Publish party-position estimates and validation materials

validation/monitor_long_run.sh

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+#!/usr/bin/env bash
+set -euo pipefail
+
+run_dir="${1:-_local/validation/blocked_party}"
+pid_file="$run_dir/model_fit.pid"
+log_file="$run_dir/model_fit.log"
+
+if [[ ! -f "$pid_file" ]]; then
+  echo "No PID file at $pid_file"
+  exit 1
+fi
+
+pid="$(tr -dc '0-9' < "$pid_file")"
+echo "Run directory: $run_dir"
+echo "PID: $pid"
+date --iso-8601=seconds
+
+if ps -p "$pid" >/dev/null 2>&1; then
+  echo "Status: running"
+  ps -o pid,ppid,etimes,%cpu,%mem,rss,vsz,stat,cmd -p "$pid"
+  echo "Model processes:"
+  julia_pid="$(pgrep -P "$pid" -f 'julia.*01_run_model[.]jl' | head -1 || true)"
+  if [[ -n "$julia_pid" ]]; then
+    process_ids="$pid,$julia_pid"
+    while IFS= read -r child_pid; do
+      [[ -n "$child_pid" ]] && process_ids="$process_ids,$child_pid"
+    done < <(pgrep -P "$julia_pid" || true)
+    ps -o pid,ppid,etimes,%cpu,%mem,rss,ni,stat,cmd -p "$process_ids"
+  else
+    ps -eo pid,ppid,etimes,%cpu,%mem,rss,ni,stat,cmd | awk -v p="$pid" '$2 == p || $1 == p'
+  fi
+else
+  echo "Status: not running"
+fi
+
+echo "Latest sampler progress:"
+grep 'Iteration:' "$log_file" 2>/dev/null | tail -12 || true
+
+echo "Recorded sampler events:"
+printf '  rejected-proposal exceptions: '
+grep -c '^Exception:' "$log_file" 2>/dev/null || true
+printf '  divergence messages: '
+grep -ci 'divergent transition' "$log_file" 2>/dev/null || true
+
+echo "Disk use:"
+du -sh "$run_dir" _local/tmp/blocked_validation 2>/dev/null || true
+df -h "$run_dir" | tail -1
+
+echo "Recent log:"
+tail -40 "$log_file" 2>/dev/null || true