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Publish party-position estimates and validation materials

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Armin Seimel
2026-08-13 15:26:21 +00:00
commit 7666224565
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validation/outputs/blocked_fit_diagnostics/blocked_parties.csv
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party_id,country,region,first_expert_year,last_expert_year,expert_period,text_years,expert_rows,lr_rows,stratum,selected
42,HU,Europe,2010,2024,2010s,3,33,6,Europe / 2010s,true
96,SI,Europe,1992,2019,1990s,7,31,4,Europe / 1990s,true
172,NL,Europe,1999,1999,1990s,5,2,1,Europe / 1990s,true
216,MX,Latin America,1991,2020,1990s,8,74,1,Latin America / 1990s,true
232,CA,North America,1972,2000,pre-1990,18,63,0,North America / pre-1990,true
237,LT,Europe,2004,2019,2000s,4,36,4,Europe / 2000s,true
281,BE,Europe,1971,1974,pre-1990,6,14,2,Europe / pre-1990,true
284,PT,Europe,1987,2024,pre-1990,9,88,9,Europe / pre-1990,true
292,BA,Europe,2002,2019,2000s,6,37,0,Europe / 2000s,true
298,NL,Europe,2006,2024,2000s,5,42,7,Europe / 2000s,true
306,TR,Europe,2002,2024,2000s,5,32,1,Europe / 2000s,true
363,IS,Europe,1971,2024,pre-1990,23,103,9,Europe / pre-1990,true
441,ES,Europe,1977,2024,pre-1990,15,116,9,Europe / pre-1990,true
447,IL,Other,2021,2022,2020s,4,4,2,Other / 2020s,true
466,CZ,Europe,1992,2024,1990s,8,72,8,Europe / 1990s,true
472,SI,Europe,1990,2024,1990s,9,72,8,Europe / 1990s,true
487,SE,Europe,1970,2024,pre-1990,24,123,18,Europe / pre-1990,true
500,BE,Europe,1978,2024,pre-1990,12,102,9,Europe / pre-1990,true
537,BA,Europe,1998,2019,1990s,8,51,0,Europe / 1990s,true
557,IL,Other,1999,2003,1990s,3,14,0,Other / 1990s,true
633,BE,Europe,1971,2024,pre-1990,16,114,9,Europe / pre-1990,true
705,NO,Europe,1973,2024,pre-1990,19,90,11,Europe / pre-1990,true
714,NL,Europe,2014,2023,2010s,3,8,4,Europe / 2010s,true
848,ES,Europe,1999,2024,1990s,15,56,8,Europe / 1990s,true
910,HU,Europe,1990,2010,1990s,5,41,3,Europe / 1990s,true
934,IT,Europe,1972,1992,pre-1990,14,42,7,Europe / pre-1990,true
946,ES,Europe,1999,1999,1990s,6,2,1,Europe / 1990s,true
950,EC,Latin America,1979,2019,pre-1990,4,100,0,Latin America / pre-1990,true
953,IL,Other,2003,2022,2000s,4,18,2,Other / 2000s,true
986,GB,Europe,1999,2024,1990s,7,25,9,Europe / 1990s,true
1004,CA,North America,2004,2023,2000s,7,46,1,North America / 2000s,true
1036,IL,Other,1973,2022,pre-1990,17,104,2,Other / pre-1990,true
1055,IE,Europe,1973,2024,pre-1990,20,102,9,Europe / pre-1990,true
1060,TR,Europe,1973,2024,pre-1990,15,67,1,Europe / pre-1990,true
1072,NO,Europe,1973,2024,pre-1990,19,88,11,Europe / pre-1990,true
1096,FI,Europe,1970,1987,pre-1990,13,42,9,Europe / pre-1990,true
1123,CH,Europe,2023,2024,2020s,13,3,2,Europe / 2020s,true
1126,IT,Europe,1972,2006,pre-1990,10,11,7,Europe / pre-1990,true
1138,LU,Europe,1984,2023,pre-1990,7,48,3,Europe / pre-1990,true
1157,NL,Europe,1977,2024,pre-1990,14,109,9,Europe / pre-1990,true
1166,BA,Europe,1996,2014,1990s,10,49,0,Europe / 1990s,true
1219,ZA,Other,1994,2019,1990s,6,44,0,Other / 1990s,true
1241,MX,Latin America,2019,2020,2010s,7,4,1,Latin America / 2010s,true
1242,SK,Europe,1994,1998,1990s,4,14,0,Europe / 1990s,true
1249,IS,Europe,1971,1995,pre-1990,15,50,8,Europe / pre-1990,true
1274,SE,Europe,1970,2024,pre-1990,24,114,18,Europe / pre-1990,true
1331,MX,Latin America,2006,2020,2000s,5,25,1,Latin America / 2000s,true
1359,PT,Europe,1975,2024,pre-1990,18,114,9,Europe / pre-1990,true
1386,SK,Europe,2010,2024,2010s,3,33,6,Europe / 2010s,true
1388,GB,Europe,1999,2024,1990s,9,32,9,Europe / 1990s,true
1415,CH,Europe,2011,2011,2010s,3,7,0,Europe / 2010s,true
1428,CA,North America,1993,2023,1990s,10,60,1,North America / 1990s,true
1431,HR,Europe,1992,2024,1990s,9,59,5,Europe / 1990s,true
1450,EC,Latin America,1984,2009,pre-1990,3,84,0,Latin America / pre-1990,true
1454,BA,Europe,1996,2019,1990s,9,51,0,Europe / 1990s,true
1459,NL,Europe,2002,2024,2000s,7,16,8,Europe / 2000s,true
1467,NL,Europe,2010,2024,2010s,5,12,6,Europe / 2010s,true
1508,MK,Europe,1998,2019,1990s,9,44,0,Europe / 1990s,true
1540,AU,Asia-Pacific,1972,1972,pre-1990,10,7,0,Asia-Pacific / pre-1990,true
1567,GB,Europe,1970,2024,pre-1990,22,109,9,Europe / pre-1990,true
1665,BG,Europe,1991,2024,1990s,8,75,6,Europe / 1990s,true
1673,BA,Europe,2000,2019,2000s,5,16,0,Europe / 2000s,true
1691,HU,Europe,1990,2024,1990s,9,70,8,Europe / 1990s,true
1715,RO,Europe,1990,2014,1990s,7,43,4,Europe / 1990s,true
1759,CH,Europe,2011,2024,2010s,4,18,3,Europe / 2010s,true
1804,JP,Asia-Pacific,1996,2014,1990s,7,49,0,Asia-Pacific / 1990s,true
1808,CH,Europe,1971,2024,pre-1990,19,95,1,Europe / pre-1990,true
1824,NZ,Asia-Pacific,1972,2019,pre-1990,26,114,0,Asia-Pacific / pre-1990,true
2159,GE,Europe,1999,1999,1990s,3,7,0,Europe / 1990s,true
2168,GE,Europe,1995,2003,1990s,3,21,0,Europe / 1990s,true
2203,RS,Europe,2000,2000,2000s,6,7,0,Europe / 2000s,true
2211,UA,Europe,1998,2006,1990s,5,21,0,Europe / 1990s,true
2228,UA,Europe,2002,2012,2000s,3,28,0,Europe / 2000s,true
2235,RU,Europe,1993,1993,1990s,3,7,0,Europe / 1990s,true
2256,RU,Europe,2003,2019,2000s,3,30,0,Europe / 2000s,true
2307,KR,Asia-Pacific,2000,2012,2000s,5,28,0,Asia-Pacific / 2000s,true
3162,ME,Europe,1998,2019,1990s,8,51,0,Europe / 1990s,true
3171,BA,Europe,2010,2019,2010s,3,23,0,Europe / 2010s,true
3185,ME,Europe,1998,2016,1990s,5,49,0,Europe / 1990s,true
3916,CO,Latin America,2020,2020,2020s,4,2,1,Latin America / 2020s,true
3955,IL,Other,2019,2019,2010s,4,7,0,Other / 2010s,true
5453,AU,Asia-Pacific,2019,2019,2010s,3,2,0,Asia-Pacific / 2010s,true
1 party_id country region first_expert_year last_expert_year expert_period text_years expert_rows lr_rows stratum selected
2 42 HU Europe 2010 2024 2010s 3 33 6 Europe / 2010s true
3 96 SI Europe 1992 2019 1990s 7 31 4 Europe / 1990s true
4 172 NL Europe 1999 1999 1990s 5 2 1 Europe / 1990s true
5 216 MX Latin America 1991 2020 1990s 8 74 1 Latin America / 1990s true
6 232 CA North America 1972 2000 pre-1990 18 63 0 North America / pre-1990 true
7 237 LT Europe 2004 2019 2000s 4 36 4 Europe / 2000s true
8 281 BE Europe 1971 1974 pre-1990 6 14 2 Europe / pre-1990 true
9 284 PT Europe 1987 2024 pre-1990 9 88 9 Europe / pre-1990 true
10 292 BA Europe 2002 2019 2000s 6 37 0 Europe / 2000s true
11 298 NL Europe 2006 2024 2000s 5 42 7 Europe / 2000s true
12 306 TR Europe 2002 2024 2000s 5 32 1 Europe / 2000s true
13 363 IS Europe 1971 2024 pre-1990 23 103 9 Europe / pre-1990 true
14 441 ES Europe 1977 2024 pre-1990 15 116 9 Europe / pre-1990 true
15 447 IL Other 2021 2022 2020s 4 4 2 Other / 2020s true
16 466 CZ Europe 1992 2024 1990s 8 72 8 Europe / 1990s true
17 472 SI Europe 1990 2024 1990s 9 72 8 Europe / 1990s true
18 487 SE Europe 1970 2024 pre-1990 24 123 18 Europe / pre-1990 true
19 500 BE Europe 1978 2024 pre-1990 12 102 9 Europe / pre-1990 true
20 537 BA Europe 1998 2019 1990s 8 51 0 Europe / 1990s true
21 557 IL Other 1999 2003 1990s 3 14 0 Other / 1990s true
22 633 BE Europe 1971 2024 pre-1990 16 114 9 Europe / pre-1990 true
23 705 NO Europe 1973 2024 pre-1990 19 90 11 Europe / pre-1990 true
24 714 NL Europe 2014 2023 2010s 3 8 4 Europe / 2010s true
25 848 ES Europe 1999 2024 1990s 15 56 8 Europe / 1990s true
26 910 HU Europe 1990 2010 1990s 5 41 3 Europe / 1990s true
27 934 IT Europe 1972 1992 pre-1990 14 42 7 Europe / pre-1990 true
28 946 ES Europe 1999 1999 1990s 6 2 1 Europe / 1990s true
29 950 EC Latin America 1979 2019 pre-1990 4 100 0 Latin America / pre-1990 true
30 953 IL Other 2003 2022 2000s 4 18 2 Other / 2000s true
31 986 GB Europe 1999 2024 1990s 7 25 9 Europe / 1990s true
32 1004 CA North America 2004 2023 2000s 7 46 1 North America / 2000s true
33 1036 IL Other 1973 2022 pre-1990 17 104 2 Other / pre-1990 true
34 1055 IE Europe 1973 2024 pre-1990 20 102 9 Europe / pre-1990 true
35 1060 TR Europe 1973 2024 pre-1990 15 67 1 Europe / pre-1990 true
36 1072 NO Europe 1973 2024 pre-1990 19 88 11 Europe / pre-1990 true
37 1096 FI Europe 1970 1987 pre-1990 13 42 9 Europe / pre-1990 true
38 1123 CH Europe 2023 2024 2020s 13 3 2 Europe / 2020s true
39 1126 IT Europe 1972 2006 pre-1990 10 11 7 Europe / pre-1990 true
40 1138 LU Europe 1984 2023 pre-1990 7 48 3 Europe / pre-1990 true
41 1157 NL Europe 1977 2024 pre-1990 14 109 9 Europe / pre-1990 true
42 1166 BA Europe 1996 2014 1990s 10 49 0 Europe / 1990s true
43 1219 ZA Other 1994 2019 1990s 6 44 0 Other / 1990s true
44 1241 MX Latin America 2019 2020 2010s 7 4 1 Latin America / 2010s true
45 1242 SK Europe 1994 1998 1990s 4 14 0 Europe / 1990s true
46 1249 IS Europe 1971 1995 pre-1990 15 50 8 Europe / pre-1990 true
47 1274 SE Europe 1970 2024 pre-1990 24 114 18 Europe / pre-1990 true
48 1331 MX Latin America 2006 2020 2000s 5 25 1 Latin America / 2000s true
49 1359 PT Europe 1975 2024 pre-1990 18 114 9 Europe / pre-1990 true
50 1386 SK Europe 2010 2024 2010s 3 33 6 Europe / 2010s true
51 1388 GB Europe 1999 2024 1990s 9 32 9 Europe / 1990s true
52 1415 CH Europe 2011 2011 2010s 3 7 0 Europe / 2010s true
53 1428 CA North America 1993 2023 1990s 10 60 1 North America / 1990s true
54 1431 HR Europe 1992 2024 1990s 9 59 5 Europe / 1990s true
55 1450 EC Latin America 1984 2009 pre-1990 3 84 0 Latin America / pre-1990 true
56 1454 BA Europe 1996 2019 1990s 9 51 0 Europe / 1990s true
57 1459 NL Europe 2002 2024 2000s 7 16 8 Europe / 2000s true
58 1467 NL Europe 2010 2024 2010s 5 12 6 Europe / 2010s true
59 1508 MK Europe 1998 2019 1990s 9 44 0 Europe / 1990s true
60 1540 AU Asia-Pacific 1972 1972 pre-1990 10 7 0 Asia-Pacific / pre-1990 true
61 1567 GB Europe 1970 2024 pre-1990 22 109 9 Europe / pre-1990 true
62 1665 BG Europe 1991 2024 1990s 8 75 6 Europe / 1990s true
63 1673 BA Europe 2000 2019 2000s 5 16 0 Europe / 2000s true
64 1691 HU Europe 1990 2024 1990s 9 70 8 Europe / 1990s true
65 1715 RO Europe 1990 2014 1990s 7 43 4 Europe / 1990s true
66 1759 CH Europe 2011 2024 2010s 4 18 3 Europe / 2010s true
67 1804 JP Asia-Pacific 1996 2014 1990s 7 49 0 Asia-Pacific / 1990s true
68 1808 CH Europe 1971 2024 pre-1990 19 95 1 Europe / pre-1990 true
69 1824 NZ Asia-Pacific 1972 2019 pre-1990 26 114 0 Asia-Pacific / pre-1990 true
70 2159 GE Europe 1999 1999 1990s 3 7 0 Europe / 1990s true
71 2168 GE Europe 1995 2003 1990s 3 21 0 Europe / 1990s true
72 2203 RS Europe 2000 2000 2000s 6 7 0 Europe / 2000s true
73 2211 UA Europe 1998 2006 1990s 5 21 0 Europe / 1990s true
74 2228 UA Europe 2002 2012 2000s 3 28 0 Europe / 2000s true
75 2235 RU Europe 1993 1993 1990s 3 7 0 Europe / 1990s true
76 2256 RU Europe 2003 2019 2000s 3 30 0 Europe / 2000s true
77 2307 KR Asia-Pacific 2000 2012 2000s 5 28 0 Asia-Pacific / 2000s true
78 3162 ME Europe 1998 2019 1990s 8 51 0 Europe / 1990s true
79 3171 BA Europe 2010 2019 2010s 3 23 0 Europe / 2010s true
80 3185 ME Europe 1998 2016 1990s 5 49 0 Europe / 1990s true
81 3916 CO Latin America 2020 2020 2020s 4 2 1 Latin America / 2020s true
82 3955 IL Other 2019 2019 2010s 4 7 0 Other / 2010s true
83 5453 AU Asia-Pacific 2019 2019 2010s 3 2 0 Asia-Pacific / 2010s true
validation/outputs/blocked_fit_diagnostics/blocked_validation_manifest.csv
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field,value
created_at,2026-08-12T17:24:30.781
seed,20260812
holdout_share,0.2
eligible_parties,388
blocked_parties,82
text_rows_train,38202
expert_rows_train,21162
expert_rows_test,3916
lr_rows_train,1897
lr_rows_test,310
text_sha256,8ba73dc9d378037333cc4ef1629d59350237f911b4fcd3dfd319cefb4769e23a
expert_full_sha256,30b53244055c18ae480197cfde4cdd86f30e0c9bd5af60d371caa5647b2a362a
lr_full_sha256,66912cc39d63b4bf63506220268e2eee2d5d94fc9c8b861eb0e25d7e79f492d2
union_mapping_sha256,3861d65e279458e339a220df6040c98f0f5237476065d01c855e38ad2164fe5c
1 field value
2 created_at 2026-08-12T17:24:30.781
3 seed 20260812
4 holdout_share 0.2
5 eligible_parties 388
6 blocked_parties 82
7 text_rows_train 38202
8 expert_rows_train 21162
9 expert_rows_test 3916
10 lr_rows_train 1897
11 lr_rows_test 310
12 text_sha256 8ba73dc9d378037333cc4ef1629d59350237f911b4fcd3dfd319cefb4769e23a
13 expert_full_sha256 30b53244055c18ae480197cfde4cdd86f30e0c9bd5af60d371caa5647b2a362a
14 lr_full_sha256 66912cc39d63b4bf63506220268e2eee2d5d94fc9c8b861eb0e25d7e79f492d2
15 union_mapping_sha256 3861d65e279458e339a220df6040c98f0f5237476065d01c855e38ad2164fe5c
validation/outputs/blocked_fit_diagnostics/blocked_validation_strata.csv
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stratum,eligible_parties,blocked_parties
Asia-Pacific / pre-1990,12,2
Europe / 1990s,121,24
Europe / pre-1990,103,21
Europe / 2010s,34,7
Europe / 2000s,47,9
North America / pre-1990,6,1
Latin America / pre-1990,10,2
Latin America / 1990s,2,1
Latin America / 2000s,7,1
Other / 2000s,6,1
Asia-Pacific / 2010s,4,1
Other / 2020s,2,1
Other / 1990s,9,2
Asia-Pacific / 1990s,5,1
Other / pre-1990,3,1
Europe / 2020s,3,1
North America / 2000s,2,1
Asia-Pacific / 2000s,4,1
Other / 2010s,5,1
Latin America / 2010s,1,1
North America / 1990s,1,1
Latin America / 2020s,1,1
1 stratum eligible_parties blocked_parties
2 Asia-Pacific / pre-1990 12 2
3 Europe / 1990s 121 24
4 Europe / pre-1990 103 21
5 Europe / 2010s 34 7
6 Europe / 2000s 47 9
7 North America / pre-1990 6 1
8 Latin America / pre-1990 10 2
9 Latin America / 1990s 2 1
10 Latin America / 2000s 7 1
11 Other / 2000s 6 1
12 Asia-Pacific / 2010s 4 1
13 Other / 2020s 2 1
14 Other / 1990s 9 2
15 Asia-Pacific / 1990s 5 1
16 Other / pre-1990 3 1
17 Europe / 2020s 3 1
18 North America / 2000s 2 1
19 Asia-Pacific / 2000s 4 1
20 Other / 2010s 5 1
21 Latin America / 2010s 1 1
22 North America / 1990s 1 1
23 Latin America / 2020s 1 1
validation/outputs/blocked_fit_diagnostics/input_sha256sums.txt
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8ba73dc9d378037333cc4ef1629d59350237f911b4fcd3dfd319cefb4769e23a _local/revision/blocked_party/text_data.csv
a1b5031df7754ba33234e8e2ec40bb0f0d10b0aed12b277a8ea1f7876fb0f658 _local/revision/blocked_party/expert.csv
8129e85cd13877c7a5c8698430be279265d1bb9b9dd16438f55b7159597b5af7 _local/revision/blocked_party/lr_data.csv
ed05b52f16139ebce88d3d281e19f4b8140fa1b0f0791fa8fb00ac2ccf347c1f _local/revision/blocked_party/expert_test.csv
fcf131031e9bac5231fdd829b4d2f0b6ac8d9a2de748175a5fb897be048a7abe _local/revision/blocked_party/lr_data_test.csv
validation/outputs/blocked_fit_diagnostics/metadata.json
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{
"year0": 1943,
"mean_ess": 3900.832212330333,
"num_samples": 1000,
"max_depth": 15,
"num_chains": 4,
"run_id": "run_2026-08-13_00-02-50",
"files": {
"chain_size_gb": 2.28,
"data": [
"expert_dim.csv",
"expert_lr.csv",
"segment_info.csv",
"segment_year_map.csv",
"stan_data.json",
"text_data.csv"
],
"total_size_gb": 9.12,
"chains": [
"chains/chain_1.csv",
"chains/chain_2.csv",
"chains/chain_3.csv",
"chains/chain_4.csv"
]
},
"max_rhat": 1.02529,
"model_file": "models/stan_model_2dim_v6.stan",
"dimensions": [
"economic_lr",
"galtan"
],
"convergence_status": "excellent",
"mean_rhat": 1.001168748932864,
"model_version": "2dim",
"min_ess": 136.47,
"num_warmup": 1000,
"timestamp": "2026-08-13_00-02-50",
"adapt_delta": 0.95
}
validation/outputs/blocked_fit_diagnostics/model_fit.environment
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CMDSTAN_HOME=/opt/agent-tools/cmdstan-2.39.0
JULIA_NUM_THREADS=4
STAN_NUM_THREADS=1
PARTY2D_NUM_CHAINS=4
PARTY2D_NUM_WARMUP=1000
PARTY2D_NUM_SAMPLES=1000
validation/outputs/blocked_fit_diagnostics/run_metrics.json
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validation/outputs/blocked_fit_diagnostics/stanc_version.txt
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stanc3 v2.39.0 (Unix)