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Consolidate scale examples into one figure

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validation/CASE_SELECTION.md
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# Predeclared case-selection rules
# Scale-example selection and interpretation
These rules were recorded before inspecting the selected parties' position estimates.
The scale examples are selected to make the two released dimensions substantively interpretable. They are illustrative reference cases rather than a representative sample or an independent validation of the posterior coordinates. Published party-history research supports the qualitative interpretation of the cases, not their exact estimated values.
## Trajectory figure
The figure will use parties selected for cross-national recognition, family diversity, long election coverage, and relevance to interpreting movement on the two scales. Selection is not based on the magnitude of the estimated movement.
The connected paths show recognizable changes across countries and political traditions:
Preselected parties:
- Hungary: Fidesz (PartyFacts 1691), 1990--2022.
- Denmark: Social Democratic Party (PartyFacts 379), 2007--2019.
- United States: Democratic Party (PartyFacts 432), 1944--2020.
- Germany: Social Democratic Party of Germany (PartyFacts 383)
- Germany: Christian Democratic Union (PartyFacts 1375)
- United Kingdom: Labour Party (PartyFacts 1516)
- United Kingdom: Conservative Party (PartyFacts 1567)
- Denmark: Social Democratic Party, short name SD (PartyFacts 379)
- Sweden: Sweden Democrats (PartyFacts 409)
- United States: Democratic Party (PartyFacts 432)
- United States: Republican Party (PartyFacts 809)
The final display may use a subset only to preserve legibility, but exclusions must be based on panel layout or insufficient coverage rather than unattractive results. Both posterior means and 95% latent-position credible intervals will be shown. Text will not infer a cause of movement from the estimates alone.
All election-year posterior means in these windows form the connected paths. The labelled endpoints include 95% latent-position credible intervals. The manuscript uses published historical research to interpret the broad movements without treating the estimates as causal evidence.
## Two-dimensional landmarks
Landmarks will be selected from recognizable party-election cases, with representation of economically left/right, culturally cosmopolitan/traditionalist, and moderate combinations. Target years are declared before checking exact positions; if the requested year is absent, the nearest election within three years will be used and disclosed.
The standalone anchors cover low, middle and high regions of both scales and include cross-pressured combinations:
- German Social Democratic Party: 1972 and 2021
- German Christian Democratic Union: 1983 and 2021
- UK Labour Party: 1983 and 1997
- UK Conservative Party: 1979 and 2019
- Swedish Social Democratic Labour Party (PartyFacts 487): 1994 and 2022
- Sweden Democrats: 2010 and 2022
- French National Front (PartyFacts 433): 1988 and 2022
- German The Left (PartyFacts 1545): 2021
- US Democratic Party: 2020
- US Republican Party: 2020
- German The Left: 2021 (PartyFacts 1545).
- German Christian Democratic Union: 2021 (PartyFacts 1375).
- Polish Law and Justice: 2019 (PartyFacts 1565).
- UK Conservative Party: 1979 (PartyFacts 1567).
- French National Front: 2022 (PartyFacts 433).
- US Republican Party: 2020 (PartyFacts 809).
Labels may be pruned only to avoid overlap. The plotting-data table will retain all declared cases, including missing cases and substitutions.
Every anchor must match the requested party-year exactly. Horizontal and vertical bars show 95% latent-position credible intervals. The machine-readable plotting table retains every path observation and anchor.
validation/EVIDENCE_MANIFEST.csv
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id,topic,input,output,status
1,country coverage,release v0 election-year panel,metadata/country_coverage_v0.csv,complete
2,scale trajectories,release v0 election-year panel,validation/figures/party_trajectories.pdf,complete
3,landmark party space,release v0 election-year panel,validation/figures/party_landmarks.pdf,complete
2,historical scale anchors and trajectories,release v0 election-year panel,validation/figures/party_scale_examples.pdf,complete
4,research workflow,documented source and release workflow,validation/figures/research_workflow.pdf,complete
5,party-blocked validation,guarded blocked fit with 82 parties and completed post-estimation extraction,validation/outputs/blocked_validation_summary.csv,complete_with_convergence_limitation
6,predictive coverage,production posterior run run_2026-06-12_09-34-03,validation/outputs/ppc/posterior_predictive_by_dimension_item.csv,complete
1 id topic input output status
2 1 country coverage release v0 election-year panel metadata/country_coverage_v0.csv complete
3 2 scale trajectories historical scale anchors and trajectories release v0 election-year panel validation/figures/party_trajectories.pdf validation/figures/party_scale_examples.pdf complete
3 landmark party space release v0 election-year panel validation/figures/party_landmarks.pdf complete
4 4 research workflow documented source and release workflow validation/figures/research_workflow.pdf complete
5 5 party-blocked validation guarded blocked fit with 82 parties and completed post-estimation extraction validation/outputs/blocked_validation_summary.csv complete_with_convergence_limitation
6 6 predictive coverage production posterior run run_2026-06-12_09-34-03 validation/outputs/ppc/posterior_predictive_by_dimension_item.csv complete
validation/README.md
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## Reproduction Entry Points
- `run_postprocessing.R`: country coverage, scale illustrations, V-Party sensitivity and partially pooled source-support diagnostics.
- `plot_scale_examples.R`: historically anchored party paths and scale-reference cases generated from the released election-year panel.
- `run_postprocessing.R`: country coverage, scale examples, V-Party sensitivity and partially pooled source-support diagnostics.
- `validate_uncertainty.jl`: production-chain predictive coverage, calibration and source/item/country/decade breakdowns.
- `prepare_blocked_validation.jl`: deterministic party-blocked train/test construction.
- `run_blocked_validation.sh`: guarded low-priority fit with disk, duplicate-process, toolchain and logging checks.
validation/figures/party_landmarks.pdf
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validation/outputs/party_landmark_plot_data.csv
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"party_id","target_year","label","status","actual_year","party_name","country","economic_lr","economic_lower","economic_upper","galtan","galtan_lower","galtan_upper","source_support_class","era"
383,1972,"German Social Democrats 1972","exact",1972,"Social Democratic Party of Germany","DE",0.271573270375,0.162936225,0.38761415,0.370199619125,0.2680677,0.473299475,"both_direct_or_nearby","Historical & Cold War Era (1970–1999)"
383,2021,"German Social Democrats 2021","exact",2021,"Social Democratic Party of Germany","DE",0.2363366825,0.148430575,0.330595375,0.36824540875,0.27656695,0.461600275,"both_direct_or_nearby","Contemporary Era (2000–2022)"
1375,1983,"German Christian Democrats 1983","exact",1983,"Christian Democratic Union","DE",0.704186118875,0.559885375,0.832835125,0.6167079735,0.5088347,0.716463575,"text_only_direct_or_nearby","Historical & Cold War Era (1970–1999)"
1375,2021,"German Christian Democrats 2021","exact",2021,"Christian Democratic Union","DE",0.57714137175,0.45681705,0.69505505,0.536185121875,0.433751725,0.636189175,"text_only_direct_or_nearby","Contemporary Era (2000–2022)"
1516,1983,"Labour 1983","exact",1983,"Labour Party","GB",0.259080600525,0.1453436,0.3814767,0.34731692875,0.243851525,0.45443645,"both_direct_or_nearby","Historical & Cold War Era (1970–1999)"
1516,1997,"Labour 1997","exact",1997,"Labour Party","GB",0.540093913375,0.45312245,0.63004375,0.50597976425,0.44681665,0.566031675,"both_direct_or_nearby","Historical & Cold War Era (1970–1999)"
1567,1979,"Conservatives 1979","exact",1979,"Conservative Party","GB",0.863733304625,0.78370345,0.932120225,0.58421918175,0.47261405,0.691922375,"both_direct_or_nearby","Historical & Cold War Era (1970–1999)"
1567,2019,"Conservatives 2019","exact",2019,"Conservative Party","GB",0.734806347125,0.6674518,0.805338225,0.604817389125,0.5601045,0.6518521,"both_direct_or_nearby","Contemporary Era (2000–2022)"
487,1994,"Swedish Social Democrats 1994","exact",1994,"Social Democratic Labour Party","SE",0.58329747225,0.45880465,0.706358175,0.323307833,0.22678185,0.42106565,"both_direct_or_nearby","Historical & Cold War Era (1970–1999)"
487,2022,"Swedish Social Democrats 2022","exact",2022,"Social Democratic Labour Party","SE",0.271161611625,0.18001335,0.364595125,0.431600183875,0.333020475,0.530597425,"both_direct_or_nearby","Contemporary Era (2000–2022)"
409,2010,"Sweden Democrats 2010","exact",2010,"Sweden Democrats","SE",0.57402493025,0.47088145,0.681297275,0.721373298875,0.653960175,0.78768305,"both_direct_or_nearby","Contemporary Era (2000–2022)"
409,2022,"Sweden Democrats 2022","exact",2022,"Sweden Democrats","SE",0.609638368125,0.490017925,0.7238046,0.753425659,0.653108875,0.84672335,"both_direct_or_nearby","Contemporary Era (2000–2022)"
433,1988,"French National Front 1988","exact",1988,"National Front","FR",0.78687783275,0.6924592,0.8758855,0.797982186375,0.7315981,0.86105335,"both_direct_or_nearby","Historical & Cold War Era (1970–1999)"
433,2022,"French National Front 2022","exact",2022,"National Front","FR",0.524320955125,0.398589175,0.645052275,0.829604491,0.73907015,0.911430725,"both_direct_or_nearby","Contemporary Era (2000–2022)"
1545,2021,"The Left 2021","exact",2021,"The Left","DE",0.05463340125125,0.0205853625,0.104672875,0.2266517688,0.13204575,0.336095325,"both_direct_or_nearby","Contemporary Era (2000–2022)"
432,2020,"US Democrats 2020","exact",2020,"Democratic Party","US",0.299892256625,0.1963003,0.410606025,0.3345769065,0.263694925,0.405684575,"both_direct_or_nearby","Contemporary Era (2000–2022)"
809,2020,"US Republicans 2020","exact",2020,"Republican Party","US",0.8507495345,0.77742365,0.917357075,0.721311676375,0.65728435,0.78442835,"both_direct_or_nearby","Contemporary Era (2000–2022)"
1 party_id target_year label status actual_year party_name country economic_lr economic_lower economic_upper galtan galtan_lower galtan_upper source_support_class era
2 383 1972 German Social Democrats 1972 exact 1972 Social Democratic Party of Germany DE 0.271573270375 0.162936225 0.38761415 0.370199619125 0.2680677 0.473299475 both_direct_or_nearby Historical & Cold War Era (1970–1999)
3 383 2021 German Social Democrats 2021 exact 2021 Social Democratic Party of Germany DE 0.2363366825 0.148430575 0.330595375 0.36824540875 0.27656695 0.461600275 both_direct_or_nearby Contemporary Era (2000–2022)
4 1375 1983 German Christian Democrats 1983 exact 1983 Christian Democratic Union DE 0.704186118875 0.559885375 0.832835125 0.6167079735 0.5088347 0.716463575 text_only_direct_or_nearby Historical & Cold War Era (1970–1999)
5 1375 2021 German Christian Democrats 2021 exact 2021 Christian Democratic Union DE 0.57714137175 0.45681705 0.69505505 0.536185121875 0.433751725 0.636189175 text_only_direct_or_nearby Contemporary Era (2000–2022)
6 1516 1983 Labour 1983 exact 1983 Labour Party GB 0.259080600525 0.1453436 0.3814767 0.34731692875 0.243851525 0.45443645 both_direct_or_nearby Historical & Cold War Era (1970–1999)
7 1516 1997 Labour 1997 exact 1997 Labour Party GB 0.540093913375 0.45312245 0.63004375 0.50597976425 0.44681665 0.566031675 both_direct_or_nearby Historical & Cold War Era (1970–1999)
8 1567 1979 Conservatives 1979 exact 1979 Conservative Party GB 0.863733304625 0.78370345 0.932120225 0.58421918175 0.47261405 0.691922375 both_direct_or_nearby Historical & Cold War Era (1970–1999)
9 1567 2019 Conservatives 2019 exact 2019 Conservative Party GB 0.734806347125 0.6674518 0.805338225 0.604817389125 0.5601045 0.6518521 both_direct_or_nearby Contemporary Era (2000–2022)
10 487 1994 Swedish Social Democrats 1994 exact 1994 Social Democratic Labour Party SE 0.58329747225 0.45880465 0.706358175 0.323307833 0.22678185 0.42106565 both_direct_or_nearby Historical & Cold War Era (1970–1999)
11 487 2022 Swedish Social Democrats 2022 exact 2022 Social Democratic Labour Party SE 0.271161611625 0.18001335 0.364595125 0.431600183875 0.333020475 0.530597425 both_direct_or_nearby Contemporary Era (2000–2022)
12 409 2010 Sweden Democrats 2010 exact 2010 Sweden Democrats SE 0.57402493025 0.47088145 0.681297275 0.721373298875 0.653960175 0.78768305 both_direct_or_nearby Contemporary Era (2000–2022)
13 409 2022 Sweden Democrats 2022 exact 2022 Sweden Democrats SE 0.609638368125 0.490017925 0.7238046 0.753425659 0.653108875 0.84672335 both_direct_or_nearby Contemporary Era (2000–2022)
14 433 1988 French National Front 1988 exact 1988 National Front FR 0.78687783275 0.6924592 0.8758855 0.797982186375 0.7315981 0.86105335 both_direct_or_nearby Historical & Cold War Era (1970–1999)
15 433 2022 French National Front 2022 exact 2022 National Front FR 0.524320955125 0.398589175 0.645052275 0.829604491 0.73907015 0.911430725 both_direct_or_nearby Contemporary Era (2000–2022)
16 1545 2021 The Left 2021 exact 2021 The Left DE 0.05463340125125 0.0205853625 0.104672875 0.2266517688 0.13204575 0.336095325 both_direct_or_nearby Contemporary Era (2000–2022)
17 432 2020 US Democrats 2020 exact 2020 Democratic Party US 0.299892256625 0.1963003 0.410606025 0.3345769065 0.263694925 0.405684575 both_direct_or_nearby Contemporary Era (2000–2022)
18 809 2020 US Republicans 2020 exact 2020 Republican Party US 0.8507495345 0.77742365 0.917357075 0.721311676375 0.65728435 0.78442835 both_direct_or_nearby Contemporary Era (2000–2022)
validation/outputs/party_scale_example_plot_data.csv
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"party_id","party_name_english","country","year","series","display_role","is_labelled","label","economic_lr","economic_lr_q025","economic_lr_q975","galtan","galtan_q025","galtan_q975","source_support_class"
1691,"Alliance of Federation of Young Democrats - Christian Democratic People's Party","HU",1990,"Fidesz","trajectory",TRUE,"Fidesz 1990",0.795697337,0.70899655,0.87648775,0.4295503695,0.338122875,0.519430375,"both_direct_or_nearby"
1691,"Alliance of Federation of Young Democrats - Christian Democratic People's Party","HU",1994,"Fidesz","trajectory",FALSE,"",0.7450017325,0.65021645,0.836997975,0.469019004125,0.37362615,0.5623686,"both_direct_or_nearby"
1691,"Alliance of Federation of Young Democrats - Christian Democratic People's Party","HU",1998,"Fidesz","trajectory",FALSE,"",0.59455354525,0.476766425,0.7092811,0.673702941125,0.588517925,0.7568127,"both_direct_or_nearby"
1691,"Alliance of Federation of Young Democrats - Christian Democratic People's Party","HU",2002,"Fidesz","trajectory",FALSE,"",0.496963365,0.394636075,0.597197,0.71208827075,0.646802025,0.778020125,"both_direct_or_nearby"
1691,"Alliance of Federation of Young Democrats - Christian Democratic People's Party","HU",2006,"Fidesz","trajectory",FALSE,"",0.329623909,0.2496998,0.40835205,0.68546738575,0.62654775,0.744955475,"both_direct_or_nearby"
1691,"Alliance of Federation of Young Democrats - Christian Democratic People's Party","HU",2010,"Fidesz","trajectory",FALSE,"",0.41832002325,0.339523125,0.49530825,0.68100314675,0.627436275,0.7387168,"both_direct_or_nearby"
1691,"Alliance of Federation of Young Democrats - Christian Democratic People's Party","HU",2014,"Fidesz","trajectory",FALSE,"",0.37904524325,0.3043576,0.4502539,0.7295393835,0.676723975,0.78351645,"both_direct_or_nearby"
1691,"Alliance of Federation of Young Democrats - Christian Democratic People's Party","HU",2018,"Fidesz","trajectory",FALSE,"",0.371665591375,0.280800025,0.4637821,0.86823710225,0.8161685,0.915369475,"both_direct_or_nearby"
1691,"Alliance of Federation of Young Democrats - Christian Democratic People's Party","HU",2022,"Fidesz","trajectory",TRUE,"Fidesz 2022",0.31143068805,0.19161285,0.4433925,0.85010683275,0.781581375,0.9084991,"both_direct_or_nearby"
379,"Social Democratic Party","DK",2007,"Danish Social Democrats","trajectory",TRUE,"Danish Social Democrats 2007",0.2504832553,0.1616851,0.347202325,0.377073825875,0.288222975,0.46642125,"both_direct_or_nearby"
379,"Social Democratic Party","DK",2011,"Danish Social Democrats","trajectory",FALSE,"",0.277551306,0.187687975,0.3698644,0.44217709925,0.351102525,0.5332076,"both_direct_or_nearby"
379,"Social Democratic Party","DK",2015,"Danish Social Democrats","trajectory",FALSE,"",0.2492670365,0.160125675,0.34358355,0.5274942445,0.44580275,0.608968575,"both_direct_or_nearby"
379,"Social Democratic Party","DK",2019,"Danish Social Democrats","trajectory",TRUE,"Danish Social Democrats 2019",0.254542113875,0.180740975,0.32727345,0.440971318625,0.38293125,0.4998911,"both_direct_or_nearby"
432,"Democratic Party","US",1944,"US Democrats","trajectory",TRUE,"US Democrats 1944",0.698409049125,0.5552958,0.824995025,0.399063251375,0.265179225,0.529592,"text_only_direct_or_nearby"
432,"Democratic Party","US",1946,"US Democrats","trajectory",FALSE,"",0.6100566435,0.436287675,0.7680873,0.43006576325,0.30106965,0.5609482,"text_only_direct_or_nearby"
432,"Democratic Party","US",1948,"US Democrats","trajectory",FALSE,"",0.516188009,0.347767775,0.6774628,0.4627546565,0.34296995,0.574057075,"text_only_direct_or_nearby"
432,"Democratic Party","US",1950,"US Democrats","trajectory",FALSE,"",0.4990402315,0.31624725,0.680389925,0.45428776325,0.329907575,0.576572725,"text_only_direct_or_nearby"
432,"Democratic Party","US",1952,"US Democrats","trajectory",FALSE,"",0.480909024125,0.31415515,0.64191195,0.445425776,0.32263375,0.565348275,"text_only_direct_or_nearby"
432,"Democratic Party","US",1954,"US Democrats","trajectory",FALSE,"",0.4676351045,0.2860462,0.6559878,0.4442040055,0.31337035,0.57193295,"text_only_direct_or_nearby"
432,"Democratic Party","US",1956,"US Democrats","trajectory",FALSE,"",0.454944175625,0.282914075,0.62753175,0.441641760625,0.31338675,0.56900755,"text_only_direct_or_nearby"
432,"Democratic Party","US",1958,"US Democrats","trajectory",FALSE,"",0.471283276625,0.28607265,0.6557644,0.4310392955,0.300791925,0.5603127,"text_only_direct_or_nearby"
432,"Democratic Party","US",1960,"US Democrats","trajectory",FALSE,"",0.48889281875,0.31862905,0.6559868,0.419887367125,0.2951369,0.5445245,"text_only_direct_or_nearby"
432,"Democratic Party","US",1962,"US Democrats","trajectory",FALSE,"",0.51785394875,0.338929125,0.694084875,0.44040438625,0.312552375,0.56582825,"text_only_direct_or_nearby"
432,"Democratic Party","US",1964,"US Democrats","trajectory",FALSE,"",0.546579874625,0.39307825,0.694190825,0.4614879695,0.34226625,0.576020475,"text_only_direct_or_nearby"
432,"Democratic Party","US",1966,"US Democrats","trajectory",FALSE,"",0.55771690125,0.386799175,0.723825375,0.47960343075,0.362259975,0.59869045,"text_only_direct_or_nearby"
432,"Democratic Party","US",1968,"US Democrats","trajectory",FALSE,"",0.56956003125,0.421312425,0.71267515,0.49807209025,0.394480575,0.601277575,"both_direct_or_nearby"
432,"Democratic Party","US",1970,"US Democrats","trajectory",FALSE,"",0.51903405975,0.3669889,0.66457315,0.496738669125,0.399482825,0.58992185,"both_direct_or_nearby"
432,"Democratic Party","US",1972,"US Democrats","trajectory",FALSE,"",0.4775428755,0.3428972,0.610643875,0.49040686275,0.4030488,0.57786425,"both_direct_or_nearby"
432,"Democratic Party","US",1974,"US Democrats","trajectory",FALSE,"",0.47660148325,0.33038635,0.62320975,0.49004719075,0.39855135,0.581602525,"both_direct_or_nearby"
432,"Democratic Party","US",1976,"US Democrats","trajectory",FALSE,"",0.464841852875,0.3176285,0.610416,0.481845156875,0.3987983,0.5663995,"both_direct_or_nearby"
432,"Democratic Party","US",1978,"US Democrats","trajectory",FALSE,"",0.479180885,0.33296985,0.628182925,0.471634046125,0.3830498,0.559650875,"both_direct_or_nearby"
432,"Democratic Party","US",1980,"US Democrats","trajectory",FALSE,"",0.47521863525,0.334265075,0.611498675,0.459089784625,0.374301825,0.540956275,"both_direct_or_nearby"
432,"Democratic Party","US",1982,"US Democrats","trajectory",FALSE,"",0.531094059875,0.384578025,0.676582375,0.480199354625,0.390671025,0.568408325,"both_direct_or_nearby"
432,"Democratic Party","US",1984,"US Democrats","trajectory",FALSE,"",0.58084896025,0.448074,0.70587575,0.48393646225,0.3990376,0.566166075,"both_direct_or_nearby"
432,"Democratic Party","US",1986,"US Democrats","trajectory",FALSE,"",0.590921938875,0.445197875,0.729574825,0.500757938625,0.4131278,0.5871789,"both_direct_or_nearby"
432,"Democratic Party","US",1988,"US Democrats","trajectory",FALSE,"",0.591401089625,0.453012225,0.72308005,0.514815462375,0.437706575,0.591401025,"both_direct_or_nearby"
432,"Democratic Party","US",1990,"US Democrats","trajectory",FALSE,"",0.587242934375,0.446163525,0.72656675,0.501517254375,0.416105775,0.588248725,"both_direct_or_nearby"
432,"Democratic Party","US",1992,"US Democrats","trajectory",FALSE,"",0.5747092955,0.4469363,0.697395475,0.49163971825,0.412797475,0.5705842,"both_direct_or_nearby"
432,"Democratic Party","US",1994,"US Democrats","trajectory",FALSE,"",0.55610215325,0.417261925,0.694079775,0.50488034675,0.41940905,0.59045095,"both_direct_or_nearby"
432,"Democratic Party","US",1996,"US Democrats","trajectory",FALSE,"",0.537558009875,0.407077,0.66497885,0.534332495875,0.45828705,0.61213325,"both_direct_or_nearby"
432,"Democratic Party","US",1998,"US Democrats","trajectory",FALSE,"",0.5346228825,0.397207725,0.667506225,0.51719082575,0.433112,0.601775975,"both_direct_or_nearby"
432,"Democratic Party","US",2000,"US Democrats","trajectory",FALSE,"",0.52560124375,0.400391675,0.647465875,0.5223177775,0.4416794,0.60143625,"both_direct_or_nearby"
432,"Democratic Party","US",2002,"US Democrats","trajectory",FALSE,"",0.52842955525,0.391998875,0.66564455,0.50836329775,0.423691075,0.59134925,"both_direct_or_nearby"
432,"Democratic Party","US",2004,"US Democrats","trajectory",FALSE,"",0.543902436,0.4145262,0.671430825,0.516749446,0.441188025,0.59188105,"both_direct_or_nearby"
432,"Democratic Party","US",2006,"US Democrats","trajectory",FALSE,"",0.54177734475,0.400920425,0.677932225,0.501197753875,0.41943865,0.582125475,"both_direct_or_nearby"
432,"Democratic Party","US",2008,"US Democrats","trajectory",FALSE,"",0.545419757375,0.4161232,0.673619225,0.51274549925,0.4396938,0.58390315,"both_direct_or_nearby"
432,"Democratic Party","US",2010,"US Democrats","trajectory",FALSE,"",0.538199294125,0.3999131,0.67284665,0.454230253125,0.367953775,0.5372262,"both_direct_or_nearby"
432,"Democratic Party","US",2012,"US Democrats","trajectory",FALSE,"",0.5370862765,0.417647925,0.656738175,0.421189865125,0.344467325,0.497562075,"both_direct_or_nearby"
432,"Democratic Party","US",2014,"US Democrats","trajectory",FALSE,"",0.462867505375,0.326761075,0.602355425,0.389843067375,0.309037225,0.471238225,"both_direct_or_nearby"
432,"Democratic Party","US",2016,"US Democrats","trajectory",FALSE,"",0.388854405625,0.2650008,0.511855575,0.371516706875,0.296737875,0.446610025,"both_direct_or_nearby"
432,"Democratic Party","US",2020,"US Democrats","trajectory",TRUE,"US Democrats 2020",0.299892256625,0.1963003,0.410606025,0.3345769065,0.263694925,0.405684575,"both_direct_or_nearby"
1545,"The Left","DE",2021,"Standalone anchors","anchor",TRUE,"The Left 2021",0.05463340125125,0.0205853625,0.104672875,0.2266517688,0.13204575,0.336095325,"both_direct_or_nearby"
1375,"Christian Democratic Union","DE",2021,"Standalone anchors","anchor",TRUE,"CDU 2021",0.57714137175,0.45681705,0.69505505,0.536185121875,0.433751725,0.636189175,"text_only_direct_or_nearby"
1565,"Law and Justice","PL",2019,"Standalone anchors","anchor",TRUE,"PiS 2019",0.230162367175,0.159245575,0.300962375,0.841737028125,0.78973335,0.891444425,"both_direct_or_nearby"
1567,"Conservative Party","GB",1979,"Standalone anchors","anchor",TRUE,"UK Conservatives 1979",0.863733304625,0.78370345,0.932120225,0.58421918175,0.47261405,0.691922375,"both_direct_or_nearby"
433,"National Front","FR",2022,"Standalone anchors","anchor",TRUE,"French National Front 2022",0.524320955125,0.398589175,0.645052275,0.829604491,0.73907015,0.911430725,"both_direct_or_nearby"
809,"Republican Party","US",2020,"Standalone anchors","anchor",TRUE,"US Republicans 2020",0.8507495345,0.77742365,0.917357075,0.721311676375,0.65728435,0.78442835,"both_direct_or_nearby"
1 party_id party_name_english country year series display_role is_labelled label economic_lr economic_lr_q025 economic_lr_q975 galtan galtan_q025 galtan_q975 source_support_class
2 1691 Alliance of Federation of Young Democrats - Christian Democratic People's Party HU 1990 Fidesz trajectory TRUE Fidesz 1990 0.795697337 0.70899655 0.87648775 0.4295503695 0.338122875 0.519430375 both_direct_or_nearby
3 1691 Alliance of Federation of Young Democrats - Christian Democratic People's Party HU 1994 Fidesz trajectory FALSE 0.7450017325 0.65021645 0.836997975 0.469019004125 0.37362615 0.5623686 both_direct_or_nearby
4 1691 Alliance of Federation of Young Democrats - Christian Democratic People's Party HU 1998 Fidesz trajectory FALSE 0.59455354525 0.476766425 0.7092811 0.673702941125 0.588517925 0.7568127 both_direct_or_nearby
5 1691 Alliance of Federation of Young Democrats - Christian Democratic People's Party HU 2002 Fidesz trajectory FALSE 0.496963365 0.394636075 0.597197 0.71208827075 0.646802025 0.778020125 both_direct_or_nearby
6 1691 Alliance of Federation of Young Democrats - Christian Democratic People's Party HU 2006 Fidesz trajectory FALSE 0.329623909 0.2496998 0.40835205 0.68546738575 0.62654775 0.744955475 both_direct_or_nearby
7 1691 Alliance of Federation of Young Democrats - Christian Democratic People's Party HU 2010 Fidesz trajectory FALSE 0.41832002325 0.339523125 0.49530825 0.68100314675 0.627436275 0.7387168 both_direct_or_nearby
8 1691 Alliance of Federation of Young Democrats - Christian Democratic People's Party HU 2014 Fidesz trajectory FALSE 0.37904524325 0.3043576 0.4502539 0.7295393835 0.676723975 0.78351645 both_direct_or_nearby
9 1691 Alliance of Federation of Young Democrats - Christian Democratic People's Party HU 2018 Fidesz trajectory FALSE 0.371665591375 0.280800025 0.4637821 0.86823710225 0.8161685 0.915369475 both_direct_or_nearby
10 1691 Alliance of Federation of Young Democrats - Christian Democratic People's Party HU 2022 Fidesz trajectory TRUE Fidesz 2022 0.31143068805 0.19161285 0.4433925 0.85010683275 0.781581375 0.9084991 both_direct_or_nearby
11 379 Social Democratic Party DK 2007 Danish Social Democrats trajectory TRUE Danish Social Democrats 2007 0.2504832553 0.1616851 0.347202325 0.377073825875 0.288222975 0.46642125 both_direct_or_nearby
12 379 Social Democratic Party DK 2011 Danish Social Democrats trajectory FALSE 0.277551306 0.187687975 0.3698644 0.44217709925 0.351102525 0.5332076 both_direct_or_nearby
13 379 Social Democratic Party DK 2015 Danish Social Democrats trajectory FALSE 0.2492670365 0.160125675 0.34358355 0.5274942445 0.44580275 0.608968575 both_direct_or_nearby
14 379 Social Democratic Party DK 2019 Danish Social Democrats trajectory TRUE Danish Social Democrats 2019 0.254542113875 0.180740975 0.32727345 0.440971318625 0.38293125 0.4998911 both_direct_or_nearby
15 432 Democratic Party US 1944 US Democrats trajectory TRUE US Democrats 1944 0.698409049125 0.5552958 0.824995025 0.399063251375 0.265179225 0.529592 text_only_direct_or_nearby
16 432 Democratic Party US 1946 US Democrats trajectory FALSE 0.6100566435 0.436287675 0.7680873 0.43006576325 0.30106965 0.5609482 text_only_direct_or_nearby
17 432 Democratic Party US 1948 US Democrats trajectory FALSE 0.516188009 0.347767775 0.6774628 0.4627546565 0.34296995 0.574057075 text_only_direct_or_nearby
18 432 Democratic Party US 1950 US Democrats trajectory FALSE 0.4990402315 0.31624725 0.680389925 0.45428776325 0.329907575 0.576572725 text_only_direct_or_nearby
19 432 Democratic Party US 1952 US Democrats trajectory FALSE 0.480909024125 0.31415515 0.64191195 0.445425776 0.32263375 0.565348275 text_only_direct_or_nearby
20 432 Democratic Party US 1954 US Democrats trajectory FALSE 0.4676351045 0.2860462 0.6559878 0.4442040055 0.31337035 0.57193295 text_only_direct_or_nearby
21 432 Democratic Party US 1956 US Democrats trajectory FALSE 0.454944175625 0.282914075 0.62753175 0.441641760625 0.31338675 0.56900755 text_only_direct_or_nearby
22 432 Democratic Party US 1958 US Democrats trajectory FALSE 0.471283276625 0.28607265 0.6557644 0.4310392955 0.300791925 0.5603127 text_only_direct_or_nearby
23 432 Democratic Party US 1960 US Democrats trajectory FALSE 0.48889281875 0.31862905 0.6559868 0.419887367125 0.2951369 0.5445245 text_only_direct_or_nearby
24 432 Democratic Party US 1962 US Democrats trajectory FALSE 0.51785394875 0.338929125 0.694084875 0.44040438625 0.312552375 0.56582825 text_only_direct_or_nearby
25 432 Democratic Party US 1964 US Democrats trajectory FALSE 0.546579874625 0.39307825 0.694190825 0.4614879695 0.34226625 0.576020475 text_only_direct_or_nearby
26 432 Democratic Party US 1966 US Democrats trajectory FALSE 0.55771690125 0.386799175 0.723825375 0.47960343075 0.362259975 0.59869045 text_only_direct_or_nearby
27 432 Democratic Party US 1968 US Democrats trajectory FALSE 0.56956003125 0.421312425 0.71267515 0.49807209025 0.394480575 0.601277575 both_direct_or_nearby
28 432 Democratic Party US 1970 US Democrats trajectory FALSE 0.51903405975 0.3669889 0.66457315 0.496738669125 0.399482825 0.58992185 both_direct_or_nearby
29 432 Democratic Party US 1972 US Democrats trajectory FALSE 0.4775428755 0.3428972 0.610643875 0.49040686275 0.4030488 0.57786425 both_direct_or_nearby
30 432 Democratic Party US 1974 US Democrats trajectory FALSE 0.47660148325 0.33038635 0.62320975 0.49004719075 0.39855135 0.581602525 both_direct_or_nearby
31 432 Democratic Party US 1976 US Democrats trajectory FALSE 0.464841852875 0.3176285 0.610416 0.481845156875 0.3987983 0.5663995 both_direct_or_nearby
32 432 Democratic Party US 1978 US Democrats trajectory FALSE 0.479180885 0.33296985 0.628182925 0.471634046125 0.3830498 0.559650875 both_direct_or_nearby
33 432 Democratic Party US 1980 US Democrats trajectory FALSE 0.47521863525 0.334265075 0.611498675 0.459089784625 0.374301825 0.540956275 both_direct_or_nearby
34 432 Democratic Party US 1982 US Democrats trajectory FALSE 0.531094059875 0.384578025 0.676582375 0.480199354625 0.390671025 0.568408325 both_direct_or_nearby
35 432 Democratic Party US 1984 US Democrats trajectory FALSE 0.58084896025 0.448074 0.70587575 0.48393646225 0.3990376 0.566166075 both_direct_or_nearby
36 432 Democratic Party US 1986 US Democrats trajectory FALSE 0.590921938875 0.445197875 0.729574825 0.500757938625 0.4131278 0.5871789 both_direct_or_nearby
37 432 Democratic Party US 1988 US Democrats trajectory FALSE 0.591401089625 0.453012225 0.72308005 0.514815462375 0.437706575 0.591401025 both_direct_or_nearby
38 432 Democratic Party US 1990 US Democrats trajectory FALSE 0.587242934375 0.446163525 0.72656675 0.501517254375 0.416105775 0.588248725 both_direct_or_nearby
39 432 Democratic Party US 1992 US Democrats trajectory FALSE 0.5747092955 0.4469363 0.697395475 0.49163971825 0.412797475 0.5705842 both_direct_or_nearby
40 432 Democratic Party US 1994 US Democrats trajectory FALSE 0.55610215325 0.417261925 0.694079775 0.50488034675 0.41940905 0.59045095 both_direct_or_nearby
41 432 Democratic Party US 1996 US Democrats trajectory FALSE 0.537558009875 0.407077 0.66497885 0.534332495875 0.45828705 0.61213325 both_direct_or_nearby
42 432 Democratic Party US 1998 US Democrats trajectory FALSE 0.5346228825 0.397207725 0.667506225 0.51719082575 0.433112 0.601775975 both_direct_or_nearby
43 432 Democratic Party US 2000 US Democrats trajectory FALSE 0.52560124375 0.400391675 0.647465875 0.5223177775 0.4416794 0.60143625 both_direct_or_nearby
44 432 Democratic Party US 2002 US Democrats trajectory FALSE 0.52842955525 0.391998875 0.66564455 0.50836329775 0.423691075 0.59134925 both_direct_or_nearby
45 432 Democratic Party US 2004 US Democrats trajectory FALSE 0.543902436 0.4145262 0.671430825 0.516749446 0.441188025 0.59188105 both_direct_or_nearby
46 432 Democratic Party US 2006 US Democrats trajectory FALSE 0.54177734475 0.400920425 0.677932225 0.501197753875 0.41943865 0.582125475 both_direct_or_nearby
47 432 Democratic Party US 2008 US Democrats trajectory FALSE 0.545419757375 0.4161232 0.673619225 0.51274549925 0.4396938 0.58390315 both_direct_or_nearby
48 432 Democratic Party US 2010 US Democrats trajectory FALSE 0.538199294125 0.3999131 0.67284665 0.454230253125 0.367953775 0.5372262 both_direct_or_nearby
49 432 Democratic Party US 2012 US Democrats trajectory FALSE 0.5370862765 0.417647925 0.656738175 0.421189865125 0.344467325 0.497562075 both_direct_or_nearby
50 432 Democratic Party US 2014 US Democrats trajectory FALSE 0.462867505375 0.326761075 0.602355425 0.389843067375 0.309037225 0.471238225 both_direct_or_nearby
51 432 Democratic Party US 2016 US Democrats trajectory FALSE 0.388854405625 0.2650008 0.511855575 0.371516706875 0.296737875 0.446610025 both_direct_or_nearby
52 432 Democratic Party US 2020 US Democrats trajectory TRUE US Democrats 2020 0.299892256625 0.1963003 0.410606025 0.3345769065 0.263694925 0.405684575 both_direct_or_nearby
53 1545 The Left DE 2021 Standalone anchors anchor TRUE The Left 2021 0.05463340125125 0.0205853625 0.104672875 0.2266517688 0.13204575 0.336095325 both_direct_or_nearby
54 1375 Christian Democratic Union DE 2021 Standalone anchors anchor TRUE CDU 2021 0.57714137175 0.45681705 0.69505505 0.536185121875 0.433751725 0.636189175 text_only_direct_or_nearby
55 1565 Law and Justice PL 2019 Standalone anchors anchor TRUE PiS 2019 0.230162367175 0.159245575 0.300962375 0.841737028125 0.78973335 0.891444425 both_direct_or_nearby
56 1567 Conservative Party GB 1979 Standalone anchors anchor TRUE UK Conservatives 1979 0.863733304625 0.78370345 0.932120225 0.58421918175 0.47261405 0.691922375 both_direct_or_nearby
57 433 National Front FR 2022 Standalone anchors anchor TRUE French National Front 2022 0.524320955125 0.398589175 0.645052275 0.829604491 0.73907015 0.911430725 both_direct_or_nearby
58 809 Republican Party US 2020 Standalone anchors anchor TRUE US Republicans 2020 0.8507495345 0.77742365 0.917357075 0.721311676375 0.65728435 0.78442835 both_direct_or_nearby
validation/outputs/party_trajectory_plot_data.csv
-147
View File
@@ -1,147 +0,0 @@
"party_id","party_label","country","year","source_support_class","dimension","estimate","lower","upper"
1567,"United Kingdom: Conservatives","GB",1945,"text_only_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.7897200205,0.68672145,0.882517725
1567,"United Kingdom: Conservatives","GB",1950,"text_only_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.696324671375,0.58645,0.7999215
1567,"United Kingdom: Conservatives","GB",1951,"text_only_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.648801438125,0.509441425,0.7756712
1567,"United Kingdom: Conservatives","GB",1955,"text_only_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.559596760875,0.4111588,0.696031575
1567,"United Kingdom: Conservatives","GB",1959,"text_only_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.56006642225,0.388645375,0.718084975
1567,"United Kingdom: Conservatives","GB",1964,"text_only_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.713843190625,0.5883803,0.829548525
1567,"United Kingdom: Conservatives","GB",1966,"text_only_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.79834168225,0.6939884,0.890500425
1567,"United Kingdom: Conservatives","GB",1970,"both_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.67897010575,0.55999,0.79320825
1567,"United Kingdom: Conservatives","GB",1974,"both_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.68530368975,0.6022573,0.771763125
1567,"United Kingdom: Conservatives","GB",1979,"both_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.863733304625,0.78370345,0.932120225
1567,"United Kingdom: Conservatives","GB",1983,"both_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.897143095,0.823332125,0.953360675
1567,"United Kingdom: Conservatives","GB",1987,"both_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.864987285375,0.782492075,0.9328753
1567,"United Kingdom: Conservatives","GB",1992,"both_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.80683245025,0.731234925,0.88153825
1567,"United Kingdom: Conservatives","GB",1997,"both_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.815790791,0.741322225,0.886000175
1567,"United Kingdom: Conservatives","GB",2001,"both_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.735943766375,0.64358755,0.825612475
1567,"United Kingdom: Conservatives","GB",2005,"both_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.7468415025,0.657667875,0.8347423
1567,"United Kingdom: Conservatives","GB",2010,"both_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.807639387875,0.737347625,0.877409025
1567,"United Kingdom: Conservatives","GB",2015,"both_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.650294524875,0.582851025,0.72313155
1567,"United Kingdom: Conservatives","GB",2017,"both_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.680683625125,0.607886575,0.758350075
1567,"United Kingdom: Conservatives","GB",2019,"both_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.734806347125,0.6674518,0.805338225
1567,"United Kingdom: Conservatives","GB",2024,"both_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.696441988625,0.611536275,0.7845477
383,"Germany: Social Democrats","DE",1949,"text_only_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.2594422284125,0.124083075,0.416025325
383,"Germany: Social Democrats","DE",1953,"text_only_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.3044620151625,0.172417475,0.44553015
383,"Germany: Social Democrats","DE",1957,"text_only_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.364714905375,0.217271,0.518439625
383,"Germany: Social Democrats","DE",1961,"text_only_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.45071135275,0.3107251,0.58867
383,"Germany: Social Democrats","DE",1965,"text_only_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.40004889475,0.253314775,0.5547562
383,"Germany: Social Democrats","DE",1969,"text_only_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.36430581075,0.234999825,0.496653
383,"Germany: Social Democrats","DE",1972,"both_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.271573270375,0.162936225,0.38761415
383,"Germany: Social Democrats","DE",1976,"both_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.22760841445,0.1408578,0.317522325
383,"Germany: Social Democrats","DE",1980,"both_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.2854944402625,0.176353725,0.402044875
383,"Germany: Social Democrats","DE",1983,"both_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.3201057485,0.198932275,0.449359525
383,"Germany: Social Democrats","DE",1987,"both_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.3082503073875,0.1890146,0.43586885
383,"Germany: Social Democrats","DE",1990,"both_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.2997481731625,0.1826493,0.42186305
383,"Germany: Social Democrats","DE",1994,"both_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.344258320125,0.247450525,0.440361825
383,"Germany: Social Democrats","DE",1998,"both_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.42037938775,0.335025575,0.504438225
383,"Germany: Social Democrats","DE",2002,"both_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.354348980875,0.285402475,0.419218875
383,"Germany: Social Democrats","DE",2005,"both_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.408510935875,0.326714325,0.4912897
383,"Germany: Social Democrats","DE",2009,"both_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.2258038923125,0.154613,0.2986832
383,"Germany: Social Democrats","DE",2013,"both_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.2547526295,0.177729475,0.3305311
383,"Germany: Social Democrats","DE",2017,"both_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.2187940564125,0.150431,0.288139
383,"Germany: Social Democrats","DE",2021,"both_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.2363366825,0.148430575,0.330595375
383,"Germany: Social Democrats","DE",2025,"both_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.24988987125,0.155485225,0.353246025
379,"Denmark: Social Democrats","DK",1945,"text_only_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.39289630125,0.306313775,0.4744366
379,"Denmark: Social Democrats","DK",1947,"text_only_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.4133295765,0.326647125,0.497578325
379,"Denmark: Social Democrats","DK",1950,"text_only_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.402314539625,0.313989,0.48990055
379,"Denmark: Social Democrats","DK",1953,"text_only_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.404059824625,0.31188405,0.492347325
379,"Denmark: Social Democrats","DK",1957,"text_only_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.386770333875,0.2915608,0.4740622
379,"Denmark: Social Democrats","DK",1960,"text_only_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.39128767025,0.30583805,0.46915175
379,"Denmark: Social Democrats","DK",1964,"text_only_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.41323511225,0.3319368,0.490628525
379,"Denmark: Social Democrats","DK",1966,"text_only_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.424408032125,0.348613025,0.502216325
379,"Denmark: Social Democrats","DK",1968,"text_only_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.426020581125,0.346608825,0.502008425
379,"Denmark: Social Democrats","DK",1971,"both_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.3838693815,0.31048555,0.4534922
379,"Denmark: Social Democrats","DK",1973,"both_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.36916859375,0.292048475,0.4383149
379,"Denmark: Social Democrats","DK",1975,"both_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.2551262250375,0.1655264,0.348229075
379,"Denmark: Social Democrats","DK",1977,"both_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.2030203874375,0.11497425,0.301540125
379,"Denmark: Social Democrats","DK",1979,"both_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.1862332029375,0.10144465,0.2859892
379,"Denmark: Social Democrats","DK",1981,"both_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.1919036092625,0.1020977,0.2975764
379,"Denmark: Social Democrats","DK",1984,"both_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.1734391782625,0.08982039,0.2725962
379,"Denmark: Social Democrats","DK",1987,"both_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.1872400464625,0.10188485,0.281978775
379,"Denmark: Social Democrats","DK",1988,"both_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.1844144026,0.10014465,0.278666375
379,"Denmark: Social Democrats","DK",1990,"both_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.1593657011125,0.0820198525,0.250674325
379,"Denmark: Social Democrats","DK",1994,"both_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.18027195025,0.0911998025,0.286319075
379,"Denmark: Social Democrats","DK",1998,"both_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.2332968959625,0.14133775,0.3324363
379,"Denmark: Social Democrats","DK",2001,"both_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.25665459875,0.167550175,0.3497182
379,"Denmark: Social Democrats","DK",2005,"both_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.243111738,0.15668705,0.33332095
379,"Denmark: Social Democrats","DK",2007,"both_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.2504832553,0.1616851,0.347202325
379,"Denmark: Social Democrats","DK",2011,"both_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.277551306,0.187687975,0.3698644
379,"Denmark: Social Democrats","DK",2015,"both_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.2492670365,0.160125675,0.34358355
379,"Denmark: Social Democrats","DK",2019,"both_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.254542113875,0.180740975,0.32727345
409,"Sweden: Sweden Democrats","SE",2010,"both_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.57402493025,0.47088145,0.681297275
409,"Sweden: Sweden Democrats","SE",2014,"both_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.514751535125,0.4326713,0.602047575
409,"Sweden: Sweden Democrats","SE",2018,"both_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.499110805875,0.397517425,0.59893585
409,"Sweden: Sweden Democrats","SE",2022,"both_direct_or_nearby","Economic",0.609638368125,0.490017925,0.7238046
1567,"United Kingdom: Conservatives","GB",1945,"text_only_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.42283955775,0.30617415,0.539308425
1567,"United Kingdom: Conservatives","GB",1950,"text_only_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.597652829625,0.493804425,0.695553875
1567,"United Kingdom: Conservatives","GB",1951,"text_only_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.5963407815,0.4953524,0.694196075
1567,"United Kingdom: Conservatives","GB",1955,"text_only_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.4481433145,0.349619975,0.546246075
1567,"United Kingdom: Conservatives","GB",1959,"text_only_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.379823589625,0.24070795,0.5271287
1567,"United Kingdom: Conservatives","GB",1964,"text_only_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.4359372675,0.309309225,0.5597016
1567,"United Kingdom: Conservatives","GB",1966,"text_only_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.433826746,0.305561125,0.564284875
1567,"United Kingdom: Conservatives","GB",1970,"both_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.586682156125,0.487144225,0.681696075
1567,"United Kingdom: Conservatives","GB",1974,"both_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.582726903625,0.512885,0.65400205
1567,"United Kingdom: Conservatives","GB",1979,"both_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.58421918175,0.47261405,0.691922375
1567,"United Kingdom: Conservatives","GB",1983,"both_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.54862467925,0.4436958,0.651204175
1567,"United Kingdom: Conservatives","GB",1987,"both_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.5044723465,0.398577575,0.60606875
1567,"United Kingdom: Conservatives","GB",1992,"both_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.608807442,0.53829935,0.67952055
1567,"United Kingdom: Conservatives","GB",1997,"both_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.653249609625,0.5903779,0.719252725
1567,"United Kingdom: Conservatives","GB",2001,"both_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.62022832225,0.5519112,0.68966615
1567,"United Kingdom: Conservatives","GB",2005,"both_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.63051460775,0.562743875,0.6984813
1567,"United Kingdom: Conservatives","GB",2010,"both_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.515056946125,0.464064225,0.5684148
1567,"United Kingdom: Conservatives","GB",2015,"both_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.53108352025,0.47741145,0.585770875
1567,"United Kingdom: Conservatives","GB",2017,"both_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.550617655875,0.503622825,0.597269
1567,"United Kingdom: Conservatives","GB",2019,"both_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.604817389125,0.5601045,0.6518521
1567,"United Kingdom: Conservatives","GB",2024,"both_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.64147235475,0.568830525,0.717038025
383,"Germany: Social Democrats","DE",1949,"text_only_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.4562653665,0.29105445,0.6148909
383,"Germany: Social Democrats","DE",1953,"text_only_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.41201424225,0.239960775,0.59720855
383,"Germany: Social Democrats","DE",1957,"text_only_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.361933815225,0.2020638,0.530546125
383,"Germany: Social Democrats","DE",1961,"text_only_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.3403875836625,0.189634975,0.502483725
383,"Germany: Social Democrats","DE",1965,"text_only_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.349500525125,0.197610625,0.519782425
383,"Germany: Social Democrats","DE",1969,"text_only_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.367453271375,0.2312429,0.51644905
383,"Germany: Social Democrats","DE",1972,"both_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.370199619125,0.2680677,0.473299475
383,"Germany: Social Democrats","DE",1976,"both_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.28787436475,0.21332925,0.364130925
383,"Germany: Social Democrats","DE",1980,"both_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.346500680875,0.245533525,0.448428875
383,"Germany: Social Democrats","DE",1983,"both_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.3643932085,0.2585273,0.474535775
383,"Germany: Social Democrats","DE",1987,"both_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.373242374375,0.266124675,0.479610175
383,"Germany: Social Democrats","DE",1990,"both_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.354967389625,0.25200245,0.460687325
383,"Germany: Social Democrats","DE",1994,"both_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.410000861625,0.3313879,0.488224525
383,"Germany: Social Democrats","DE",1998,"both_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.458140040875,0.389836225,0.525399375
383,"Germany: Social Democrats","DE",2002,"both_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.442940016,0.3876151,0.4964075
383,"Germany: Social Democrats","DE",2005,"both_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.456470195875,0.39176415,0.5189629
383,"Germany: Social Democrats","DE",2009,"both_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.389663805625,0.32557465,0.451253625
383,"Germany: Social Democrats","DE",2013,"both_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.2109102855,0.15503785,0.268407625
383,"Germany: Social Democrats","DE",2017,"both_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.40809383225,0.35346185,0.45866175
383,"Germany: Social Democrats","DE",2021,"both_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.36824540875,0.27656695,0.461600275
383,"Germany: Social Democrats","DE",2025,"both_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.3699090585,0.27155195,0.46999925
379,"Denmark: Social Democrats","DK",1945,"text_only_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.367253073125,0.222935775,0.513292475
379,"Denmark: Social Democrats","DK",1947,"text_only_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.38745918675,0.234832075,0.545806525
379,"Denmark: Social Democrats","DK",1950,"text_only_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.3968814625,0.2531828,0.544707225
379,"Denmark: Social Democrats","DK",1953,"text_only_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.42331649125,0.283525625,0.5604742
379,"Denmark: Social Democrats","DK",1957,"text_only_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.42351804925,0.268476675,0.589941825
379,"Denmark: Social Democrats","DK",1960,"text_only_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.384011194875,0.24432495,0.52920335
379,"Denmark: Social Democrats","DK",1964,"text_only_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.362245514375,0.224588175,0.502448675
379,"Denmark: Social Democrats","DK",1966,"text_only_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.3679157005,0.230511325,0.5031338
379,"Denmark: Social Democrats","DK",1968,"text_only_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.382175081625,0.25659165,0.507958075
379,"Denmark: Social Democrats","DK",1971,"both_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.470225764375,0.36279785,0.577130125
379,"Denmark: Social Democrats","DK",1973,"both_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.501466689875,0.3986878,0.60298055
379,"Denmark: Social Democrats","DK",1975,"both_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.51072920025,0.41364105,0.608167125
379,"Denmark: Social Democrats","DK",1977,"both_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.48888551625,0.3865325,0.588461525
379,"Denmark: Social Democrats","DK",1979,"both_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.469331547625,0.36461055,0.5720459
379,"Denmark: Social Democrats","DK",1981,"both_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.440505821125,0.334911475,0.544872125
379,"Denmark: Social Democrats","DK",1984,"both_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.427927746125,0.3199225,0.535149325
379,"Denmark: Social Democrats","DK",1987,"both_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.42510295375,0.332117075,0.518948075
379,"Denmark: Social Democrats","DK",1988,"both_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.4189467795,0.3290549,0.51075845
379,"Denmark: Social Democrats","DK",1990,"both_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.394384283125,0.289929725,0.498693825
379,"Denmark: Social Democrats","DK",1994,"both_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.365051991,0.259654975,0.469250275
379,"Denmark: Social Democrats","DK",1998,"both_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.4057949125,0.318039475,0.493913625
379,"Denmark: Social Democrats","DK",2001,"both_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.377267655375,0.2986888,0.456555875
379,"Denmark: Social Democrats","DK",2005,"both_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.3840174395,0.296652025,0.472492425
379,"Denmark: Social Democrats","DK",2007,"both_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.377073825875,0.288222975,0.46642125
379,"Denmark: Social Democrats","DK",2011,"both_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.44217709925,0.351102525,0.5332076
379,"Denmark: Social Democrats","DK",2015,"both_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.5274942445,0.44580275,0.608968575
379,"Denmark: Social Democrats","DK",2019,"both_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.440971318625,0.38293125,0.4998911
409,"Sweden: Sweden Democrats","SE",2010,"both_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.721373298875,0.653960175,0.78768305
409,"Sweden: Sweden Democrats","SE",2014,"both_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.750375772125,0.690054075,0.81067825
409,"Sweden: Sweden Democrats","SE",2018,"both_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.671777804625,0.5936524,0.747156725
409,"Sweden: Sweden Democrats","SE",2022,"both_direct_or_nearby","Cultural",0.753425659,0.653108875,0.84672335
1 party_id party_label country year source_support_class dimension estimate lower upper
2 1567 United Kingdom: Conservatives GB 1945 text_only_direct_or_nearby Economic 0.7897200205 0.68672145 0.882517725
3 1567 United Kingdom: Conservatives GB 1950 text_only_direct_or_nearby Economic 0.696324671375 0.58645 0.7999215
4 1567 United Kingdom: Conservatives GB 1951 text_only_direct_or_nearby Economic 0.648801438125 0.509441425 0.7756712
5 1567 United Kingdom: Conservatives GB 1955 text_only_direct_or_nearby Economic 0.559596760875 0.4111588 0.696031575
6 1567 United Kingdom: Conservatives GB 1959 text_only_direct_or_nearby Economic 0.56006642225 0.388645375 0.718084975
7 1567 United Kingdom: Conservatives GB 1964 text_only_direct_or_nearby Economic 0.713843190625 0.5883803 0.829548525
8 1567 United Kingdom: Conservatives GB 1966 text_only_direct_or_nearby Economic 0.79834168225 0.6939884 0.890500425
9 1567 United Kingdom: Conservatives GB 1970 both_direct_or_nearby Economic 0.67897010575 0.55999 0.79320825
10 1567 United Kingdom: Conservatives GB 1974 both_direct_or_nearby Economic 0.68530368975 0.6022573 0.771763125
11 1567 United Kingdom: Conservatives GB 1979 both_direct_or_nearby Economic 0.863733304625 0.78370345 0.932120225
12 1567 United Kingdom: Conservatives GB 1983 both_direct_or_nearby Economic 0.897143095 0.823332125 0.953360675
13 1567 United Kingdom: Conservatives GB 1987 both_direct_or_nearby Economic 0.864987285375 0.782492075 0.9328753
14 1567 United Kingdom: Conservatives GB 1992 both_direct_or_nearby Economic 0.80683245025 0.731234925 0.88153825
15 1567 United Kingdom: Conservatives GB 1997 both_direct_or_nearby Economic 0.815790791 0.741322225 0.886000175
16 1567 United Kingdom: Conservatives GB 2001 both_direct_or_nearby Economic 0.735943766375 0.64358755 0.825612475
17 1567 United Kingdom: Conservatives GB 2005 both_direct_or_nearby Economic 0.7468415025 0.657667875 0.8347423
18 1567 United Kingdom: Conservatives GB 2010 both_direct_or_nearby Economic 0.807639387875 0.737347625 0.877409025
19 1567 United Kingdom: Conservatives GB 2015 both_direct_or_nearby Economic 0.650294524875 0.582851025 0.72313155
20 1567 United Kingdom: Conservatives GB 2017 both_direct_or_nearby Economic 0.680683625125 0.607886575 0.758350075
21 1567 United Kingdom: Conservatives GB 2019 both_direct_or_nearby Economic 0.734806347125 0.6674518 0.805338225
22 1567 United Kingdom: Conservatives GB 2024 both_direct_or_nearby Economic 0.696441988625 0.611536275 0.7845477
23 383 Germany: Social Democrats DE 1949 text_only_direct_or_nearby Economic 0.2594422284125 0.124083075 0.416025325
24 383 Germany: Social Democrats DE 1953 text_only_direct_or_nearby Economic 0.3044620151625 0.172417475 0.44553015
25 383 Germany: Social Democrats DE 1957 text_only_direct_or_nearby Economic 0.364714905375 0.217271 0.518439625
26 383 Germany: Social Democrats DE 1961 text_only_direct_or_nearby Economic 0.45071135275 0.3107251 0.58867
27 383 Germany: Social Democrats DE 1965 text_only_direct_or_nearby Economic 0.40004889475 0.253314775 0.5547562
28 383 Germany: Social Democrats DE 1969 text_only_direct_or_nearby Economic 0.36430581075 0.234999825 0.496653
29 383 Germany: Social Democrats DE 1972 both_direct_or_nearby Economic 0.271573270375 0.162936225 0.38761415
30 383 Germany: Social Democrats DE 1976 both_direct_or_nearby Economic 0.22760841445 0.1408578 0.317522325
31 383 Germany: Social Democrats DE 1980 both_direct_or_nearby Economic 0.2854944402625 0.176353725 0.402044875
32 383 Germany: Social Democrats DE 1983 both_direct_or_nearby Economic 0.3201057485 0.198932275 0.449359525
33 383 Germany: Social Democrats DE 1987 both_direct_or_nearby Economic 0.3082503073875 0.1890146 0.43586885
34 383 Germany: Social Democrats DE 1990 both_direct_or_nearby Economic 0.2997481731625 0.1826493 0.42186305
35 383 Germany: Social Democrats DE 1994 both_direct_or_nearby Economic 0.344258320125 0.247450525 0.440361825
36 383 Germany: Social Democrats DE 1998 both_direct_or_nearby Economic 0.42037938775 0.335025575 0.504438225
37 383 Germany: Social Democrats DE 2002 both_direct_or_nearby Economic 0.354348980875 0.285402475 0.419218875
38 383 Germany: Social Democrats DE 2005 both_direct_or_nearby Economic 0.408510935875 0.326714325 0.4912897
39 383 Germany: Social Democrats DE 2009 both_direct_or_nearby Economic 0.2258038923125 0.154613 0.2986832
40 383 Germany: Social Democrats DE 2013 both_direct_or_nearby Economic 0.2547526295 0.177729475 0.3305311
41 383 Germany: Social Democrats DE 2017 both_direct_or_nearby Economic 0.2187940564125 0.150431 0.288139
42 383 Germany: Social Democrats DE 2021 both_direct_or_nearby Economic 0.2363366825 0.148430575 0.330595375
43 383 Germany: Social Democrats DE 2025 both_direct_or_nearby Economic 0.24988987125 0.155485225 0.353246025
44 379 Denmark: Social Democrats DK 1945 text_only_direct_or_nearby Economic 0.39289630125 0.306313775 0.4744366
45 379 Denmark: Social Democrats DK 1947 text_only_direct_or_nearby Economic 0.4133295765 0.326647125 0.497578325
46 379 Denmark: Social Democrats DK 1950 text_only_direct_or_nearby Economic 0.402314539625 0.313989 0.48990055
47 379 Denmark: Social Democrats DK 1953 text_only_direct_or_nearby Economic 0.404059824625 0.31188405 0.492347325
48 379 Denmark: Social Democrats DK 1957 text_only_direct_or_nearby Economic 0.386770333875 0.2915608 0.4740622
49 379 Denmark: Social Democrats DK 1960 text_only_direct_or_nearby Economic 0.39128767025 0.30583805 0.46915175
50 379 Denmark: Social Democrats DK 1964 text_only_direct_or_nearby Economic 0.41323511225 0.3319368 0.490628525
51 379 Denmark: Social Democrats DK 1966 text_only_direct_or_nearby Economic 0.424408032125 0.348613025 0.502216325
52 379 Denmark: Social Democrats DK 1968 text_only_direct_or_nearby Economic 0.426020581125 0.346608825 0.502008425
53 379 Denmark: Social Democrats DK 1971 both_direct_or_nearby Economic 0.3838693815 0.31048555 0.4534922
54 379 Denmark: Social Democrats DK 1973 both_direct_or_nearby Economic 0.36916859375 0.292048475 0.4383149
55 379 Denmark: Social Democrats DK 1975 both_direct_or_nearby Economic 0.2551262250375 0.1655264 0.348229075
56 379 Denmark: Social Democrats DK 1977 both_direct_or_nearby Economic 0.2030203874375 0.11497425 0.301540125
57 379 Denmark: Social Democrats DK 1979 both_direct_or_nearby Economic 0.1862332029375 0.10144465 0.2859892
58 379 Denmark: Social Democrats DK 1981 both_direct_or_nearby Economic 0.1919036092625 0.1020977 0.2975764
59 379 Denmark: Social Democrats DK 1984 both_direct_or_nearby Economic 0.1734391782625 0.08982039 0.2725962
60 379 Denmark: Social Democrats DK 1987 both_direct_or_nearby Economic 0.1872400464625 0.10188485 0.281978775
61 379 Denmark: Social Democrats DK 1988 both_direct_or_nearby Economic 0.1844144026 0.10014465 0.278666375
62 379 Denmark: Social Democrats DK 1990 both_direct_or_nearby Economic 0.1593657011125 0.0820198525 0.250674325
63 379 Denmark: Social Democrats DK 1994 both_direct_or_nearby Economic 0.18027195025 0.0911998025 0.286319075
64 379 Denmark: Social Democrats DK 1998 both_direct_or_nearby Economic 0.2332968959625 0.14133775 0.3324363
65 379 Denmark: Social Democrats DK 2001 both_direct_or_nearby Economic 0.25665459875 0.167550175 0.3497182
66 379 Denmark: Social Democrats DK 2005 both_direct_or_nearby Economic 0.243111738 0.15668705 0.33332095
67 379 Denmark: Social Democrats DK 2007 both_direct_or_nearby Economic 0.2504832553 0.1616851 0.347202325
68 379 Denmark: Social Democrats DK 2011 both_direct_or_nearby Economic 0.277551306 0.187687975 0.3698644
69 379 Denmark: Social Democrats DK 2015 both_direct_or_nearby Economic 0.2492670365 0.160125675 0.34358355
70 379 Denmark: Social Democrats DK 2019 both_direct_or_nearby Economic 0.254542113875 0.180740975 0.32727345
71 409 Sweden: Sweden Democrats SE 2010 both_direct_or_nearby Economic 0.57402493025 0.47088145 0.681297275
72 409 Sweden: Sweden Democrats SE 2014 both_direct_or_nearby Economic 0.514751535125 0.4326713 0.602047575
73 409 Sweden: Sweden Democrats SE 2018 both_direct_or_nearby Economic 0.499110805875 0.397517425 0.59893585
74 409 Sweden: Sweden Democrats SE 2022 both_direct_or_nearby Economic 0.609638368125 0.490017925 0.7238046
75 1567 United Kingdom: Conservatives GB 1945 text_only_direct_or_nearby Cultural 0.42283955775 0.30617415 0.539308425
76 1567 United Kingdom: Conservatives GB 1950 text_only_direct_or_nearby Cultural 0.597652829625 0.493804425 0.695553875
77 1567 United Kingdom: Conservatives GB 1951 text_only_direct_or_nearby Cultural 0.5963407815 0.4953524 0.694196075
78 1567 United Kingdom: Conservatives GB 1955 text_only_direct_or_nearby Cultural 0.4481433145 0.349619975 0.546246075
79 1567 United Kingdom: Conservatives GB 1959 text_only_direct_or_nearby Cultural 0.379823589625 0.24070795 0.5271287
80 1567 United Kingdom: Conservatives GB 1964 text_only_direct_or_nearby Cultural 0.4359372675 0.309309225 0.5597016
81 1567 United Kingdom: Conservatives GB 1966 text_only_direct_or_nearby Cultural 0.433826746 0.305561125 0.564284875
82 1567 United Kingdom: Conservatives GB 1970 both_direct_or_nearby Cultural 0.586682156125 0.487144225 0.681696075
83 1567 United Kingdom: Conservatives GB 1974 both_direct_or_nearby Cultural 0.582726903625 0.512885 0.65400205
84 1567 United Kingdom: Conservatives GB 1979 both_direct_or_nearby Cultural 0.58421918175 0.47261405 0.691922375
85 1567 United Kingdom: Conservatives GB 1983 both_direct_or_nearby Cultural 0.54862467925 0.4436958 0.651204175
86 1567 United Kingdom: Conservatives GB 1987 both_direct_or_nearby Cultural 0.5044723465 0.398577575 0.60606875
87 1567 United Kingdom: Conservatives GB 1992 both_direct_or_nearby Cultural 0.608807442 0.53829935 0.67952055
88 1567 United Kingdom: Conservatives GB 1997 both_direct_or_nearby Cultural 0.653249609625 0.5903779 0.719252725
89 1567 United Kingdom: Conservatives GB 2001 both_direct_or_nearby Cultural 0.62022832225 0.5519112 0.68966615
90 1567 United Kingdom: Conservatives GB 2005 both_direct_or_nearby Cultural 0.63051460775 0.562743875 0.6984813
91 1567 United Kingdom: Conservatives GB 2010 both_direct_or_nearby Cultural 0.515056946125 0.464064225 0.5684148
92 1567 United Kingdom: Conservatives GB 2015 both_direct_or_nearby Cultural 0.53108352025 0.47741145 0.585770875
93 1567 United Kingdom: Conservatives GB 2017 both_direct_or_nearby Cultural 0.550617655875 0.503622825 0.597269
94 1567 United Kingdom: Conservatives GB 2019 both_direct_or_nearby Cultural 0.604817389125 0.5601045 0.6518521
95 1567 United Kingdom: Conservatives GB 2024 both_direct_or_nearby Cultural 0.64147235475 0.568830525 0.717038025
96 383 Germany: Social Democrats DE 1949 text_only_direct_or_nearby Cultural 0.4562653665 0.29105445 0.6148909
97 383 Germany: Social Democrats DE 1953 text_only_direct_or_nearby Cultural 0.41201424225 0.239960775 0.59720855
98 383 Germany: Social Democrats DE 1957 text_only_direct_or_nearby Cultural 0.361933815225 0.2020638 0.530546125
99 383 Germany: Social Democrats DE 1961 text_only_direct_or_nearby Cultural 0.3403875836625 0.189634975 0.502483725
100 383 Germany: Social Democrats DE 1965 text_only_direct_or_nearby Cultural 0.349500525125 0.197610625 0.519782425
101 383 Germany: Social Democrats DE 1969 text_only_direct_or_nearby Cultural 0.367453271375 0.2312429 0.51644905
102 383 Germany: Social Democrats DE 1972 both_direct_or_nearby Cultural 0.370199619125 0.2680677 0.473299475
103 383 Germany: Social Democrats DE 1976 both_direct_or_nearby Cultural 0.28787436475 0.21332925 0.364130925
104 383 Germany: Social Democrats DE 1980 both_direct_or_nearby Cultural 0.346500680875 0.245533525 0.448428875
105 383 Germany: Social Democrats DE 1983 both_direct_or_nearby Cultural 0.3643932085 0.2585273 0.474535775
106 383 Germany: Social Democrats DE 1987 both_direct_or_nearby Cultural 0.373242374375 0.266124675 0.479610175
107 383 Germany: Social Democrats DE 1990 both_direct_or_nearby Cultural 0.354967389625 0.25200245 0.460687325
108 383 Germany: Social Democrats DE 1994 both_direct_or_nearby Cultural 0.410000861625 0.3313879 0.488224525
109 383 Germany: Social Democrats DE 1998 both_direct_or_nearby Cultural 0.458140040875 0.389836225 0.525399375
110 383 Germany: Social Democrats DE 2002 both_direct_or_nearby Cultural 0.442940016 0.3876151 0.4964075
111 383 Germany: Social Democrats DE 2005 both_direct_or_nearby Cultural 0.456470195875 0.39176415 0.5189629
112 383 Germany: Social Democrats DE 2009 both_direct_or_nearby Cultural 0.389663805625 0.32557465 0.451253625
113 383 Germany: Social Democrats DE 2013 both_direct_or_nearby Cultural 0.2109102855 0.15503785 0.268407625
114 383 Germany: Social Democrats DE 2017 both_direct_or_nearby Cultural 0.40809383225 0.35346185 0.45866175
115 383 Germany: Social Democrats DE 2021 both_direct_or_nearby Cultural 0.36824540875 0.27656695 0.461600275
116 383 Germany: Social Democrats DE 2025 both_direct_or_nearby Cultural 0.3699090585 0.27155195 0.46999925
117 379 Denmark: Social Democrats DK 1945 text_only_direct_or_nearby Cultural 0.367253073125 0.222935775 0.513292475
118 379 Denmark: Social Democrats DK 1947 text_only_direct_or_nearby Cultural 0.38745918675 0.234832075 0.545806525
119 379 Denmark: Social Democrats DK 1950 text_only_direct_or_nearby Cultural 0.3968814625 0.2531828 0.544707225
120 379 Denmark: Social Democrats DK 1953 text_only_direct_or_nearby Cultural 0.42331649125 0.283525625 0.5604742
121 379 Denmark: Social Democrats DK 1957 text_only_direct_or_nearby Cultural 0.42351804925 0.268476675 0.589941825
122 379 Denmark: Social Democrats DK 1960 text_only_direct_or_nearby Cultural 0.384011194875 0.24432495 0.52920335
123 379 Denmark: Social Democrats DK 1964 text_only_direct_or_nearby Cultural 0.362245514375 0.224588175 0.502448675
124 379 Denmark: Social Democrats DK 1966 text_only_direct_or_nearby Cultural 0.3679157005 0.230511325 0.5031338
125 379 Denmark: Social Democrats DK 1968 text_only_direct_or_nearby Cultural 0.382175081625 0.25659165 0.507958075
126 379 Denmark: Social Democrats DK 1971 both_direct_or_nearby Cultural 0.470225764375 0.36279785 0.577130125
127 379 Denmark: Social Democrats DK 1973 both_direct_or_nearby Cultural 0.501466689875 0.3986878 0.60298055
128 379 Denmark: Social Democrats DK 1975 both_direct_or_nearby Cultural 0.51072920025 0.41364105 0.608167125
129 379 Denmark: Social Democrats DK 1977 both_direct_or_nearby Cultural 0.48888551625 0.3865325 0.588461525
130 379 Denmark: Social Democrats DK 1979 both_direct_or_nearby Cultural 0.469331547625 0.36461055 0.5720459
131 379 Denmark: Social Democrats DK 1981 both_direct_or_nearby Cultural 0.440505821125 0.334911475 0.544872125
132 379 Denmark: Social Democrats DK 1984 both_direct_or_nearby Cultural 0.427927746125 0.3199225 0.535149325
133 379 Denmark: Social Democrats DK 1987 both_direct_or_nearby Cultural 0.42510295375 0.332117075 0.518948075
134 379 Denmark: Social Democrats DK 1988 both_direct_or_nearby Cultural 0.4189467795 0.3290549 0.51075845
135 379 Denmark: Social Democrats DK 1990 both_direct_or_nearby Cultural 0.394384283125 0.289929725 0.498693825
136 379 Denmark: Social Democrats DK 1994 both_direct_or_nearby Cultural 0.365051991 0.259654975 0.469250275
137 379 Denmark: Social Democrats DK 1998 both_direct_or_nearby Cultural 0.4057949125 0.318039475 0.493913625
138 379 Denmark: Social Democrats DK 2001 both_direct_or_nearby Cultural 0.377267655375 0.2986888 0.456555875
139 379 Denmark: Social Democrats DK 2005 both_direct_or_nearby Cultural 0.3840174395 0.296652025 0.472492425
140 379 Denmark: Social Democrats DK 2007 both_direct_or_nearby Cultural 0.377073825875 0.288222975 0.46642125
141 379 Denmark: Social Democrats DK 2011 both_direct_or_nearby Cultural 0.44217709925 0.351102525 0.5332076
142 379 Denmark: Social Democrats DK 2015 both_direct_or_nearby Cultural 0.5274942445 0.44580275 0.608968575
143 379 Denmark: Social Democrats DK 2019 both_direct_or_nearby Cultural 0.440971318625 0.38293125 0.4998911
144 409 Sweden: Sweden Democrats SE 2010 both_direct_or_nearby Cultural 0.721373298875 0.653960175 0.78768305
145 409 Sweden: Sweden Democrats SE 2014 both_direct_or_nearby Cultural 0.750375772125 0.690054075 0.81067825
146 409 Sweden: Sweden Democrats SE 2018 both_direct_or_nearby Cultural 0.671777804625 0.5936524 0.747156725
147 409 Sweden: Sweden Democrats SE 2022 both_direct_or_nearby Cultural 0.753425659 0.653108875 0.84672335
validation/plot_scale_examples.R
+179
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@@ -0,0 +1,179 @@
#!/usr/bin/env Rscript
options(stringsAsFactors = FALSE)
if (!requireNamespace("ggplot2", quietly = TRUE)) {
stop("Required package not installed: ggplot2")
}
library(ggplot2)
script_args <- commandArgs(trailingOnly = FALSE)
file_arg <- script_args[grepl("^--file=", script_args)][1]
if (length(file_arg) && !is.na(file_arg)) {
script_path <- normalizePath(sub("^--file=", "", file_arg))
repo_root <- normalizePath(file.path(dirname(script_path), ".."))
} else if (!exists("repo_root")) {
repo_root <- normalizePath(".")
}
setwd(repo_root)
panel_file <- file.path("data", "releases", "party_2d_election_year_panel_v0.csv.gz")
output_dir <- file.path("validation", "outputs")
figure_dir <- file.path("validation", "figures")
if (!file.exists(panel_file)) stop("Required input not found: ", panel_file)
dir.create(output_dir, recursive = TRUE, showWarnings = FALSE)
dir.create(figure_dir, recursive = TRUE, showWarnings = FALSE)
panel <- read.csv(panel_file, check.names = FALSE)
trajectory_spec <- data.frame(
party_id = c(1691, 379, 432),
series = c("Fidesz", "Danish Social Democrats", "US Democrats"),
start_year = c(1990, 2007, 1944),
end_year = c(2022, 2019, 2020)
)
trajectory_rows <- lapply(seq_len(nrow(trajectory_spec)), function(i) {
spec <- trajectory_spec[i, ]
d <- panel[
panel$party_id == spec$party_id &
panel$year >= spec$start_year & panel$year <= spec$end_year,
]
if (!nrow(d)) stop("No trajectory rows found for PartyFacts ", spec$party_id)
d$series <- spec$series
d$display_role <- "trajectory"
d$is_labelled <- d$year %in% c(spec$start_year, spec$end_year)
d$label <- ifelse(d$is_labelled, paste(spec$series, d$year), "")
d[order(d$year), ]
})
trajectories <- do.call(rbind, trajectory_rows)
anchor_spec <- data.frame(
party_id = c(1545, 1375, 1565, 1567, 433, 809),
year = c(2021, 2021, 2019, 1979, 2022, 2020),
label = c(
"The Left 2021", "CDU 2021", "PiS 2019",
"UK Conservatives 1979", "French National Front 2022",
"US Republicans 2020"
)
)
anchors <- merge(anchor_spec, panel, by = c("party_id", "year"), all.x = TRUE, sort = FALSE)
if (anyNA(anchors$economic_lr) || anyNA(anchors$galtan)) {
stop("One or more declared scale anchors are absent from the release panel")
}
anchors$series <- "Standalone anchors"
anchors$display_role <- "anchor"
anchors$is_labelled <- TRUE
plot_columns <- c(
"party_id", "party_name_english", "country", "year", "series",
"display_role", "is_labelled", "label", "economic_lr",
"economic_lr_q025", "economic_lr_q975", "galtan", "galtan_q025",
"galtan_q975", "source_support_class"
)
plot_data <- rbind(trajectories[plot_columns], anchors[plot_columns])
write.csv(
plot_data,
file.path(output_dir, "party_scale_example_plot_data.csv"),
row.names = FALSE,
na = ""
)
labelled <- plot_data[plot_data$is_labelled, ]
label_positions <- data.frame(
label = c(
"Fidesz 1990", "Fidesz 2022",
"Danish Social Democrats 2007", "Danish Social Democrats 2019",
"US Democrats 1944", "US Democrats 2020",
"The Left 2021", "CDU 2021", "PiS 2019",
"UK Conservatives 1979", "French National Front 2022",
"US Republicans 2020"
),
plot_label = c(
"Fidesz\n1990", "Fidesz\n2022",
"Danish Social Democrats\n2007", "Danish Social Democrats\n2019",
"US Democrats\n1944", "US Democrats\n2020",
"The Left\n2021", "CDU\n2021", "PiS\n2019",
"UK Conservatives\n1979", "French National Front\n2022",
"US Republicans\n2020"
),
label_x = c(.84, .36, .12, .33, .73, .36, .11, .65, .14, .84, .58, .88),
label_y = c(.36, .93, .32, .49, .33, .27, .16, .48, .93, .51, .91, .78)
)
labelled <- merge(labelled, label_positions, by = "label", all.x = TRUE, sort = FALSE)
if (anyNA(labelled$label_x) || anyNA(labelled$label_y)) {
stop("Missing manual label position for a displayed scale example")
}
trajectory_levels <- trajectory_spec$series
trajectories$series <- factor(trajectories$series, levels = trajectory_levels)
p <- ggplot() +
geom_path(
data = trajectories,
aes(x = economic_lr, y = galtan, group = series, linetype = series),
colour = "grey25", linewidth = .7,
arrow = grid::arrow(type = "closed", length = grid::unit(.065, "inches"))
) +
geom_point(
data = trajectories,
aes(x = economic_lr, y = galtan),
colour = "grey35", size = 1.1
) +
geom_errorbar(
data = labelled,
aes(x = economic_lr, ymin = galtan_q025, ymax = galtan_q975),
width = 0, colour = "grey45", alpha = .65
) +
geom_errorbar(
data = labelled,
aes(y = galtan, xmin = economic_lr_q025, xmax = economic_lr_q975),
orientation = "y", width = 0, colour = "grey45", alpha = .65
) +
geom_point(
data = anchors,
aes(x = economic_lr, y = galtan),
shape = 21, fill = "white", colour = "black", size = 2.5, stroke = .7
) +
geom_point(
data = labelled[labelled$display_role == "trajectory", ],
aes(x = economic_lr, y = galtan),
shape = 16, colour = "black", size = 2.1
) +
geom_segment(
data = labelled,
aes(x = economic_lr, y = galtan, xend = label_x, yend = label_y),
colour = "grey55", linewidth = .25
) +
geom_text(
data = labelled,
aes(x = label_x, y = label_y, label = plot_label),
size = 2.6, lineheight = .9
) +
scale_linetype_manual(
values = c("Fidesz" = "solid", "Danish Social Democrats" = "dashed", "US Democrats" = "dotdash")
) +
scale_x_continuous(limits = c(0, 1), breaks = c(0, .25, .5, .75, 1)) +
scale_y_continuous(limits = c(0, 1), breaks = c(0, .25, .5, .75, 1)) +
labs(
x = "Economic: left (0) to right (1)",
y = "Cultural: cosmopolitan (0) to traditionalist (1)",
linetype = "Election-year path"
) +
theme_minimal(base_size = 9) +
theme(
panel.grid.minor = element_blank(),
legend.position = "bottom",
legend.title = element_text(face = "bold"),
plot.margin = margin(7, 12, 7, 7)
)
ggsave(
file.path(figure_dir, "party_scale_examples.pdf"),
p, width = 8.8, height = 6.0, device = cairo_pdf
)
message("Wrote validation/outputs/party_scale_example_plot_data.csv")
message("Wrote validation/figures/party_scale_examples.pdf")
validation/run_postprocessing.R
+2 -82
View File
@@ -290,90 +290,10 @@ ggsave(file.path(figure_dir, "vparty_sensitivity_countries.pdf"), p_vparty,
width = 7.2, height = 5.8, device = cairo_pdf)
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
# Illustrative trajectories and landmark cases
# Historically anchored scale examples
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
trajectory_ids <- c(383, 1567, 379, 409)
traj <- panel[panel$party_id %in% trajectory_ids, ]
traj$party_label <- factor(traj$party_id, levels = trajectory_ids,
labels = c("Germany: Social Democrats", "United Kingdom: Conservatives", "Denmark: Social Democrats", "Sweden: Sweden Democrats"))
traj_long <- rbind(
data.frame(traj[c("party_id","party_label","country","year","source_support_class")],
dimension="Economic", estimate=traj$economic_lr,
lower=traj$economic_lr_q025, upper=traj$economic_lr_q975),
data.frame(traj[c("party_id","party_label","country","year","source_support_class")],
dimension="Cultural", estimate=traj$galtan,
lower=traj$galtan_q025, upper=traj$galtan_q975)
)
write_clean_csv(traj_long, file.path(output_dir, "party_trajectory_plot_data.csv"))
p_traj <- ggplot(traj_long, aes(x = year, y = estimate)) +
geom_ribbon(aes(ymin = lower, ymax = upper), fill = "grey85", alpha = 0.5) +
geom_line(colour = "black", linewidth = .65) +
geom_point(colour = "black", size = .9) +
facet_grid(dimension ~ party_label) +
scale_y_continuous(limits = c(0, 1), breaks = c(0, .5, 1)) +
labs(x = "Election year", y = "Posterior position (0–1)") +
theme_revision() +
theme(axis.text.x = element_text(angle = 45, hjust = 1))
ggsave(file.path(figure_dir, "party_trajectories.pdf"), p_traj,
width = 10.2, height = 4.9, device = cairo_pdf)
landmark_spec <- data.frame(
party_id = c(383,383,1375,1375,1516,1516,1567,1567,487,487,409,409,433,433,1545,432,809),
target_year = c(1972,2021,1983,2021,1983,1997,1979,2019,1994,2022,2010,2022,1988,2022,2021,2020,2020),
label = c("German Social Democrats 1972","German Social Democrats 2021","German Christian Democrats 1983","German Christian Democrats 2021","Labour 1983","Labour 1997",
"Conservatives 1979","Conservatives 2019","Swedish Social Democrats 1994","Swedish Social Democrats 2022",
"Sweden Democrats 2010","Sweden Democrats 2022","French National Front 1988","French National Front 2022",
"The Left 2021","US Democrats 2020","US Republicans 2020")
)
landmark_rows <- lapply(seq_len(nrow(landmark_spec)), function(i) {
spec <- landmark_spec[i, ]
d <- panel[panel$party_id == spec$party_id & abs(panel$year - spec$target_year) <= 3, ]
if (!nrow(d)) return(data.frame(spec, status="missing", actual_year=NA, economic_lr=NA, galtan=NA))
d <- d[which.min(abs(d$year - spec$target_year)), ]
data.frame(spec, status=ifelse(d$year == spec$target_year, "exact", "nearest within 3 years"),
actual_year=d$year, party_name=d$party_name_english,
country=d$country, economic_lr=d$economic_lr, economic_lower=d$economic_lr_q025,
economic_upper=d$economic_lr_q975, galtan=d$galtan,
galtan_lower=d$galtan_q025, galtan_upper=d$galtan_q975,
source_support_class=d$source_support_class)
})
landmarks <- do.call(rbind, landmark_rows)
landmarks$era <- ifelse(landmarks$target_year < 2000, "Historical & Cold War Era (1970–1999)", "Contemporary Era (2000–2022)")
landmarks$era <- factor(landmarks$era, levels = c("Historical & Cold War Era (1970–1999)", "Contemporary Era (2000–2022)"))
write_clean_csv(landmarks, file.path(output_dir, "party_landmark_plot_data.csv"))
plot_landmarks <- landmarks[!is.na(landmarks$economic_lr), ]
label_offsets <- data.frame(
label = landmark_spec$label,
dx = c(-.060,-.060,-.055,.045,-.040,-.060,.035,-.055,-.005,.080,-.060,.060,.030,-.030,.035,.080,.025),
dy = c(.070,.040,.055,-.035,-.070,-.040,-.025,.030,.040,.060,-.035,.035,.035,.050,.035,-.060,.035)
)
plot_landmarks <- merge(plot_landmarks, label_offsets, by = "label", all.x = TRUE, sort = FALSE)
plot_landmarks$label_x <- pmin(.98, pmax(.02, plot_landmarks$economic_lr + plot_landmarks$dx))
plot_landmarks$label_y <- pmin(.98, pmax(.02, plot_landmarks$galtan + plot_landmarks$dy))
# Country shapes for clear grayscale distinction
country_shapes <- c(DE = 16, GB = 17, SE = 15, FR = 18, US = 8)
p_land <- ggplot(plot_landmarks, aes(x = economic_lr, y = galtan)) +
geom_errorbar(aes(ymin = galtan_lower, ymax = galtan_upper), width = 0, alpha = .35, colour = "grey30") +
geom_errorbar(aes(xmin = economic_lower, xmax = economic_upper), orientation = "y", width = 0, alpha = .35, colour = "grey30") +
geom_segment(aes(xend = label_x, yend = label_y), linewidth = .2, colour = "grey50") +
geom_point(aes(shape = country), size = 2.2, fill = "black", colour = "black") +
geom_text(aes(x = label_x, y = label_y, label = label), size = 2.4,
check_overlap = TRUE, show.legend = FALSE) +
facet_wrap(~era, ncol = 2) +
scale_shape_manual(values = country_shapes) +
scale_x_continuous(limits = c(0,1), breaks = c(0,.25,.5,.75,1)) +
scale_y_continuous(limits = c(0,1), breaks = c(0,.25,.5,.75,1)) +
labs(x = "Economic: left (0) to right (1)",
y = "Cultural: cosmopolitan (0) to traditionalist (1)", shape = "Country") +
theme_revision()
ggsave(file.path(figure_dir, "party_landmarks.pdf"), p_land,
width = 9.2, height = 5.2, device = cairo_pdf)
source(file.path("validation", "plot_scale_examples.R"), local = TRUE)
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
# Predictive-interval calibration and concentration of misses