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Publish party-position estimates and validation materials

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Armin Seimel
2026-08-13 15:26:21 +00:00
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dimension,group_type,group,n,parties,pearson_r,mae,rmse,bias_expert_minus_model,latent_interval_overlap_95,latent_interval_overlap_ci_lower,latent_interval_overlap_ci_upper,mean_interval_width,mean_nearest_text_distance
economic_lr,overall,All matched held-out ratings,1095,76,0.5475349609862943,0.15659217513079526,0.20393539783060147,-0.05532600480562651,0.5168949771689497,0.4872890521846218,0.5463827709425695,0.26430020129022835,0.16712328767123288
economic_lr,decade,1970s,118,23,0.6073768641760265,0.14287929777127256,0.19854739676618133,-0.10205433290640958,0.6101694915254238,0.5200255656951949,0.6933662479382441,0.25169848501186437,0.0
economic_lr,decade,2010s,354,57,0.5992779154544512,0.1501300890725984,0.1885321056791222,0.021169532897549623,0.5254237288135594,0.47341101610110464,0.57689056985201,0.26575748477902544,0.2740112994350282
economic_lr,decade,2000s,295,55,0.5565144172854626,0.15858892901808844,0.20126848038834502,-0.05233537589313869,0.4847457627118644,0.4282780233542677,0.5416056876150218,0.26056229448652546,0.17288135593220338
economic_lr,decade,1990s,208,50,0.6126480905939616,0.16338137608018816,0.21895575578982457,-0.125792230775093,0.5048076923076923,0.43739172918853736,0.5720492871179859,0.27198704433737986,0.15384615384615385
economic_lr,decade,1980s,108,20,0.4965786440080896,0.17854227265283956,0.23865365933045032,-0.1349662304081571,0.4722222222222222,0.38064769707967805,0.56570500173722,0.24913035199722225,0.0
economic_lr,decade,2020s,12,7,0.7503511986609598,0.11774978066574382,0.1393618688955034,0.0122078457365813,0.75,0.46768966087934005,0.9110599603710386,0.4404074548520834,0.25
economic_lr,region,Asia-Pacific,58,5,0.423328443816105,0.17092882695033917,0.20862210989480942,-0.0891987769436264,0.39655172413793105,0.28088568950111137,0.5250701719255011,0.24057815327112078,0.017241379310344827
economic_lr,region,Europe,893,59,0.5432249309980023,0.1511392922038456,0.20048220769183805,-0.04801670847392163,0.5397536394176932,0.5069623693775478,0.5722043418900828,0.2582198076309352,0.17245240761478164
economic_lr,region,North America,48,3,0.2266003540841267,0.19345335195896976,0.23606823520460213,-0.0729662252491865,0.3333333333333333,0.2167660137089678,0.47460153667527943,0.24118537241145843,0.0
economic_lr,region,Latin America,44,4,0.5475305121725508,0.233854863071928,0.26544986189092146,-0.22241677738442417,0.3409090909090909,0.21875632628639946,0.4886113202806049,0.3793346702613636,0.6363636363636364
economic_lr,region,Other,52,5,0.7564368993112075,0.13484224995906788,0.16103703074927944,0.014599836243402173,0.5769230769230769,0.4419408497943149,0.7013215209113954,0.3191783834884615,0.0
economic_lr,text_distance_class,direct text,971,74,0.5470435275586387,0.15948847158646431,0.20840482347744635,-0.06628643977796411,0.505664263645726,0.47425628054953844,0.537027603929745,0.2590549584609939,0.0
economic_lr,text_distance_class,nearby text (1--3 years),124,41,0.6274910136969545,0.1339123053045472,0.16479794566578806,0.030501272276146137,0.6048387096774194,0.5168822918241138,0.686494386815703,0.3053738366707661,1.4758064516129032
economic_lr,project,V-Party,914,70,0.5307923250620764,0.1655176264187938,0.21441603701361558,-0.07700198607575016,0.4890590809628009,0.45676497600150245,0.5214447717371051,0.2606530705033918,0.0437636761487965
economic_lr,project,GPS,26,26,0.6972897756799338,0.13173814981538515,0.16398882896345623,0.04775018790861701,0.5,0.32060306315002074,0.6793969368499793,0.28959384095,0.8076923076923077
economic_lr,project,CHES,129,31,0.8041829585092515,0.10700941979056187,0.13157526424371663,0.044641159665681336,0.6821705426356589,0.5975442490042815,0.7562605832169504,0.2815578695228682,0.7829457364341085
economic_lr,project,POPPA,26,21,0.8377220415965767,0.11368900666387213,0.15035280874886425,0.10760098186837214,0.6923076923076923,0.5001138848576876,0.8349887906020732,0.2815926515211539,0.8076923076923077
economic_lr,item,lrecon_vparty,457,70,0.6526133931659629,0.12080138892236934,0.1567424568814474,-0.02190935296123517,0.6148796498905909,0.5694819726873812,0.6583620413946809,0.2606530705033917,0.0437636761487965
economic_lr,item,welf_vparty,457,70,0.4769148611627237,0.21023386391521848,0.2595771100617617,-0.13209461919026505,0.36323851203501095,0.32045365106651325,0.40830347502626996,0.2606530705033917,0.0437636761487965
economic_lr,item,lrecon_gps,26,26,0.6972897756799338,0.13173814981538515,0.16398882896345623,0.04775018790861701,0.5,0.32060306315002074,0.6793969368499793,0.28959384095,0.8076923076923077
economic_lr,item,lrecon_ches,129,31,0.8041829585092515,0.10700941979056187,0.13157526424371663,0.044641159665681336,0.6821705426356589,0.5975442490042815,0.7562605832169504,0.2815578695228682,0.7829457364341085
economic_lr,item,lrecon_poppa,26,21,0.8377220415965767,0.11368900666387213,0.15035280874886425,0.10760098186837214,0.6923076923076923,0.5001138848576876,0.8349887906020732,0.2815926515211539,0.8076923076923077
galtan,overall,All matched held-out ratings,2428,76,0.3879064541660041,0.18914006264912334,0.23816373704876254,-0.013710351768187365,0.4126853377265239,0.39325537210953215,0.4323911667110884,0.258665849890383,0.0914332784184514
galtan,decade,1970s,287,23,0.2402564326635899,0.21665443860032066,0.25724972613838026,0.0744907055227787,0.3344947735191638,0.2824119799338199,0.3909497399852015,0.26474203940810126,0.0
galtan,decade,2010s,693,57,0.4606647139522965,0.1935411541181932,0.24590414523794452,-0.050660741407812654,0.3838383838383838,0.3483644977339694,0.4205930386702865,0.24824147265028856,0.12265512265512266
galtan,decade,2000s,676,55,0.3870265819854018,0.18629380051270433,0.23690167706252432,-0.0468645901306479,0.4275147928994083,0.39073352449867466,0.4651152496863708,0.258417938360392,0.11538461538461539
galtan,decade,1990s,499,50,0.41212741006828396,0.17126387793509984,0.2212178226996366,-0.019602997434269034,0.48897795591182364,0.4453697785277533,0.5327545453149837,0.26606359520380773,0.11823647294589178
galtan,decade,1980s,266,20,0.3476988123327735,0.18921982830486436,0.2308346130602219,0.08154082475673356,0.37969924812030076,0.3234807111340447,0.4393431084697526,0.2599239549642858,0.0
galtan,decade,2020s,7,5,0.6324675234649824,0.17149569493926073,0.20386312323528286,0.030403782877832106,0.8571428571428571,0.48686549668097007,0.9743210440510253,0.49033504546428575,0.0
galtan,region,Asia-Pacific,142,5,-0.06990999699587813,0.2028535844559974,0.2421448847066388,-0.04764709776122232,0.43661971830985913,0.3577770958258817,0.5188013289856945,0.31393695714260567,0.007042253521126761
galtan,region,Europe,1938,59,0.4006536844413476,0.18821986618869885,0.2391185533726696,-0.007048457123688323,0.4107327141382869,0.3890267037664939,0.4327919244882515,0.24984948892156866,0.07791537667698659
galtan,region,North America,117,3,0.15158098770839884,0.2020264962636105,0.24484307272242728,0.04760720430768876,0.2905982905982906,0.21602760266916315,0.37848289702630594,0.23609932028311967,0.0
galtan,region,Latin America,110,4,0.510877747351673,0.15390455215418858,0.19797883572628092,-0.07917475272712499,0.6272727272727273,0.5340503169531756,0.7119054672241376,0.3662500658409092,0.6363636363636364
galtan,region,Other,121,5,0.3370413394210674,0.20735670781668103,0.24493355112293227,-0.08036162321796078,0.33884297520661155,0.2606254540535898,0.4269786779024248,0.25902643284276866,0.0
galtan,text_distance_class,direct text,2293,74,0.3817373914639877,0.1904499145514716,0.23993647489228756,-0.014524078018235874,0.404709986916703,0.38479506099767413,0.42494366891735347,0.25436052910535323,0.0
galtan,text_distance_class,nearby text (1--3 years),135,40,0.4399561874640988,0.16689198552257195,0.20573340547684066,0.00011093927893245328,0.5481481481481482,0.46402181812792126,0.6296100616545071,0.3317925207057409,1.6444444444444444
galtan,project,V-Party,2273,70,0.3740693791970041,0.1911074338064693,0.24060334153635682,-0.018396438536216624,0.4047514298284206,0.3847495239974894,0.4250747518765987,0.2566477345279916,0.04399472063352398
galtan,project,GPS,26,26,0.5443693144157825,0.17671657291477977,0.21780593561007713,0.012007051328791764,0.46153846153846156,0.28755582695234905,0.6454236379556988,0.2777555471798077,0.8076923076923077
galtan,project,CHES,129,31,0.5869373239223193,0.15697863700916778,0.19496790336712624,0.06367587104738649,0.5426356589147286,0.456675986048851,0.6261294002156924,0.2903778195740311,0.7829457364341085
galtan,item,culsup_vparty,457,70,0.5366188718286774,0.16311644869435024,0.21359963974416982,0.011168223905568687,0.4638949671772429,0.418663126356892,0.5097287549316027,0.25691081806515326,0.0437636761487965
galtan,item,gender_vparty,445,70,0.32459509946925547,0.2164337137525867,0.2608755427368426,0.12306040878157333,0.34606741573033706,0.3033546905138159,0.39141513474302303,0.25556702282926974,0.0449438202247191
galtan,item,immig_vparty,457,70,0.5004863614572931,0.13311846254318913,0.16732357853899973,-0.011445561652418225,0.5776805251641138,0.5319316389137728,0.6221343134655263,0.25691081806515326,0.0437636761487965
galtan,item,lgbt_vparty,457,70,0.46354086621523605,0.15471230984590562,0.18981764808744647,0.04310285191432138,0.474835886214442,0.42945203114163966,0.5206392800594324,0.25691081806515326,0.0437636761487965
galtan,item,relig_vparty,457,70,0.4185372751933906,0.288821256864484,0.33467597534992094,-0.25415371263710096,0.15973741794310722,0.12900420700742332,0.19614352271142144,0.25691081806515326,0.0437636761487965
galtan,item,libcon_gps,26,26,0.5443693144157825,0.17671657291477977,0.21780593561007713,0.012007051328791764,0.46153846153846156,0.28755582695234905,0.6454236379556988,0.2777555471798077,0.8076923076923077
galtan,item,galtan_ches,129,31,0.5869373239223193,0.15697863700916778,0.19496790336712624,0.06367587104738649,0.5426356589147286,0.456675986048851,0.6261294002156924,0.2903778195740311,0.7829457364341085
1 dimension group_type group n parties pearson_r mae rmse bias_expert_minus_model latent_interval_overlap_95 latent_interval_overlap_ci_lower latent_interval_overlap_ci_upper mean_interval_width mean_nearest_text_distance
2 economic_lr overall All matched held-out ratings 1095 76 0.5475349609862943 0.15659217513079526 0.20393539783060147 -0.05532600480562651 0.5168949771689497 0.4872890521846218 0.5463827709425695 0.26430020129022835 0.16712328767123288
3 economic_lr decade 1970s 118 23 0.6073768641760265 0.14287929777127256 0.19854739676618133 -0.10205433290640958 0.6101694915254238 0.5200255656951949 0.6933662479382441 0.25169848501186437 0.0
4 economic_lr decade 2010s 354 57 0.5992779154544512 0.1501300890725984 0.1885321056791222 0.021169532897549623 0.5254237288135594 0.47341101610110464 0.57689056985201 0.26575748477902544 0.2740112994350282
5 economic_lr decade 2000s 295 55 0.5565144172854626 0.15858892901808844 0.20126848038834502 -0.05233537589313869 0.4847457627118644 0.4282780233542677 0.5416056876150218 0.26056229448652546 0.17288135593220338
6 economic_lr decade 1990s 208 50 0.6126480905939616 0.16338137608018816 0.21895575578982457 -0.125792230775093 0.5048076923076923 0.43739172918853736 0.5720492871179859 0.27198704433737986 0.15384615384615385
7 economic_lr decade 1980s 108 20 0.4965786440080896 0.17854227265283956 0.23865365933045032 -0.1349662304081571 0.4722222222222222 0.38064769707967805 0.56570500173722 0.24913035199722225 0.0
8 economic_lr decade 2020s 12 7 0.7503511986609598 0.11774978066574382 0.1393618688955034 0.0122078457365813 0.75 0.46768966087934005 0.9110599603710386 0.4404074548520834 0.25
9 economic_lr region Asia-Pacific 58 5 0.423328443816105 0.17092882695033917 0.20862210989480942 -0.0891987769436264 0.39655172413793105 0.28088568950111137 0.5250701719255011 0.24057815327112078 0.017241379310344827
10 economic_lr region Europe 893 59 0.5432249309980023 0.1511392922038456 0.20048220769183805 -0.04801670847392163 0.5397536394176932 0.5069623693775478 0.5722043418900828 0.2582198076309352 0.17245240761478164
11 economic_lr region North America 48 3 0.2266003540841267 0.19345335195896976 0.23606823520460213 -0.0729662252491865 0.3333333333333333 0.2167660137089678 0.47460153667527943 0.24118537241145843 0.0
12 economic_lr region Latin America 44 4 0.5475305121725508 0.233854863071928 0.26544986189092146 -0.22241677738442417 0.3409090909090909 0.21875632628639946 0.4886113202806049 0.3793346702613636 0.6363636363636364
13 economic_lr region Other 52 5 0.7564368993112075 0.13484224995906788 0.16103703074927944 0.014599836243402173 0.5769230769230769 0.4419408497943149 0.7013215209113954 0.3191783834884615 0.0
14 economic_lr text_distance_class direct text 971 74 0.5470435275586387 0.15948847158646431 0.20840482347744635 -0.06628643977796411 0.505664263645726 0.47425628054953844 0.537027603929745 0.2590549584609939 0.0
15 economic_lr text_distance_class nearby text (1--3 years) 124 41 0.6274910136969545 0.1339123053045472 0.16479794566578806 0.030501272276146137 0.6048387096774194 0.5168822918241138 0.686494386815703 0.3053738366707661 1.4758064516129032
16 economic_lr project V-Party 914 70 0.5307923250620764 0.1655176264187938 0.21441603701361558 -0.07700198607575016 0.4890590809628009 0.45676497600150245 0.5214447717371051 0.2606530705033918 0.0437636761487965
17 economic_lr project GPS 26 26 0.6972897756799338 0.13173814981538515 0.16398882896345623 0.04775018790861701 0.5 0.32060306315002074 0.6793969368499793 0.28959384095 0.8076923076923077
18 economic_lr project CHES 129 31 0.8041829585092515 0.10700941979056187 0.13157526424371663 0.044641159665681336 0.6821705426356589 0.5975442490042815 0.7562605832169504 0.2815578695228682 0.7829457364341085
19 economic_lr project POPPA 26 21 0.8377220415965767 0.11368900666387213 0.15035280874886425 0.10760098186837214 0.6923076923076923 0.5001138848576876 0.8349887906020732 0.2815926515211539 0.8076923076923077
20 economic_lr item lrecon_vparty 457 70 0.6526133931659629 0.12080138892236934 0.1567424568814474 -0.02190935296123517 0.6148796498905909 0.5694819726873812 0.6583620413946809 0.2606530705033917 0.0437636761487965
21 economic_lr item welf_vparty 457 70 0.4769148611627237 0.21023386391521848 0.2595771100617617 -0.13209461919026505 0.36323851203501095 0.32045365106651325 0.40830347502626996 0.2606530705033917 0.0437636761487965
22 economic_lr item lrecon_gps 26 26 0.6972897756799338 0.13173814981538515 0.16398882896345623 0.04775018790861701 0.5 0.32060306315002074 0.6793969368499793 0.28959384095 0.8076923076923077
23 economic_lr item lrecon_ches 129 31 0.8041829585092515 0.10700941979056187 0.13157526424371663 0.044641159665681336 0.6821705426356589 0.5975442490042815 0.7562605832169504 0.2815578695228682 0.7829457364341085
24 economic_lr item lrecon_poppa 26 21 0.8377220415965767 0.11368900666387213 0.15035280874886425 0.10760098186837214 0.6923076923076923 0.5001138848576876 0.8349887906020732 0.2815926515211539 0.8076923076923077
25 galtan overall All matched held-out ratings 2428 76 0.3879064541660041 0.18914006264912334 0.23816373704876254 -0.013710351768187365 0.4126853377265239 0.39325537210953215 0.4323911667110884 0.258665849890383 0.0914332784184514
26 galtan decade 1970s 287 23 0.2402564326635899 0.21665443860032066 0.25724972613838026 0.0744907055227787 0.3344947735191638 0.2824119799338199 0.3909497399852015 0.26474203940810126 0.0
27 galtan decade 2010s 693 57 0.4606647139522965 0.1935411541181932 0.24590414523794452 -0.050660741407812654 0.3838383838383838 0.3483644977339694 0.4205930386702865 0.24824147265028856 0.12265512265512266
28 galtan decade 2000s 676 55 0.3870265819854018 0.18629380051270433 0.23690167706252432 -0.0468645901306479 0.4275147928994083 0.39073352449867466 0.4651152496863708 0.258417938360392 0.11538461538461539
29 galtan decade 1990s 499 50 0.41212741006828396 0.17126387793509984 0.2212178226996366 -0.019602997434269034 0.48897795591182364 0.4453697785277533 0.5327545453149837 0.26606359520380773 0.11823647294589178
30 galtan decade 1980s 266 20 0.3476988123327735 0.18921982830486436 0.2308346130602219 0.08154082475673356 0.37969924812030076 0.3234807111340447 0.4393431084697526 0.2599239549642858 0.0
31 galtan decade 2020s 7 5 0.6324675234649824 0.17149569493926073 0.20386312323528286 0.030403782877832106 0.8571428571428571 0.48686549668097007 0.9743210440510253 0.49033504546428575 0.0
32 galtan region Asia-Pacific 142 5 -0.06990999699587813 0.2028535844559974 0.2421448847066388 -0.04764709776122232 0.43661971830985913 0.3577770958258817 0.5188013289856945 0.31393695714260567 0.007042253521126761
33 galtan region Europe 1938 59 0.4006536844413476 0.18821986618869885 0.2391185533726696 -0.007048457123688323 0.4107327141382869 0.3890267037664939 0.4327919244882515 0.24984948892156866 0.07791537667698659
34 galtan region North America 117 3 0.15158098770839884 0.2020264962636105 0.24484307272242728 0.04760720430768876 0.2905982905982906 0.21602760266916315 0.37848289702630594 0.23609932028311967 0.0
35 galtan region Latin America 110 4 0.510877747351673 0.15390455215418858 0.19797883572628092 -0.07917475272712499 0.6272727272727273 0.5340503169531756 0.7119054672241376 0.3662500658409092 0.6363636363636364
36 galtan region Other 121 5 0.3370413394210674 0.20735670781668103 0.24493355112293227 -0.08036162321796078 0.33884297520661155 0.2606254540535898 0.4269786779024248 0.25902643284276866 0.0
37 galtan text_distance_class direct text 2293 74 0.3817373914639877 0.1904499145514716 0.23993647489228756 -0.014524078018235874 0.404709986916703 0.38479506099767413 0.42494366891735347 0.25436052910535323 0.0
38 galtan text_distance_class nearby text (1--3 years) 135 40 0.4399561874640988 0.16689198552257195 0.20573340547684066 0.00011093927893245328 0.5481481481481482 0.46402181812792126 0.6296100616545071 0.3317925207057409 1.6444444444444444
39 galtan project V-Party 2273 70 0.3740693791970041 0.1911074338064693 0.24060334153635682 -0.018396438536216624 0.4047514298284206 0.3847495239974894 0.4250747518765987 0.2566477345279916 0.04399472063352398
40 galtan project GPS 26 26 0.5443693144157825 0.17671657291477977 0.21780593561007713 0.012007051328791764 0.46153846153846156 0.28755582695234905 0.6454236379556988 0.2777555471798077 0.8076923076923077
41 galtan project CHES 129 31 0.5869373239223193 0.15697863700916778 0.19496790336712624 0.06367587104738649 0.5426356589147286 0.456675986048851 0.6261294002156924 0.2903778195740311 0.7829457364341085
42 galtan item culsup_vparty 457 70 0.5366188718286774 0.16311644869435024 0.21359963974416982 0.011168223905568687 0.4638949671772429 0.418663126356892 0.5097287549316027 0.25691081806515326 0.0437636761487965
43 galtan item gender_vparty 445 70 0.32459509946925547 0.2164337137525867 0.2608755427368426 0.12306040878157333 0.34606741573033706 0.3033546905138159 0.39141513474302303 0.25556702282926974 0.0449438202247191
44 galtan item immig_vparty 457 70 0.5004863614572931 0.13311846254318913 0.16732357853899973 -0.011445561652418225 0.5776805251641138 0.5319316389137728 0.6221343134655263 0.25691081806515326 0.0437636761487965
45 galtan item lgbt_vparty 457 70 0.46354086621523605 0.15471230984590562 0.18981764808744647 0.04310285191432138 0.474835886214442 0.42945203114163966 0.5206392800594324 0.25691081806515326 0.0437636761487965
46 galtan item relig_vparty 457 70 0.4185372751933906 0.288821256864484 0.33467597534992094 -0.25415371263710096 0.15973741794310722 0.12900420700742332 0.19614352271142144 0.25691081806515326 0.0437636761487965
47 galtan item libcon_gps 26 26 0.5443693144157825 0.17671657291477977 0.21780593561007713 0.012007051328791764 0.46153846153846156 0.28755582695234905 0.6454236379556988 0.2777555471798077 0.8076923076923077
48 galtan item galtan_ches 129 31 0.5869373239223193 0.15697863700916778 0.19496790336712624 0.06367587104738649 0.5426356589147286 0.456675986048851 0.6261294002156924 0.2903778195740311 0.7829457364341085