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Publish party-position estimates and validation materials

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Armin Seimel
2026-08-13 15:26:21 +00:00
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validation/outputs/party_landmark_plot_data.csv
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"party_id","target_year","label","status","actual_year","party_name","country","economic_lr","economic_lower","economic_upper","galtan","galtan_lower","galtan_upper","source_support_class","era"
383,1972,"SPD 1972","exact",1972,"Social Democratic Party of Germany","DE",0.271573270375,0.162936225,0.38761415,0.370199619125,0.2680677,0.473299475,"both_direct_or_nearby","Historical & Cold War Era (1970–1999)"
383,2021,"SPD 2021","exact",2021,"Social Democratic Party of Germany","DE",0.2363366825,0.148430575,0.330595375,0.36824540875,0.27656695,0.461600275,"both_direct_or_nearby","Contemporary Era (2000–2022)"
1375,1983,"CDU 1983","exact",1983,"Christian Democratic Union","DE",0.704186118875,0.559885375,0.832835125,0.6167079735,0.5088347,0.716463575,"text_only_direct_or_nearby","Historical & Cold War Era (1970–1999)"
1375,2021,"CDU 2021","exact",2021,"Christian Democratic Union","DE",0.57714137175,0.45681705,0.69505505,0.536185121875,0.433751725,0.636189175,"text_only_direct_or_nearby","Contemporary Era (2000–2022)"
1516,1983,"Labour 1983","exact",1983,"Labour Party","GB",0.259080600525,0.1453436,0.3814767,0.34731692875,0.243851525,0.45443645,"both_direct_or_nearby","Historical & Cold War Era (1970–1999)"
1516,1997,"Labour 1997","exact",1997,"Labour Party","GB",0.540093913375,0.45312245,0.63004375,0.50597976425,0.44681665,0.566031675,"both_direct_or_nearby","Historical & Cold War Era (1970–1999)"
1567,1979,"Conservatives 1979","exact",1979,"Conservative Party","GB",0.863733304625,0.78370345,0.932120225,0.58421918175,0.47261405,0.691922375,"both_direct_or_nearby","Historical & Cold War Era (1970–1999)"
1567,2019,"Conservatives 2019","exact",2019,"Conservative Party","GB",0.734806347125,0.6674518,0.805338225,0.604817389125,0.5601045,0.6518521,"both_direct_or_nearby","Contemporary Era (2000–2022)"
487,1994,"Swedish SAP 1994","exact",1994,"Social Democratic Labour Party","SE",0.58329747225,0.45880465,0.706358175,0.323307833,0.22678185,0.42106565,"both_direct_or_nearby","Historical & Cold War Era (1970–1999)"
487,2022,"Swedish SAP 2022","exact",2022,"Social Democratic Labour Party","SE",0.271161611625,0.18001335,0.364595125,0.431600183875,0.333020475,0.530597425,"both_direct_or_nearby","Contemporary Era (2000–2022)"
409,2010,"Sweden Democrats 2010","exact",2010,"Sweden Democrats","SE",0.57402493025,0.47088145,0.681297275,0.721373298875,0.653960175,0.78768305,"both_direct_or_nearby","Contemporary Era (2000–2022)"
409,2022,"Sweden Democrats 2022","exact",2022,"Sweden Democrats","SE",0.609638368125,0.490017925,0.7238046,0.753425659,0.653108875,0.84672335,"both_direct_or_nearby","Contemporary Era (2000–2022)"
433,1988,"French FN 1988","exact",1988,"National Front","FR",0.78687783275,0.6924592,0.8758855,0.797982186375,0.7315981,0.86105335,"both_direct_or_nearby","Historical & Cold War Era (1970–1999)"
433,2022,"French FN 2022","exact",2022,"National Front","FR",0.524320955125,0.398589175,0.645052275,0.829604491,0.73907015,0.911430725,"both_direct_or_nearby","Contemporary Era (2000–2022)"
1545,2021,"The Left 2021","exact",2021,"The Left","DE",0.05463340125125,0.0205853625,0.104672875,0.2266517688,0.13204575,0.336095325,"both_direct_or_nearby","Contemporary Era (2000–2022)"
432,2020,"US Democrats 2020","exact",2020,"Democratic Party","US",0.299892256625,0.1963003,0.410606025,0.3345769065,0.263694925,0.405684575,"both_direct_or_nearby","Contemporary Era (2000–2022)"
809,2020,"US Republicans 2020","exact",2020,"Republican Party","US",0.8507495345,0.77742365,0.917357075,0.721311676375,0.65728435,0.78442835,"both_direct_or_nearby","Contemporary Era (2000–2022)"
1 party_id target_year label status actual_year party_name country economic_lr economic_lower economic_upper galtan galtan_lower galtan_upper source_support_class era
2 383 1972 SPD 1972 exact 1972 Social Democratic Party of Germany DE 0.271573270375 0.162936225 0.38761415 0.370199619125 0.2680677 0.473299475 both_direct_or_nearby Historical & Cold War Era (1970–1999)
3 383 2021 SPD 2021 exact 2021 Social Democratic Party of Germany DE 0.2363366825 0.148430575 0.330595375 0.36824540875 0.27656695 0.461600275 both_direct_or_nearby Contemporary Era (2000–2022)
4 1375 1983 CDU 1983 exact 1983 Christian Democratic Union DE 0.704186118875 0.559885375 0.832835125 0.6167079735 0.5088347 0.716463575 text_only_direct_or_nearby Historical & Cold War Era (1970–1999)
5 1375 2021 CDU 2021 exact 2021 Christian Democratic Union DE 0.57714137175 0.45681705 0.69505505 0.536185121875 0.433751725 0.636189175 text_only_direct_or_nearby Contemporary Era (2000–2022)
6 1516 1983 Labour 1983 exact 1983 Labour Party GB 0.259080600525 0.1453436 0.3814767 0.34731692875 0.243851525 0.45443645 both_direct_or_nearby Historical & Cold War Era (1970–1999)
7 1516 1997 Labour 1997 exact 1997 Labour Party GB 0.540093913375 0.45312245 0.63004375 0.50597976425 0.44681665 0.566031675 both_direct_or_nearby Historical & Cold War Era (1970–1999)
8 1567 1979 Conservatives 1979 exact 1979 Conservative Party GB 0.863733304625 0.78370345 0.932120225 0.58421918175 0.47261405 0.691922375 both_direct_or_nearby Historical & Cold War Era (1970–1999)
9 1567 2019 Conservatives 2019 exact 2019 Conservative Party GB 0.734806347125 0.6674518 0.805338225 0.604817389125 0.5601045 0.6518521 both_direct_or_nearby Contemporary Era (2000–2022)
10 487 1994 Swedish SAP 1994 exact 1994 Social Democratic Labour Party SE 0.58329747225 0.45880465 0.706358175 0.323307833 0.22678185 0.42106565 both_direct_or_nearby Historical & Cold War Era (1970–1999)
11 487 2022 Swedish SAP 2022 exact 2022 Social Democratic Labour Party SE 0.271161611625 0.18001335 0.364595125 0.431600183875 0.333020475 0.530597425 both_direct_or_nearby Contemporary Era (2000–2022)
12 409 2010 Sweden Democrats 2010 exact 2010 Sweden Democrats SE 0.57402493025 0.47088145 0.681297275 0.721373298875 0.653960175 0.78768305 both_direct_or_nearby Contemporary Era (2000–2022)
13 409 2022 Sweden Democrats 2022 exact 2022 Sweden Democrats SE 0.609638368125 0.490017925 0.7238046 0.753425659 0.653108875 0.84672335 both_direct_or_nearby Contemporary Era (2000–2022)
14 433 1988 French FN 1988 exact 1988 National Front FR 0.78687783275 0.6924592 0.8758855 0.797982186375 0.7315981 0.86105335 both_direct_or_nearby Historical & Cold War Era (1970–1999)
15 433 2022 French FN 2022 exact 2022 National Front FR 0.524320955125 0.398589175 0.645052275 0.829604491 0.73907015 0.911430725 both_direct_or_nearby Contemporary Era (2000–2022)
16 1545 2021 The Left 2021 exact 2021 The Left DE 0.05463340125125 0.0205853625 0.104672875 0.2266517688 0.13204575 0.336095325 both_direct_or_nearby Contemporary Era (2000–2022)
17 432 2020 US Democrats 2020 exact 2020 Democratic Party US 0.299892256625 0.1963003 0.410606025 0.3345769065 0.263694925 0.405684575 both_direct_or_nearby Contemporary Era (2000–2022)
18 809 2020 US Republicans 2020 exact 2020 Republican Party US 0.8507495345 0.77742365 0.917357075 0.721311676375 0.65728435 0.78442835 both_direct_or_nearby Contemporary Era (2000–2022)