0.27818801218617073,0.009596928982725527
2,LV,161,132,29,0.8198757763975155,0.753283905194571,0.8715583676297647,0.38134437390282394,0.009277031349968011
1,HU,135,106,29,0.7851851851851852,0.7085254653154678,0.8460633610881463,0.2713613082643666,0.009277031349968011
2,GB,279,251,28,0.899641577060932,0.8587770128396208,0.9296501492185771,0.370345303851619,0.008957133717210493
2,EE,216,188,28,0.8703703703703703,0.8190268904617041,0.90876985046449,0.3211450537007852,0.008957133717210493
2,MK,157,130,27,0.8280254777070064,0.761347791627353,0.8790338011944048,0.3328308552194658,0.008637236084452975
2,LK,105,78,27,0.7428571428571429,0.6517287582972721,0.81684208226369,0.34971136623906696,0.008637236084452975
2,ZA,95,68,27,0.7157894736842105,0.6180880088754301,0.7967170934296721,0.30306657704867573,0.008637236084452975
1,AT,171,146,25,0.8538011695906432,0.793083509290611,0.8989714707599032,0.37001942460440285,0.00799744081893794
1,BA,83,58,25,0.6987951807228916,0.5931077009464831,0.7868945099754714,0.6530091786233316,0.00799744081893794
2,ME,203,179,24,0.8817733990147784,0.8301131383754015,0.9192525598207062,0.42353003104370995,0.007677543186180422
2,IS,366,343,23,0.9371584699453552,0.9074711874187165,0.9577640916845538,0.46607262217429696,0.007357645553422905
1,BE,285,264,21,0.9263157894736842,0.889987337420522,0.9513042216900769,0.40310108530566724,0.0067178502879078695
2,AZ,40,20,20,0.5,0.35199278797099753,0.6480072120290025,0.2980013360440449,0.006397952655150352
1,NL,243,224,19,0.9218106995884774,0.8811167329480407,0.9493753721104259,0.3745567128537068,0.006078055022392835
2,RS,183,164,19,0.8961748633879781,0.8435383807295037,0.9325200559355645,0.48057773591470687,0.006078055022392835
2,UY,94,76,18,0.8085106382978723,0.7174953172054067,0.8752995675879734,0.3109213794683214,0.005758157389635317
1,NO,170,153,17,0.9,0.8456966542360402,0.9366247233858869,0.36682308236936995,0.005438259756877799
2,BA,199,183,16,0.9195979899497487,0.8733962313299496,0.9499062864967683,0.6105957548661178,0.005118362124120281
1,CH,140,124,16,0.8857142857142857,0.8224079013357011,0.9284180071636483,0.4091358813624531,0.005118362124120281
1,MX,127,112,15,0.8818897637795275,0.8142508293208697,0.927103602297209,0.24070792429332802,0.0047984644913627635
2,KR,96,81,15,0.84375,0.7580833433259717,0.9029637552782173,0.3501280262251946,0.0047984644913627635
2,CR,184,170,14,0.9239130434782609,0.8763482447676944,0.9541387187164326,0.4240691990563173,0.004478566858605247
1,MK,64,50,14,0.78125,0.665669836692222,0.8649780253865025,0.3637505042383261,0.004478566858605247
2,AM,121,108,13,0.8925619834710744,0.8248333699926145,0.9361309239606832,0.37292993312555567,0.004158669225847729
1,AL,56,43,13,0.7678571428571429,0.6423159664807568,0.8590075275434671,0.5186502605516307,0.004158669225847729
1,UA,55,42,13,0.7636363636363637,0.6365138127856039,0.8563347841254251,0.3040723953102151,0.004158669225847729
2,HR,174,162,12,0.9310344827586207,0.8833348945779347,0.9601123078763842,0.341013473723335,0.003838771593090211
1,GR,108,96,12,0.8888888888888888,0.8157742465799382,0.9352879699834871,0.2789163242525437,0.003838771593090211
1,IS,171,160,11,0.935672514619883,0.888495316776368,0.9637046173354223,0.6102330906402569,0.0035188739603326936
1,CZ,129,118,11,0.9147286821705426,0.8537505978816597,0.9517199776007192,0.25019187582739527,0.0035188739603326936
1,EE,111,100,11,0.9009009009009009,0.8312201328230934,0.9437603620498446,0.32454417830607984,0.0035188739603326936
2,MD,110,99,11,0.9,0.8297634281701123,0.9432404649585859,0.46023339022640763,0.0035188739603326936
2,PE,99,88,11,0.8888888888888888,0.8119092356335661,0.9368150160311298,0.34410418427967504,0.0035188739603326936
1,TR,97,86,11,0.8865979381443299,0.8082535953989312,0.9354870830512321,0.34751860404266116,0.0035188739603326936
1,LV,85,74,11,0.8705882352941177,0.7829500250687882,0.9261772306312444,0.36322532983792966,0.0035188739603326936
1,KR,39,28,11,0.717948717948718,0.5622438267752261,0.8345667498605671,0.3412018490131779,0.0035188739603326936
1,JP,157,147,10,0.9363057324840764,0.8867313745947507,0.9650383168283638,0.39560782642414705,0.003198976327575176
1,RO,119,109,10,0.9159663865546218,0.8522002206672478,0.9537156905550092,0.3450090838568076,0.003198976327575176
1,PL,115,105,10,0.9130434782608695,0.8473013610685256,0.952082019835131,0.28188380039634586,0.003198976327575176
1,BR,106,96,10,0.9056603773584906,0.8349975646766294,0.9479480588394156,0.2781748830219968,0.003198976327575176
1,RS,75,65,10,0.8666666666666667,0.7716663173307007,0.9259349490058527,0.5238352359916794,0.003198976327575176
1,ZA,41,31,10,0.7560975609756098,0.606563693455418,0.8617514424897758,0.31796447495280955,0.003198976327575176
1,AR,107,98,9,0.9158878504672897,0.8478290663839783,0.9551185633867938,0.2590492120275288,0.0028790786948176585
2,GE,107,98,9,0.9158878504672897,0.8478290663839783,0.9551185633867938,0.3068691997966909,0.0028790786948176585
1,MD,47,38,9,0.8085106382978723,0.674557199356223,0.8958418439468988,0.48248726172118933,0.0028790786948176585
1,CA,130,122,8,0.9384615384615385,0.883262024591287,0.9684910925262609,0.38864811076419375,0.0025591810620601407
1,FR,129,121,8,0.937984496124031,0.8823929248324613,0.9682442249760324,0.3186875483735639,0.0025591810620601407
1,BG,111,103,8,0.9279279279279279,0.8641960123478968,0.963030358583891,0.2792821661933207,0.0025591810620601407
1,RU,61,53,8,0.8688524590163934,0.761978875735935,0.932020038541319,0.3020174104723059,0.0025591810620601407
1,DO,55,47,8,0.8545454545454545,0.7383883791170325,0.9244080098322822,0.3507704119914383,0.0025591810620601407
1,GE,44,36,8,0.8181818181818182,0.6803916324485767,0.9048730744174144,0.3134903637928707,0.0025591810620601407
2,CY,217,210,7,0.967741935483871,0.9349226644801334,0.9842882088335903,0.5734898387706777,0.0022392834293026233
1,FI,229,223,6,0.9737991266375546,0.9440260882227658,0.9879379594388205,0.38491873958615963,0.0019193857965451055
1,PT,174,168,6,0.9655172413793104,0.9268205486728962,0.9841024299777683,0.30839086537508603,0.0019193857965451055
1,IE,147,141,6,0.9591836734693877,0.9138168781025923,0.9811616954474097,0.3296791743347659,0.0019193857965451055
2,DO,137,131,6,0.9562043795620438,0.9077457553614567,0.9797761131773843,0.3121786527987746,0.0019193857965451055
1,NZ,119,113,6,0.9495798319327731,0.8943504337593848,0.9766899955414383,0.36970184694787017,0.0019193857965451055
1,CR,82,76,6,0.926829268292683,0.8494197580293277,0.9660356854852388,0.4502654149628391,0.0019193857965451055
2,BO,67,61,6,0.9104477611940298,0.8180703630060067,0.9583096171186658,0.3867585762329881,0.0019193857965451055
1,CO,94,89,5,0.9468085106382979,0.8814619333292169,0.9770685894749891,0.30738835816785365,0.001599488163787588
1,AU,84,79,5,0.9404761904761905,0.8681156389946401,0.974309817736567,0.3868366747554773,0.001599488163787588
1,MT,51,46,5,0.9019607843137255,0.7902151004554693,0.957392555046923,0.412861442923319,0.001599488163787588
2,LU,195,191,4,0.9794871794871794,0.9484521905551939,0.9919948788709221,0.5887031891018235,0.0012795905310300703
1,GB,159,155,4,0.9748427672955975,0.9371069914760977,0.9901744894231321,0.3468535073751794,0.0012795905310300703
1,SK,136,132,4,0.9705882352941176,0.9268170119919115,0.9885043230042556,0.3001364805853944,0.0012795905310300703
2,PA,111,107,4,0.963963963963964,0.9109886133681347,0.9858989256421195,0.44053760146375887,0.0012795905310300703
1,CL,108,104,4,0.9629629629629629,0.9086169931912852,0.9855046931937449,0.3361433609582821,0.0012795905310300703
2,MT,108,104,4,0.9629629629629629,0.9086169931912852,0.9855046931937449,0.4378735194312487,0.0012795905310300703
1,ME,83,79,4,0.9518072289156626,0.8825396981330589,0.9811016903259284,0.43751204937744714,0.0012795905310300703
1,AM,49,45,4,0.9183673469387755,0.8081061295851387,0.9677977037582878,0.39260685052353583,0.0012795905310300703
1,BO,28,24,4,0.8571428571428571,0.6850982695512267,0.9430108706929821,0.3811838942312988,0.0012795905310300703
2,BY,20,16,4,0.8,0.5839782779742401,0.9193436467288,0.3008351252498642,0.0012795905310300703
1,US,102,99,3,0.9705882352941176,0.9170680330254163,0.9899477339319994,0.3643205736622997,0.0009596928982725527
1,EC,140,138,2,0.9857142857142858,0.9494108358295452,0.996073641540006,0.32508504307508695,0.0006397952655150352
2,AL,137,135,2,0.9854014598540146,0.9483358027023897,0.9959874654229369,0.49710422870429904,0.0006397952655150352
1,HR,101,99,2,0.9801980198019802,0.930652470326113,0.9945527917072783,0.3649866310600937,0.0006397952655150352
1,AZ,17,15,2,0.8823529411764706,0.6566315750229009,0.967120919987079,0.36949713651622773,0.0006397952655150352
1,LT,143,142,1,0.993006993006993,0.9614538318329731,0.998764525907613,0.31638979824789865,0.0003198976327575176
1,CY,111,110,1,0.990990990990991,0.9507254595746947,0.9984079554944091,0.497761655437717,0.0003198976327575176
1,LU,91,90,1,0.989010989010989,0.9403491964093862,0.9980575786766521,0.6116481162424328,0.0003198976327575176
1,LK,42,41,1,0.9761904761904762,0.8767851883475174,0.9957847045008997,0.34106251758408546,0.0003198976327575176
1,DE,183,183,0,1.0,0.9794392683428103,1.0,0.31953359319260993,0.0
1,PA,46,46,0,1.0,0.9229238226702192,1.0,0.47798085651444294,0.0
1,PE,42,42,0,1.0,0.9161983874908382,1.0000000000000002,0.3607698524521948,0.0
1,UY,40,40,0,1.0,0.9123754607496077,1.0,0.34705297518279504,0.0
1,BY,8,8,0,1.0,0.6755843804891231,1.0,0.28189720100301907,0.0
1 dim_idx country n covered missed observed_coverage coverage_ci_lower coverage_ci_upper mean_interval_width share_of_all_misses
2 2 DK 591 475 116 0.8037225042301185 0.7697822014838583 0.8337398117714353 0.34096506583821323 0.037108125399872044
3 2 SE 502 397 105 0.7908366533864541 0.753115778828177 0.8241400261510892 0.32724096117398543 0.03358925143953935
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75 1 CZ 129 118 11 0.9147286821705426 0.8537505978816597 0.9517199776007192 0.25019187582739527 0.0035188739603326936
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78 2 PE 99 88 11 0.8888888888888888 0.8119092356335661 0.9368150160311298 0.34410418427967504 0.0035188739603326936
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80 1 LV 85 74 11 0.8705882352941177 0.7829500250687882 0.9261772306312444 0.36322532983792966 0.0035188739603326936
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90 1 MD 47 38 9 0.8085106382978723 0.674557199356223 0.8958418439468988 0.48248726172118933 0.0028790786948176585
91 1 CA 130 122 8 0.9384615384615385 0.883262024591287 0.9684910925262609 0.38864811076419375 0.0025591810620601407
92 1 FR 129 121 8 0.937984496124031 0.8823929248324613 0.9682442249760324 0.3186875483735639 0.0025591810620601407
93 1 BG 111 103 8 0.9279279279279279 0.8641960123478968 0.963030358583891 0.2792821661933207 0.0025591810620601407
94 1 RU 61 53 8 0.8688524590163934 0.761978875735935 0.932020038541319 0.3020174104723059 0.0025591810620601407
95 1 DO 55 47 8 0.8545454545454545 0.7383883791170325 0.9244080098322822 0.3507704119914383 0.0025591810620601407
96 1 GE 44 36 8 0.8181818181818182 0.6803916324485767 0.9048730744174144 0.3134903637928707 0.0025591810620601407
97 2 CY 217 210 7 0.967741935483871 0.9349226644801334 0.9842882088335903 0.5734898387706777 0.0022392834293026233
98 1 FI 229 223 6 0.9737991266375546 0.9440260882227658 0.9879379594388205 0.38491873958615963 0.0019193857965451055
99 1 PT 174 168 6 0.9655172413793104 0.9268205486728962 0.9841024299777683 0.30839086537508603 0.0019193857965451055
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101 2 DO 137 131 6 0.9562043795620438 0.9077457553614567 0.9797761131773843 0.3121786527987746 0.0019193857965451055
102 1 NZ 119 113 6 0.9495798319327731 0.8943504337593848 0.9766899955414383 0.36970184694787017 0.0019193857965451055
103 1 CR 82 76 6 0.926829268292683 0.8494197580293277 0.9660356854852388 0.4502654149628391 0.0019193857965451055
104 2 BO 67 61 6 0.9104477611940298 0.8180703630060067 0.9583096171186658 0.3867585762329881 0.0019193857965451055
105 1 CO 94 89 5 0.9468085106382979 0.8814619333292169 0.9770685894749891 0.30738835816785365 0.001599488163787588
106 1 AU 84 79 5 0.9404761904761905 0.8681156389946401 0.974309817736567 0.3868366747554773 0.001599488163787588
107 1 MT 51 46 5 0.9019607843137255 0.7902151004554693 0.957392555046923 0.412861442923319 0.001599488163787588
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109 1 GB 159 155 4 0.9748427672955975 0.9371069914760977 0.9901744894231321 0.3468535073751794 0.0012795905310300703
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124 1 CY 111 110 1 0.990990990990991 0.9507254595746947 0.9984079554944091 0.497761655437717 0.0003198976327575176
125 1 LU 91 90 1 0.989010989010989 0.9403491964093862 0.9980575786766521 0.6116481162424328 0.0003198976327575176
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128 1 PA 46 46 0 1.0 0.9229238226702192 1.0 0.47798085651444294 0.0
129 1 PE 42 42 0 1.0 0.9161983874908382 1.0000000000000002 0.3607698524521948 0.0
130 1 UY 40 40 0 1.0 0.9123754607496077 1.0 0.34705297518279504 0.0
131 1 BY 8 8 0 1.0 0.6755843804891231 1.0 0.28189720100301907 0.0
validation/outputs/ppc/posterior_predictive_by_dimension_decade.csv
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@@ -0,0 +1,13 @@
dim_idx,decade,n,covered,missed,observed_coverage,coverage_ci_lower,coverage_ci_upper,mean_interval_width,share_of_all_misses
2,2010,4426,3635,791,0.8212833258020786,0.8097191383350175,0.8322902734687816,0.3388606652193509,0.2530390275111964
2,2000,3965,3341,624,0.8426229508196721,0.8309569390844841,0.8536256857297689,0.3664093299406367,0.19961612284069097
2,1990,3485,2978,507,0.854519368723099,0.8424226784176309,0.8658353290539608,0.3726416336018931,0.16218809980806143
1,2010,2407,2172,235,0.9023680930619028,0.8898612031705257,0.9135926612393135,0.3280651483947886,0.07517594369801664
2,1970,1633,1407,226,0.8616044090630741,0.8440053082890357,0.8775061684476257,0.4100766908612706,0.07229686500319897
2,1980,1772,1557,215,0.878668171557562,0.8626405756384113,0.8930574550868514,0.3911340626362346,0.06877799104286628
1,2000,1758,1572,186,0.89419795221843,0.8789500150085333,0.9077268349421094,0.37352581840447835,0.05950095969289827
1,1990,1454,1279,175,0.8796423658872077,0.8619091688241086,0.8953747500872463,0.38904226378561896,0.05598208573256558
1,1980,712,633,79,0.8890449438202247,0.863854361551315,0.9100598675183562,0.4071944285210122,0.02527191298784389
1,1970,658,580,78,0.8814589665653495,0.8545183231638509,0.9039713214882834,0.4300185935903554,0.02495201535508637
2,2020,258,252,6,0.9767441860465116,0.9502000825748488,0.9892992177655097,0.235360349124426,0.0019193857965451055
1,2020,466,462,4,0.9914163090128756,0.9781395065563742,0.9966571057487091,0.2480109465949484,0.0012795905310300703
1 dim_idx decade n covered missed observed_coverage coverage_ci_lower coverage_ci_upper mean_interval_width share_of_all_misses
2 2 2010 4426 3635 791 0.8212833258020786 0.8097191383350175 0.8322902734687816 0.3388606652193509 0.2530390275111964
3 2 2000 3965 3341 624 0.8426229508196721 0.8309569390844841 0.8536256857297689 0.3664093299406367 0.19961612284069097
4 2 1990 3485 2978 507 0.854519368723099 0.8424226784176309 0.8658353290539608 0.3726416336018931 0.16218809980806143
5 1 2010 2407 2172 235 0.9023680930619028 0.8898612031705257 0.9135926612393135 0.3280651483947886 0.07517594369801664
6 2 1970 1633 1407 226 0.8616044090630741 0.8440053082890357 0.8775061684476257 0.4100766908612706 0.07229686500319897
7 2 1980 1772 1557 215 0.878668171557562 0.8626405756384113 0.8930574550868514 0.3911340626362346 0.06877799104286628
8 1 2000 1758 1572 186 0.89419795221843 0.8789500150085333 0.9077268349421094 0.37352581840447835 0.05950095969289827
9 1 1990 1454 1279 175 0.8796423658872077 0.8619091688241086 0.8953747500872463 0.38904226378561896 0.05598208573256558
10 1 1980 712 633 79 0.8890449438202247 0.863854361551315 0.9100598675183562 0.4071944285210122 0.02527191298784389
11 1 1970 658 580 78 0.8814589665653495 0.8545183231638509 0.9039713214882834 0.4300185935903554 0.02495201535508637
12 2 2020 258 252 6 0.9767441860465116 0.9502000825748488 0.9892992177655097 0.235360349124426 0.0019193857965451055
13 1 2020 466 462 4 0.9914163090128756 0.9781395065563742 0.9966571057487091 0.2480109465949484 0.0012795905310300703
validation/outputs/ppc/posterior_predictive_by_dimension_item.csv
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dim_idx,project,var,n,covered,missed,observed_coverage,coverage_ci_lower,coverage_ci_upper,mean_interval_width,share_of_all_misses
2,V-Party,gender_vparty,2802,2119,683,0.7562455389007852,0.7400041833684662,0.7717852205665244,0.40881512947959253,0.21849008317338453
2,V-Party,relig_vparty,2828,2262,566,0.7998585572842999,0.7847095841432594,0.8141939703493366,0.2882881086220928,0.18106206014075496
1,V-Party,welf_vparty,2818,2261,557,0.8023420865862314,0.787231173137499,0.8166297948204475,0.4001936033568574,0.1781829814459373
2,V-Party,culsup_vparty,2828,2387,441,0.844059405940594,0.8302220160564773,0.856963312388447,0.39195419130327286,0.14107485604606526
2,V-Party,immig_vparty,2828,2487,341,0.8794200848656294,0.8669005216436195,0.8909102259631675,0.39156281472441545,0.1090850927703135
2,V-Party,lgbt_vparty,2828,2579,249,0.9119519094766619,0.9009413114843197,0.921844821751381,0.4007675443770831,0.07965451055662189
1,V-Party,lrecon_vparty,2827,2679,148,0.9476476830562434,0.9388125348768209,0.9552678686328632,0.3937581954807973,0.04734484964811261
2,CHES,galtan_ches,1176,1109,67,0.9430272108843537,0.9282799190767855,0.9548894826462931,0.26190336027902683,0.02143314139475368
1,CHES,lrecon_ches,1177,1145,32,0.9728122344944775,0.9618713612264376,0.9806767332851378,0.2537544114580155,0.010236724248240563
2,GPS,libcon_gps,249,227,22,0.9116465863453815,0.8698544742943817,0.940929827023123,0.2281137815345669,0.007037747920665387
1,GPS,lrecon_gps,249,234,15,0.9397590361445783,0.9029977562632928,0.9631571802661391,0.23441440673165534,0.0047984644913627635
1,POPPA,lrecon_poppa,384,379,5,0.9869791666666666,0.9698853213826314,0.9944258819539885,0.2668966115681637,0.001599488163787588
1 dim_idx project var n covered missed observed_coverage coverage_ci_lower coverage_ci_upper mean_interval_width share_of_all_misses
2 2 V-Party gender_vparty 2802 2119 683 0.7562455389007852 0.7400041833684662 0.7717852205665244 0.40881512947959253 0.21849008317338453
3 2 V-Party relig_vparty 2828 2262 566 0.7998585572842999 0.7847095841432594 0.8141939703493366 0.2882881086220928 0.18106206014075496
4 1 V-Party welf_vparty 2818 2261 557 0.8023420865862314 0.787231173137499 0.8166297948204475 0.4001936033568574 0.1781829814459373
5 2 V-Party culsup_vparty 2828 2387 441 0.844059405940594 0.8302220160564773 0.856963312388447 0.39195419130327286 0.14107485604606526
6 2 V-Party immig_vparty 2828 2487 341 0.8794200848656294 0.8669005216436195 0.8909102259631675 0.39156281472441545 0.1090850927703135
7 2 V-Party lgbt_vparty 2828 2579 249 0.9119519094766619 0.9009413114843197 0.921844821751381 0.4007675443770831 0.07965451055662189
8 1 V-Party lrecon_vparty 2827 2679 148 0.9476476830562434 0.9388125348768209 0.9552678686328632 0.3937581954807973 0.04734484964811261
9 2 CHES galtan_ches 1176 1109 67 0.9430272108843537 0.9282799190767855 0.9548894826462931 0.26190336027902683 0.02143314139475368
10 1 CHES lrecon_ches 1177 1145 32 0.9728122344944775 0.9618713612264376 0.9806767332851378 0.2537544114580155 0.010236724248240563
11 2 GPS libcon_gps 249 227 22 0.9116465863453815 0.8698544742943817 0.940929827023123 0.2281137815345669 0.007037747920665387
12 1 GPS lrecon_gps 249 234 15 0.9397590361445783 0.9029977562632928 0.9631571802661391 0.23441440673165534 0.0047984644913627635
13 1 POPPA lrecon_poppa 384 379 5 0.9869791666666666 0.9698853213826314 0.9944258819539885 0.2668966115681637 0.001599488163787588
validation/outputs/ppc/posterior_predictive_by_dimension_source.csv
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dim_idx,project,n,covered,missed,observed_coverage,coverage_ci_lower,coverage_ci_upper,mean_interval_width,share_of_all_misses
2,V-Party,14114,11834,2280,0.8384582683859997,0.8322945450978664,0.8444377961971373,0.37621761885573124,0.7293666026871402
1,V-Party,5645,4940,705,0.87511071744907,0.8662305886687013,0.883480644161761,0.3969707693328323,0.2255278310940499
2,CHES,1176,1109,67,0.9430272108843537,0.9282799190767855,0.9548894826462931,0.26190336027902683,0.02143314139475368
1,CHES,1177,1145,32,0.9728122344944775,0.9618713612264376,0.9806767332851378,0.2537544114580155,0.010236724248240563
2,GPS,249,227,22,0.9116465863453815,0.8698544742943817,0.940929827023123,0.2281137815345669,0.007037747920665387
1,GPS,249,234,15,0.9397590361445783,0.9029977562632928,0.9631571802661391,0.23441440673165534,0.0047984644913627635
1,POPPA,384,379,5,0.9869791666666666,0.9698853213826314,0.9944258819539885,0.2668966115681637,0.001599488163787588
1 dim_idx project n covered missed observed_coverage coverage_ci_lower coverage_ci_upper mean_interval_width share_of_all_misses
2 2 V-Party 14114 11834 2280 0.8384582683859997 0.8322945450978664 0.8444377961971373 0.37621761885573124 0.7293666026871402
3 1 V-Party 5645 4940 705 0.87511071744907 0.8662305886687013 0.883480644161761 0.3969707693328323 0.2255278310940499
4 2 CHES 1176 1109 67 0.9430272108843537 0.9282799190767855 0.9548894826462931 0.26190336027902683 0.02143314139475368
5 1 CHES 1177 1145 32 0.9728122344944775 0.9618713612264376 0.9806767332851378 0.2537544114580155 0.010236724248240563
6 2 GPS 249 227 22 0.9116465863453815 0.8698544742943817 0.940929827023123 0.2281137815345669 0.007037747920665387
7 1 GPS 249 234 15 0.9397590361445783 0.9029977562632928 0.9631571802661391 0.23441440673165534 0.0047984644913627635
8 1 POPPA 384 379 5 0.9869791666666666 0.9698853213826314 0.9944258819539885 0.2668966115681637 0.001599488163787588
validation/outputs/ppc/posterior_predictive_calibration_curve.csv
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dim_idx,nominal_level,observed_coverage,covered,n
1,0.5,0.4886653252850436,3643,7455
1,0.8,0.7585513078470825,5655,7455
1,0.9,0.848692152917505,6327,7455
1,0.95,0.8984574111334674,6698,7455
2,0.5,0.4237080893236373,6584,15539
2,0.8,0.6785507432910741,10544,15539
2,0.9,0.7784928245060815,12097,15539
2,0.95,0.8475448870583693,13170,15539
1 dim_idx nominal_level observed_coverage covered n
2 1 0.5 0.4886653252850436 3643 7455
3 1 0.8 0.7585513078470825 5655 7455
4 1 0.9 0.848692152917505 6327 7455
5 1 0.95 0.8984574111334674 6698 7455
6 2 0.5 0.4237080893236373 6584 15539
7 2 0.8 0.6785507432910741 10544 15539
8 2 0.9 0.7784928245060815 12097 15539
9 2 0.95 0.8475448870583693 13170 15539
validation/outputs/ppc/posterior_predictive_residual_patterns.csv
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"dim_idx","group_type","group","n","covered","observed_coverage","mean_interval_width","mean_fitted_value","mean_expert_count"
1,"fitted_bin","<0.10",186,173,0.93010752688172,0.201343935349587,0.0742982979906544,6.90860215053763
2,"fitted_bin","<0.10",1136,1057,0.930457746478873,0.199591148849266,0.0563123796238274,4.14700704225352
1,"fitted_bin","0.10--0.25",1048,951,0.907442748091603,0.314041549598746,0.184525433560757,5.61927480916031
2,"fitted_bin","0.10--0.25",2188,1825,0.834095063985375,0.317890840699561,0.178618057950006,5.16499085923218
1,"fitted_bin","0.25--0.50",3246,2901,0.893715341959335,0.386906127490127,0.378663668829021,6.03789279112754
2,"fitted_bin","0.25--0.50",5968,5095,0.853719839142091,0.398286462549822,0.386935866391175,5.08176943699732
1,"fitted_bin","0.50--0.75",2556,2275,0.890062597809077,0.375315993025779,0.611178265471442,6.72339593114241
2,"fitted_bin","0.50--0.75",5355,4448,0.83062558356676,0.392888401688966,0.602719664402968,5.07581699346405
1,"fitted_bin","0.75--0.90",412,393,0.953883495145631,0.285225609283457,0.795682066295318,8.87621359223301
2,"fitted_bin","0.75--0.90",782,647,0.827365728900256,0.325761069731583,0.802604598684315,6.67519181585678
1,"fitted_bin",">=0.90",7,5,0.714285714285714,0.16328375744906,0.916229942632867,10.1428571428571
2,"fitted_bin",">=0.90",110,98,0.890909090909091,0.152884501861608,0.932790231810077,13.6545454545455
1,"expert_count_bin","1",426,349,0.81924882629108,0.65481986066405,0.448917410089667,1
2,"expert_count_bin","1",771,720,0.933852140077821,0.639913191413526,0.504472582940748,1
1,"expert_count_bin","2--3",1983,1740,0.877458396369138,0.444902409806459,0.421601867407412,2.65708522440746
2,"expert_count_bin","2--3",4733,4075,0.860976125079231,0.435003218496791,0.406494180618051,2.56665962391718
1,"expert_count_bin","4--5",2194,1936,0.882406563354603,0.354391432832638,0.434501893246095,4.43208751139471
2,"expert_count_bin","4--5",5503,4597,0.835362529529348,0.344489930932836,0.411151430784599,4.34017808468108
1,"expert_count_bin","6--10",1564,1436,0.918158567774936,0.30087431789946,0.455534718410825,7.46227621483376
2,"expert_count_bin","6--10",3122,2531,0.810698270339526,0.291057091853021,0.468603655803318,7.02274183215887
1,"expert_count_bin",">10",1288,1237,0.960403726708075,0.226032177926726,0.496678494666528,15.9906832298137
2,"expert_count_bin",">10",1410,1247,0.884397163120567,0.225590440713733,0.484677797077863,15.258865248227
1,"interval_width_quartile","Q1",2082,1964,0.943323727185399,0.234836823506568,0.427252900199234,12.5168107588857
2,"interval_width_quartile","Q1",3667,3137,0.855467684755931,0.224611599610499,0.336836104500498,9.18571038996455
1,"interval_width_quartile","Q2",1752,1598,0.912100456621005,0.32623893175719,0.439056079092374,5.82020547945205
2,"interval_width_quartile","Q2",3996,3316,0.82982982982983,0.325761369694064,0.451615985560038,5.59934934934935
1,"interval_width_quartile","Q3",1868,1641,0.87847965738758,0.387666656091502,0.460880414112048,4.06477516059957
2,"interval_width_quartile","Q3",3880,3252,0.838144329896907,0.389151519326864,0.455512300134519,3.92216494845361
1,"interval_width_quartile","Q4",1753,1495,0.85282373074729,0.522398307318929,0.463810195053108,2.18824871648602
2,"interval_width_quartile","Q4",3996,3465,0.867117117117117,0.510368641582237,0.479130318116811,2.24374374374374
1 dim_idx group_type group n covered observed_coverage mean_interval_width mean_fitted_value mean_expert_count
2 1 fitted_bin <0.10 186 173 0.93010752688172 0.201343935349587 0.0742982979906544 6.90860215053763
3 2 fitted_bin <0.10 1136 1057 0.930457746478873 0.199591148849266 0.0563123796238274 4.14700704225352
4 1 fitted_bin 0.10--0.25 1048 951 0.907442748091603 0.314041549598746 0.184525433560757 5.61927480916031
5 2 fitted_bin 0.10--0.25 2188 1825 0.834095063985375 0.317890840699561 0.178618057950006 5.16499085923218
6 1 fitted_bin 0.25--0.50 3246 2901 0.893715341959335 0.386906127490127 0.378663668829021 6.03789279112754
7 2 fitted_bin 0.25--0.50 5968 5095 0.853719839142091 0.398286462549822 0.386935866391175 5.08176943699732
8 1 fitted_bin 0.50--0.75 2556 2275 0.890062597809077 0.375315993025779 0.611178265471442 6.72339593114241
9 2 fitted_bin 0.50--0.75 5355 4448 0.83062558356676 0.392888401688966 0.602719664402968 5.07581699346405
10 1 fitted_bin 0.75--0.90 412 393 0.953883495145631 0.285225609283457 0.795682066295318 8.87621359223301
11 2 fitted_bin 0.75--0.90 782 647 0.827365728900256 0.325761069731583 0.802604598684315 6.67519181585678
12 1 fitted_bin >=0.90 7 5 0.714285714285714 0.16328375744906 0.916229942632867 10.1428571428571
13 2 fitted_bin >=0.90 110 98 0.890909090909091 0.152884501861608 0.932790231810077 13.6545454545455
14 1 expert_count_bin 1 426 349 0.81924882629108 0.65481986066405 0.448917410089667 1
15 2 expert_count_bin 1 771 720 0.933852140077821 0.639913191413526 0.504472582940748 1
16 1 expert_count_bin 2--3 1983 1740 0.877458396369138 0.444902409806459 0.421601867407412 2.65708522440746
17 2 expert_count_bin 2--3 4733 4075 0.860976125079231 0.435003218496791 0.406494180618051 2.56665962391718
18 1 expert_count_bin 4--5 2194 1936 0.882406563354603 0.354391432832638 0.434501893246095 4.43208751139471
19 2 expert_count_bin 4--5 5503 4597 0.835362529529348 0.344489930932836 0.411151430784599 4.34017808468108
20 1 expert_count_bin 6--10 1564 1436 0.918158567774936 0.30087431789946 0.455534718410825 7.46227621483376
21 2 expert_count_bin 6--10 3122 2531 0.810698270339526 0.291057091853021 0.468603655803318 7.02274183215887
22 1 expert_count_bin >10 1288 1237 0.960403726708075 0.226032177926726 0.496678494666528 15.9906832298137
23 2 expert_count_bin >10 1410 1247 0.884397163120567 0.225590440713733 0.484677797077863 15.258865248227
24 1 interval_width_quartile Q1 2082 1964 0.943323727185399 0.234836823506568 0.427252900199234 12.5168107588857
25 2 interval_width_quartile Q1 3667 3137 0.855467684755931 0.224611599610499 0.336836104500498 9.18571038996455
26 1 interval_width_quartile Q2 1752 1598 0.912100456621005 0.32623893175719 0.439056079092374 5.82020547945205
27 2 interval_width_quartile Q2 3996 3316 0.82982982982983 0.325761369694064 0.451615985560038 5.59934934934935
28 1 interval_width_quartile Q3 1868 1641 0.87847965738758 0.387666656091502 0.460880414112048 4.06477516059957
29 2 interval_width_quartile Q3 3880 3252 0.838144329896907 0.389151519326864 0.455512300134519 3.92216494845361
30 1 interval_width_quartile Q4 1753 1495 0.85282373074729 0.522398307318929 0.463810195053108 2.18824871648602
31 2 interval_width_quartile Q4 3996 3465 0.867117117117117 0.510368641582237 0.479130318116811 2.24374374374374
validation/outputs/ppc/uncertainty_cic_80pct_summary_2026-08-12_16-50-24.csv
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dimension,cic,cic_pct,ci_lower,ci_upper,n,covered
economic_lr,0.7585513078470825,75.9,0.7487048592332345,0.7681314280529844,7455,5655
galtan,0.6785507432910741,67.9,0.6711640763491561,0.6858491483111274,15539,10544
1 dimension cic cic_pct ci_lower ci_upper n covered
2 economic_lr 0.7585513078470825 75.9 0.7487048592332345 0.7681314280529844 7455 5655
3 galtan 0.6785507432910741 67.9 0.6711640763491561 0.6858491483111274 15539 10544
validation/outputs/ppc/uncertainty_cic_summary_2026-08-12_16-50-24.csv
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dimension,cic,cic_pct,ci_lower,ci_upper,n,covered
economic_lr,0.8984574111334674,89.8,0.8913943427959263,0.9051100366508769,7455,6698
galtan,0.8475448870583693,84.8,0.8418071013756855,0.8531108729540536,15539,13170
1 dimension cic cic_pct ci_lower ci_upper n covered
2 economic_lr 0.8984574111334674 89.8 0.8913943427959263 0.9051100366508769 7455 6698
3 galtan 0.8475448870583693 84.8 0.8418071013756855 0.8531108729540536 15539 13170
validation/outputs/ppc/uncertainty_economic_lr_by_project_2026-08-12_16-50-24.csv
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project,n,covered,cic
V-Party,5645,4940,0.87511071744907
CHES,1177,1145,0.9728122344944775
POPPA,384,379,0.9869791666666666
GPS,249,234,0.9397590361445783
1 project n covered cic
2 V-Party 5645 4940 0.87511071744907
3 CHES 1177 1145 0.9728122344944775
4 POPPA 384 379 0.9869791666666666
5 GPS 249 234 0.9397590361445783
validation/outputs/ppc/uncertainty_galtan_by_project_2026-08-12_16-50-24.csv
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project,n,covered,cic
V-Party,14114,11834,0.8384582683859997
CHES,1176,1109,0.9430272108843537
GPS,249,227,0.9116465863453815
1 project n covered cic
2 V-Party 14114 11834 0.8384582683859997
3 CHES 1176 1109 0.9430272108843537
4 GPS 249 227 0.9116465863453815