Publish party-position estimates and validation materials
This commit is contained in:
Armin Seimel
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============================================================
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UNCERTAINTY VALIDATION: Posterior Predictive Coverage
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============================================================
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Following Claassen (2019) validation framework
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Posterior predictive intervals account for both position
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uncertainty AND observation-level measurement noise.
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Using specified run directory: /projects/party4d/archive/party2d_replication/outputs/model_outputs/latest/run_2026-06-12_09-34-03
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Loaded expert_dim.csv: 22994 observations
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Unique rr values: 4261
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Item indices (var_exp_dim): [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12]
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Dimensions (dim_idx_exp): [1, 2]
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Loading 4 chain files (selective columns)...
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Need 8547 columns (4261 rr × 2 dims + 24 item params + 1 phi)
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Found 8547/8547 columns in chains
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Loading chain 1: chain_1.csv... 2000 samples, 39.3s
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Loading chain 2: chain_2.csv... 2000 samples, 22.4s
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Loading chain 3: chain_3.csv... 2000 samples, 24.5s
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Loading chain 4: chain_4.csv... 2000 samples, 16.7s
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Combined: 8000 total posterior draws
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V5 detected: using Beta(phi*K*mu, phi*K*(1-mu)) with per-observation K
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Computing posterior predictive coverage (95% level)
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Expert observations: 22994
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Posterior draws: 8000
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Progress: 5.0% (1149 / 22994)
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Progress: 10.0% (2298 / 22994)
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Progress: 15.0% (3447 / 22994)
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Progress: 20.0% (4596 / 22994)
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Progress: 25.0% (5745 / 22994)
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Progress: 30.0% (6894 / 22994)
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Progress: 35.0% (8043 / 22994)
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Progress: 40.0% (9192 / 22994)
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Progress: 45.0% (10341 / 22994)
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Progress: 50.0% (11490 / 22994)
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Progress: 55.0% (12639 / 22994)
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Progress: 60.0% (13788 / 22994)
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Progress: 65.0% (14937 / 22994)
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Progress: 70.0% (16086 / 22994)
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Progress: 75.0% (17235 / 22994)
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Progress: 80.0% (18384 / 22994)
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Progress: 84.9% (19533 / 22994)
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Progress: 89.9% (20682 / 22994)
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Progress: 94.9% (21831 / 22994)
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Progress: 99.9% (22980 / 22994)
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Progress: 100.0% (22994 / 22994)
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============================================================
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POSTERIOR PREDICTIVE COVERAGE (95%)
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============================================================
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economic left-right : 89.8% [89.1%, 90.5%] (6698/7455)
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By survey source:
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Project N PPC
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V-Party 5645 87.5%
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CHES 1177 97.3%
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POPPA 384 98.7%
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GPS 249 94.0%
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By decade:
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Decade N PPC
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1970 658 88.1%
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1980 712 88.9%
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1990 1454 88.0%
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2000 1758 89.4%
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2010 2407 90.2%
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2020 466 99.1%
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cultural cosmopolitan--traditionalist : 84.8% [84.2%, 85.3%] (13170/15539)
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By survey source:
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Project N PPC
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V-Party 14114 83.8%
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CHES 1176 94.3%
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GPS 249 91.2%
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By decade:
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Decade N PPC
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1970 1633 86.2%
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1980 1772 87.9%
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1990 3485 85.5%
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2000 3965 84.3%
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2010 4426 82.1%
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2020 258 97.7%
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Saved detailed posterior-predictive results to: revision/outputs/ppc
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============================================================
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RECOMPUTING WITH 80% LEVEL (Claassen comparison)
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============================================================
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V5 detected: using Beta(phi*K*mu, phi*K*(1-mu)) with per-observation K
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Computing posterior predictive coverage (80% level)
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Expert observations: 22994
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Posterior draws: 8000
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Progress: 5.0% (1149 / 22994)
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Progress: 10.0% (2298 / 22994)
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Progress: 15.0% (3447 / 22994)
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Progress: 20.0% (4596 / 22994)
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Progress: 25.0% (5745 / 22994)
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Progress: 30.0% (6894 / 22994)
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Progress: 35.0% (8043 / 22994)
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Progress: 40.0% (9192 / 22994)
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Progress: 45.0% (10341 / 22994)
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Progress: 50.0% (11490 / 22994)
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Progress: 55.0% (12639 / 22994)
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Progress: 60.0% (13788 / 22994)
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Progress: 65.0% (14937 / 22994)
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Progress: 70.0% (16086 / 22994)
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Progress: 75.0% (17235 / 22994)
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Progress: 80.0% (18384 / 22994)
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Progress: 84.9% (19533 / 22994)
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Progress: 89.9% (20682 / 22994)
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Progress: 94.9% (21831 / 22994)
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Progress: 99.9% (22980 / 22994)
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Progress: 100.0% (22994 / 22994)
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============================================================
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POSTERIOR PREDICTIVE COVERAGE (80%)
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============================================================
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economic left-right : 75.9% [74.9%, 76.8%] (5655/7455)
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By survey source:
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Project N PPC
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V-Party 5645 71.5%
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CHES 1177 90.1%
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POPPA 384 92.2%
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GPS 249 82.7%
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By decade:
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Decade N PPC
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1970 658 69.3%
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1980 712 73.5%
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1990 1454 73.8%
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2000 1758 74.1%
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2010 2407 77.0%
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2020 466 95.7%
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cultural cosmopolitan--traditionalist : 67.9% [67.1%, 68.6%] (10544/15539)
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By survey source:
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Project N PPC
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